Fools: How Should We Feel About Them?

March 31, 2016

THE A-TEAM -- Pictured: Mr. T as Sgt. Bosco "B.A." Baracus -- Photo by: Herb Ball/NBCU Photo Bank

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Some fool at an edu-blog in Oklahoma took a swing at criticizing my Win-Win report, summarizing the research on school choice. How did it go for them? Here’s a choice portion of my reply, now posted in full at Choice Remarks:

The most damning charge in their post is that I “cherry pick” the evidence, leaving out studies I don’t like. That would indeed be grievous, if it were true. They back up this charge by saying that I did not include in my review the official study of the D.C. voucher program, headed by Pat Wolf.

The accusation is clear, emphatic, and misspelled: “Patrick Wolfe’s official (and dismal) report (Wolfe et al 2010) on the program in Washington D.C. is not cited, a serious omission.”

Unfortunately, the charge is also false. I cite Wolf’s 2010 report on pages 8, 29, and 31. Oops!

OERC claims Wolf’s report (excuse me, “Wolfe’s” report) is “dismal” for the voucher program, crowing that “Wolfe” found negatively for the program even though he supports vouchers. But while Wolf found no change in test scores, he also found the following:

The Program significantly improved students’ chances of graduating from high school, according to parent reports. Overall, 82 percent of students offered scholarships received a high school diploma, compared to 70 percent of those who applied but were not offered scholarships. This graduation rate improvement also held for the subgroup of OSP students who came from “schools in need of improvement.”

So the study they characterize as “dismal” actually found that the program dramatically reduces high school dropout rates without any corresponding reduction in standards of academic achievement.

Oops again!

Fun fact: Greene’s Law of Conservation of Es states that every time someone adds an E to the end of Pat’s name, somewhere, somehow, someone drops the E from the end of Jay’s name.

Can any of y’all help me? I’m trying to figure out what emotional response is appropriate to this level of foolishness…


Might Greg Rope-a-Dope His Way to Another Win over Jay Mathews?

March 29, 2016

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

So I have not been keeping track this year, and election years are not usually the best for big reforms. The over under is 7 new or expanded programs. It wasn’t looking good in the early rounds, but slowly but surely Greg just might float like a butterfly and sting like a bee his way to (yet another) win.

Florida expanded their ESA, Mississippi seems poised to do the same. South Dakota’s governor signed a small tax credit program, and today comes word of a small voucher program that may pass in Maryland as the result of a budget deal. Am I missing anything so far?


The Race Card Again

March 29, 2016
  • image

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

A gang of the usual suspects has released yet another retread report providing information we already have, dressing it up in shocking language, and using it to play the race card against school choice.

As the Washington Post relates, the study finds – surprise! – private schools are disproportionately white. Obviously this must mean they’re racist and school choice is therefore dangerous.

The Post did quote one sensible fellow who saw through the racket:

Private schools generally want to serve as many students as possible, but they can only serve those who are able to pay….School choice levels the playing field by helping those with lower incomes have access to the choices that others now have and even take for granted. It is not a scandal that those who are able to access better schools choose to do so; it is a scandal that because of the government school monopoly, only some are able to access better schools.

He also pointed out a number of methodological flaws in their work, and cited the body of evidence showing school choice moves students from more-segregated public schools to less-segregated private schools.

Who was that masked man?


The U.S.S. Teacher Recruitment is Sinking Fast

March 29, 2016

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

So college students have lost interest in Education Majors:

ed majors (1)

Several states face very large increases in their youth populations projected by the Census Bureau:

Census

Some states are already experiencing growing teacher shortages, and some traditionally minded folks dream of spending our way out of this,  but absent some awesome spurt of sustained economic growth this seems implausible given things like this that come with an aging population:

Medicaid vs K-12

So student populations project to grow even while the traditional pipeline for teachers shows increasing spare capacity and Baby Boomer teachers retire and states face increasing fiscal strains. Did I miss anything? No? Good- that’s already gratuitous.

So rather than worry about this, perhaps it is best to view it as an opportunity. It’s not like the old-fashioned way of training teachers had much good to say for itself after all:

super chart

College students losing interest in ed majors hints at a broader need to re-imagine the teaching profession more broadly. The status quo is sinking, but a future of a smaller number of higher paid teachers leveraging technology to teach a greater number of students to higher average levels may be possible.

Keeping things the way they are now is neither desirable or possible.


Brown Center concludes CC resulted in less than one point NAEP gains and we already got them

March 24, 2016

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Link here, quote below:

Previous issues of the BCR presented models to classify states by their implementation of CCSS. States that are not followers of CCSS have been reluctant to embrace the changes in curriculum and instruction that are encouraged in those standards. The models also show that CCSS implementation is associated with a change of less than a single NAEP scale score point in both fourth grade reading and eighth grade math. Critics blamed Common Core for disappointing NAEP scores in 2015. The good news for Common Core supporters is that nothing in the analysis supports that charge. The bad news is that there also is no evidence that CCSS has made much of a difference during a six-year period of stagnant NAEP scores.

Of course the Brown Center could be mistaken somehow. Maybe this was somehow worth either fighting for, or else getting bent around the axle over against. If you would like to make an opposing case either way the Jayblog comment section awaits! Otherwise Brown Center gets the benefit of my doubt and I am filing this entire subject away in the part of my wee little brain with all the other stuff that is:

 


I’ve Got a Bad Feeling About This…

March 23, 2016

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Remember when I told you about Clark County (LV) Nevada packing thousands of kids into trailers with long-term substitute teachers some of whom even had BA degrees? Hmmm….well, in addition to explosive population growth and the ongoing retirement of the Baby Boom generation, this might have something to do with it as well:

ed majors (1)

So apparently college freshmen have started to listen to the large number of people who have been through an Ed School and found the experience profoundly unsatisfying. Or perhaps they are looking past that at a public school system that treats you like a 19th Century factory worker rather than a professional. Maybe both things are true. In any case, especially for states with booming K-12 populations, it is time for fresh thinking not on how we train teachers, but also about the deeper issues surrounding undesirability of the profession which goes well beyond compensation issues.


Between the Promise of his greener days and these he masters now

March 21, 2016

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKHihAPr2Rc

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

So I was looking at the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools Dashboard on state charter school sectors trying to figure out how the Arizona Charter sector managed to put it all together to rock the 2015 NAEP like a rock star on an epic hotel room thrashing bender. Just as a reminder, Arizona has long been known as a Wild West of charter schooling- liberal authorizing, relatively light-touch state oversight, etc. Just the sort of thing that a central planner hates. In addition, the sector is not generously funded by national standards, pulling in about $8k per student from all sources, and educates a majority-minority student body. Moreover the Credo analysis from a few years ago held its nose at AZ charter results. And yet, the 2015 NAEP comes in and shows AZ charter students scoring like a New England state in all four exams and these results are backed up by the state AZ Merit exam. What gives?

One possible factor- maturation:

AZ charter sector age

Paul Peterson noted years ago that the Credo analysis of charter test scores had not controlled for two potentially important factors- let’s call them shakedown cruise and transfer effects. Like any social enterprise, a school is unlikely to be at peak effectiveness in the early going.  In 2005-06 Arizona charter schools in years 1-3 outnumbered those that had been operating for 10 or more years three to one. Let the clock run a bit however and by 2013-14 old timers outnumber newbies by more than two to one. As far as transfer effects go, some brand new schools will have nothing but transfers, whereas established schools will typically be breaking in a new class of their youngest grade covered and some transfers. So we waited things out in Arizona and eventually we were rewarded with results like:

8m 2015 AZ Hispanic charter

Well AZ charters- you are growns up, you’re growns up and you’re growns up!

Next factor: churn.

The National Alliance for Public Charter Schools notes that between 2010-11 and 2014-15, 215 new charter schools opened. During the 2010-11 to 2013-14 period 96 Arizona charter schools closed. So factoring in life cycle performance, those 215 that opened may have looked pretty meh when Credo checked in on them as youngsters, but perhaps they were just out having an ale with Falstaff and the gang figuring a few things out getting their sea-legs under them as young organizations.

Let’s assume further that those 96 schools that closed actually were worse than meh on average. Arizona grants 15 year charters, so the oldest of the lot did not start coming up for renewal from the Arizona State Charter School Board until 2010. Charters of course sometimes close due to factors other than state action as well, and academically fantastic schools will be greatly under-represented in this subset. So you open about twice as many schools as you close over the last few years but the ones you open are sorting things out and getting better, while the ones you closed just couldn’t cut it results in:

Florida’s charter sector also rocked the 2015 NAEP. How much did they rock the 2015 NAEP you ask? Well this much:

Hey it’s cute Vermont almost tied Florida charter schools on the reading NAEP, especially since they are 92% Anglo and spend $15,500 per kid. Florida charters btw: 76% minority student body. I’m not going to look up the spending number but it is far less than $15,500. How’s that for closing the achievement gap? If you don’t believe it go and run the numbers for yourself here.

Florida charters seem to be doing something right. Possible maturation factor here as well? I’ll take “Sure Looks that Way to Me” for a thousand Alex:

Florida charter schools age

The National Alliance shows about 300 new charters opening and 101 closing in Florida in recent years. You let parents pick schools that are good fits for their kids, open a new bunch of schools on their way to improving, and close sub-meh, guess what your majority minority sector can rock the NAEP like a New England state.

Now not every charter sector, even among the long-standing ones, sees these kind of results. Many factors can and will influence such scores besides those discussed here. For instance, Michigan charter schools look pretty bad at first blush, but a concentration in Detroit may have something to do with that. The ability to slice and dice the NAEP data has definite limits and multiple factors can be simultaneously at play.  Minnesota however has the nation’s oldest charter law and seems to notably lack the sort of grand-slam ability of the Arizona, Colorado and Florida sectors. A lack of dynamism may be contributing while the average age of Minnesota charter schools has increased, very few new schools have been opening, and very few established schools closing- almost as though charters have their little niche but have been safely contained.

Last month Neerav asked “Is School Supply F***ing Everything?” Maybe so. Keep those new schools coming, let parents sort them out, and if parents don’t torpedo the low-performers don’t renew their charters. Otherwise sit back and enjoy!


Please Check the Scoreboard

March 16, 2016

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

The Arizona Republic ran the following LTE from your favorite bearded wonk today. Okay, okay…fourth or fifth favorite…geez…

Linda Valdez (“How school choice sabotages Latino kids“) asserted that Arizona’s school choice options have been undermining the education of Hispanic students attending district schools.

This assertion cannot, however, withstand scrutiny. The National Assessment of Educational Progress shows that Arizona Hispanic students have made large academic gains.

Since all states began participating in NAEP in 2003, Arizona Hispanic students tied for first for the highest Hispanic on eighth-grade math, third among states in eighth-grade reading gains. Arizona Hispanic students tied for 6th in fourth-grade math and reading gains.

Arizona charter schools have more than done their part with a majority-minority student population and gains above and beyond the statewide average. Arizona Hispanic students attending charter schools, for instance, tied the statewide average for Delaware on eighth-grade math in 2015 on NAEP.

We have ample reason to desire a faster rate of progress, and I agree with Valdez that Arizona’s future rests heavily upon the success of Hispanic students. District schools, however, remain the most generously funded of Arizona’s school options by a wide margin and outcomes for Hispanic students have been trending in a positive direction.


John McCain on the Choice Card vs. Bureaucratic Blob

March 14, 2016

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Senator John McCain took to the pages of the Arizona Republic today to describe how a giant, corrupt and bureaucratic organization has attempted to actively thwart a reform known as the Choice Card. The Choice Card allows beneficiaries the option of seeking services from outside of the indifferent/corrupt/self-serving system.

McCain is describing the Veteran’s Administration, but the song has a familiar tune. Very familiar in fact.


The Case for a Broader Approach to Education

March 9, 2016

The Americans for the Arts recently released a poll finding that the vast majority of Americans agree that “the arts are part of a well-rounded education for K-12 students.”  Over half of respondents “strongly agree.”  Unfortunately, the current trend in ed reform is out of sync with this popular support for the arts in education.

The narrow focus on math and reading achievement is driving out other subjects, including the arts.  Ed reformers may offer rhetorical praise for the arts and a broader education, but most quietly believe that math and reading are of such primary importance that shifting away from the arts to attend more to math and reading might actually be a good thing.

Like most other ed reformers, I used to believe this too.  But more research is beginning to show that a broader education, including the arts, may be essential for later success in math and reading as well as the proper development of civic values and character skills, including tolerance, empathy, and self-regulation.  The narrow focus on math and reading may goose math and reading test scores in the short term but at the expense of the longer-term and broader goals of education.  Parents seem to understand how essential the arts and a broader approach to education are even if this has escaped the highly-credentialed minds of “policy experts” trying to manage schools from afar through test results.

Let me briefly provide some evidence to support the claims above.  First, we have good reason to believe that the arts are being squeezed out of the curriculum.  For example, research by Daphna Bassok, Scott Latham, and Anna Rorem has found a dramatic decline in the role of the arts in school between 1998 and 2011.  Using teacher surveys from the ECLS-K, they find that far fewer teachers in Kindergarten and 1st Grade report teaching Music, Art, Dance, and Theater on a daily or weekly basis, and far more teachers report never covering these subjects at all.  (See their Table reproduced below)

Bassok Table

What evidence do we have that this shift away from the arts to focus more narrowly on math and reading has negative consequences?  David Grissmer and his colleagues are producing a series of studies that suggest how much later success in math, reading, and science depends on early acquisition of the kind of “general knowledge” and fine-motor skills learned through art and other subjects.

In one of these studies they find: “Whereas the early math and reading tests focused mainly on procedural knowledge, the general knowledge test focused mainly on declarative knowledge (i.e., elementary knowledge or comprehension of the external world). General knowledge was the strongest predictor of later reading and science and, along with earlier math, was a strong predictor of later math. General knowledge measured at kindergarten entrance may reflect early comprehension skills that are necessary when reading changes from a more procedural task in early grades (learning to read) to incorporating more comprehension around third through fifth grades (reading to learn).” This is essentially empirical support for the type of argument E.D. Hirsch, Robert Pondiscio, and the folks at Core Knowledge have been making for years.  It’s important for students to know a lot of things about the world, including about Art, History, etc…, to progress academically.  If we narrow education to the mechanics of math and reading as captured by yearly testing, we short-change the broader knowledge that is the key to academic success later.

Less intuitively, they find that the development of fine motor and other “visuo-spatial” skills are also very strong predictors of later academic success.  These are the kinds of things students learn by playing musical instruments or making art projects — activities disappearing from the early school curriculum.  Yet these fine-motor and coordination skills seem to be an important part of brain development that improves math and reading achievement years later.

Grissmer and his colleagues summarize the implications of their findings better than I could:

Our results suggest that the focus of interventions should shift from a primary emphasis on changing the direct math and reading instructional environment to interventions that build better foundational skills of attention and fine motor skills and a better understanding of the world outside schools. The results suggest that current direct math and reading instruction is insufficient to build attention and fine motor skills. Building these skills may rely more on subjects and curricula that have been deemphasized to provide more math and reading instruction: the arts, music, dance, physical education, and free play. Each of these subjects and curricula may need to be redesigned to focus on building foundational skills in the same way that math and reading have been redesigned in recent years. Building stronger knowledge of the external world also suggests that improving early science and social studies curricula are important. Paradoxically, higher long-term achievement in math and reading may require reduced direct emphasis on math and reading and more time and stronger curricula outside math and reading.

“Building stronger knowledge of the external world” might include going on culturally enriching field trips, which have also been disappearing from schools.  In addition to the general knowledge these experiences convey, the research I’ve done with others at the University of Arkansas on the effects of field trips to art museums and to see live theater suggests that these culturally enriching experiences change student values to promote greater tolerance and empathy.

Given that short-term gain in math and reading achievement are only weakly related to later life outcomes, while a broad education that includes the arts and culturally enriching activities may be associated with long-term success, education reformers should wonder whether they are simply rediscovering what most Americans already know — “the arts are part of a well-rounded education for K-12 students.”

(Edited for typos)