School Monopoly as Reverse Patronage

August 8, 2019

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

OCPA carries my article on the government school monopoly as “reverse patronage system”:

In the 19th century, under the patronage system, hiring and firing in most government jobs was directly controlled by political officeholders. Politicians in each party would hire their party’s people to staff the government from top to bottom. (On one famous occasion, Abraham Lincoln kept his Civil War generals waiting while he attended to more important business: deciding which party faction to give control of a Post Office appointment.) Each change of party would bring massive turnover. This was also called the “spoils system” because government jobs were like the spoils of war for whoever won the election. 

It’s not hard to see why we got rid of patronage. But at least it was transparent and evenhanded. Nobody was under any illusions about what was going on. Both sides had equal rights to use the system for their own advantage. And when abuses got too far out of hand, there was always a measure of accountability—however attenuated—at the ballot box.

In the government school monopoly, we have a reverse form of patronage. Instead of politicians picking their government employees, government employees pick their politicians. This is far worse, both because it greatly increases the power of special interests to leech money out of the system and because it undermines the only power that imposed even an attenuated form of accountability upon the old patronage—the power to vote the rascals out.

Let me know what you think!

Beware of Economists Bearing Evidence

July 25, 2019

Image result for beware greeks bearing gifts

Josh Angrist, the MIT economist and a leading voice on research methods and education policy, has a recent piece in Forbes in which he praises the dawning of a new era in which policymakers are guided by economists conducting experimental analyses of promising education reforms.  He writes:

Alas, school reform has rarely been grounded in the sort of empirical analysis required of a new drug or medical treatment. Many educational innovations are propelled primarily by a politician or philanthropist’s good feelings.  It shouldn’t surprise us that weakly researched innovations often lead to disappointing results.  But this unscientific approach is now changing. America’s large urban districts are piloting new models for education delivery, such as small schools, charter schools, various sorts of magnet programs, and vouchers. Importantly, these innovations are often deployed through experiments…  Economists nowadays use these experiments to provide credible, non-partisan evidence on the consequences of school reform.

To be sure, experimental methods are the best way to identify causal effects, and most of my own research uses this approach.  Unfortunately, this improvement in methods does not always yield credible and non-partisan evidence because it is all too common for researchers to misinterpret the policy implications of these experiments, even when they are properly conducted.  Several examples of this type of misinterpretation can be found in Angrist’s brief Forbes article.  I’ll pick one to illustrate the point.

One of Angrist’s claims is that a certain type of charter school has been demonstrated as an effective policy with this rigorous new approach to research: “I’ve seen compelling evidence that urban charter schools emphasizing high expectations and data-driven instruction are winners, capable of closing the black-white achievement gap in just a few years.”  The evidence to which Angrist is primarily referring is the experimental evaluation of Boston charter schools in which he has been involved with several co-authors.  That research has shown large test score gains among students admitted to those Boston charters by lottery relative to those not admitted.

The problem is that increasing test scores does not necessarily mean that a policy is a “winner.” Test scores are an imperfect proxy for a set of knowledge and skills that we hope translate into greater educational and life success for students.  Unfortunately, a growing body of research is showing a disconnect between changing test scores and changing later life outcomes for students. But we don’t have to look across the entire research literature to find numerous examples of this disconnect between changing test scores and changing later life outcomes.  We can find evidence of it in the very Boston charter schools on which Angrist relies for his claim.

A new study by one of Angrist’s former students, Elizabeth Setren, examined test scores for students admitted by lottery to Boston charters but also tracked those students all the way through college completion.  The main purpose of her study was to disaggregate effects for special needs and English language learner (ELL) students, so she never actually reports the combined results for all students.  But we can see from the results for general education students, who comprise the vast majority of students in the study, what the overall results must be.

Like Angrist’s previous research, Setren finds large test score gains for students admitted to Boston charter schools by lottery. As shown in Table 4, general education students admitted to Boston charters benefit by .268 standard deviations (sd) on math tests and .163 sd on English Language Arts tests.  ELL and special ed charter students show similar test score benefits.  But as shown in Table 5, Boston charter school students are no more likely to graduate from high school than the lotteried control group, even five or six years after starting high school.

In Table 6, we can see that despite this lack of improvement in high school graduation rates, Boston charters are more likely to have their general education students enroll in post-secondary education, driven largely by an increase in enrollment in 4-year institutions with a possible decline in enrollment in 2-year schools.  Boston charters’ special needs students show no statistically significant increase in post-secondary enrollment.  Toward the bottom of Table 6 we can see college completion rates. Neither special needs nor general education students are more likely to complete a post-secondary degree in 4 years than the control group of students denied admission to Boston charters by lottery.  In fact, the estimated effect for general education students is negative, but not statistically significant.

So, the overall picture does not show a policy that is a “winner.” One of Angrist’s former students, using the type of experimental method he endorses to examine the policy he claims is proven to work actually shows that in the long run the policy may produce no benefits or may even produce a harm.  General education students admitted by lottery to Boston charters do experience large test score benefits, but they are no more likely to graduate high school.  Those students are also more likely to enroll in post-secondary education but no more likely to obtain a post-secondary credential than the control group. Students who take out loans to enroll in college but do not finish it may be worse off, so this pattern of results may suggest that Boston charters actually harm their students’ long-term educational outcomes.

And once again large gains in test scores are not a reliable proxy for improvement in later life outcomes.  In the Forbes piece, Angrist suggests otherwise: “Though imperfect, test-based measures of value-added predict gains in important economic outcomes like college enrollment and earnings.”  Notice the rhetorical sleight of hand in Angrist’s claim.  The issue is not whether test scores are correlated with later life outcomes but whether rigorously identified changes in test scores produced by policy interventions translate into later changes in life outcomes.   In the case of Boston charters, changes in test scores are not consistent with changes in later life outcomes, at least for general education students who constitute the bulk of the program.

Angrist is right that experiments are good and useful. But he is wrong about the dawning of a new age of science-driven education policymaking.  Science is only as good as the proxies we use for outcomes we may really care about and only as reliable as the accuracy with which the scientists describe the research literature. So, when economists come to policymakers to say that science has spoken and we now know what works, policymakers have every reason to retain some skepticism.

Updated post note — The original version of this post noted that special needs students failed to improve on test scores but did show a higher likelihood of completing a 2 year college.  That was a correct reading of the results as displayed in Table 4, but was inconsistent with the text of the paper.  The author has acknowledged that the table was in error, so I have modified the post to reflect her corrected results.


Peace Love and Understanding with Sherman Dorn

July 19, 2019

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Over at RedefinED I dip a toe into podcasting with my old nemesis Sherman Dorn (wait…that makes one of us the bad guy right? Not it!) Dr. Dorn and I used to argue about Florida NAEP scores, but now we both live in the Cactus Patch. Anyway Dorn very kindly hosted me at Arizona State to record the podcast, which is in two parts, and (I think) we basically agree that public schools are over-regulated and seem to reach a consensus on a lighter footprint testing system. Along the way we discuss the 20th anniversary of Jeb Bush’s reforms and other stuff. Jayblog fans should take a listen: part I and part II.

Ed Reform: The Next Generation

July 10, 2019


(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Much of the old education policy agenda – indiscriminate spending, top-down technocratic standards – is discredited. What would a next-generation policy agenda for education reform at the state level look like? OCPA publishes my policy brief on the subject.

I argue that the experiences of the past generation point to three promising areas for the next generation: parent choice, professional academic standards, and clean systems of school governance.

On parent choice:

Putting parents in charge is the real accountability system that improves education. It is the only education policy that has consistently worked to raise student outcomes, not just in pilot programs or special cases, but at scale and in a wide variety of cities and states over long periods. The benefits are sometimes moderate in size, and there are cases of failure. But the overall track record not only supports moving forward with choice, it suggests that better policy design would produce bigger improvements. Hence the opportunity for policy entrepreneurs to take the next step.

On standards:

Setting the right standards for public schools is an ongoing need. Systems can’t perform if they don’t have clear goals. Unfortunately, most states have inherited standards that are unclear or too low, as a result of historical factors ranging from ethnic discrimination to messy political battles. Oklahoma’s repeal of Common Core standards, followed by the national collapse of the Common Core project, provides an excellent opportunity for the state to revisit its standards on its own terms. Independent state-standards reforms adopted (for example) in Massachusetts in the 1990s demonstrate the enormous value that comes from states setting their own standards and doing it right.

On governance:

Governance reforms to the public-school system should be ambitious, but aim for clearly defined, non-comprehensive objectives. An effort at comprehensive overhaul is unlikely to be successful; the special interests that have colonized the system are very powerful, with large resources of money and volunteer labor to deploy in political battle, and they would go all out to resist anything that threatens their power at its source (as the ferocity of their opposition to school choice attests). At the same time, small reforms that merely tinker around the edges are not likely to be worth the effort. Governance reforms should be big in terms of ambition, but narrow in terms of scope.

In each area I propose a series of policy specifics for Oklahoma policymakers to consider. And if smart policy entrepreneurs in other states want to crib, there’s no law against that!

Let me know what you think.

Greg Wins Forster-Mathews Bet Yet Again

July 10, 2019
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner GIF - WinnerWinner ChickenDinner MrBean GIFs

Greg Forster after his 9th consecutive win.

(Guest Post by Jason Bedrick)

As regular Jayblog readers know, back in 2011, Brother Greg challenged WaPo’s Jay Mathews to a bet in response to the latter’s prediction that the school choice movement was petering out. Mathews accepted the challenge. Forster would win “if at least ten legislative chambers pass bills in 2011 that either create or expand a private school choice program.” Forster not only won in 2011, he has won in every year since. (For a few examples, see 2015 Part 1 / 2015 Part 2, 2016, and 2017. Note: I’m only including states that added a new program or increased appropriations or available tax credits for an existing program, not those, like Virginia, that only expanded eligibility.)

Here’s a brief list of the new and expanded programs signed into law this year:

  • Arkansas: Tripled the appropriation for the Arkansas Succeeds voucher program for students with special needs or in foster care.
  • Florida: New school voucher program for 18,000 low- and middle-income students that automatically grows by about 7,000 vouchers each year. $23 million additional funding for Gardiner education savings account program for students with special needs.
  • Indiana: Increased the tax-credit scholarship program by $16.5 million over the biennium.
  • Iowa: Increased the tax-credit scholarship program by $2 million over the biennium.
  • Mississippi: Increased funding for the education savings account program by $2 million.
  • Ohio: Increased funding for three voucher programs (the EdChoice Scholarships, the Income-Based Scholarships, and the Cleveland Scholarships) and expanded eligibility for two of them (EdChoice and Income-Based).
  • Pennsylvania: $30 million increase in tax credits available for tax-credit scholarship programs.
  • Tennessee: New school voucher program for low-income students in Davidson and Shelby counties.

Additionally, by my count, here are the states in which at least one legislative chamber passed a new or expanded school choice program:

  • Arkansas (SB 539)
  • North Carolina (HB 966)
  • Oklahoma (SB 407)
  • Utah (SB 177)
  • West Virginia (SB 1040)

Let me know in the comment section if I missed any!

[Note: Updated on July 19 to include the recently signed Ohio expansion and updated July 25 to include the Arkansas expansion.]

Edifice Complex Strikes the Gift of the Colorado

July 8, 2019


(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Herodotus called Egypt “the gift of the Nile” and Arizona is the gift of the Colorado (and a canal). Both Egypt and Arizona have alas been afflicted by an edifice complex- giant mountain sized stone tombs in the case of Egypt, very pricey new construction for districts in the case of Arizona, as I detail in a Chamber Business News column. Any chance $330 per square foot schools will attract tourists thousands of years from now? Warning: reading this piece will expose you to earworm Egyptian themed songs.


Technocratic and Anti-Patriotic — The NYT Brand

July 3, 2019


My favorite part of this is the invocation of “data” to prove the click-bait opinion that the US is just OK. Technocratic and anti-patriotic is precisely the NYT brand.

Of course, the most relevant data might be net migration (or attempted net-migration).  After all, unlike the Soviet Empire, no one is proposing a wall to keep people in.  But the beauty of technocracy is that the technocrats get to pick the metrics.

Similarly, when it comes to school choice one might think that economists would be persuaded simply by the fact that people choose schools to believe that those are likely better for them — revealed preference. But no. They demand test scores, integration measures, social-emotional learning scales, etc.. to judge chosen school quality. Keep measuring (more likely mis-measuring) until the technocrat can find the metric to show how your own better judgement is mistaken.