Would You Pay $43,479 for a 1971 Impala?

July 19, 2008

Andrew Coulson at Cato does a great job of illustrating how disastrous it is to have had stagnant achievement outcomes for 17 year-old public school students since 1970, while per pupil spending has increased by a factor of 2.3 (adjusted for inflation).  He likens it to paying $43,479 for a 1971 Chevy Impala, which is 2.3 times the $19,011 inflation-adjusted price back then ($3,460 before adjusting for inflation).  Meanwhile, a brand new 2008 Impala sells for $21,975 and comes with features like On-Star, side air bags, and anti-lock brakes that weren’t even imagined in 1971. 

In the automotive industry cars keep getting better with little increase in cost (after inflation), while education has not improved significantly and costs us 2.3 times as much (after inflation).  It isn’t every day that people wish that an industry would be as efficient as car-makers.


Pass the Popcorn: Black Belt Jones

July 18, 2008

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

A few weeks ago, we covered the great cinematic saga of Truck Turner, a multisensory journey through a pimp civil war in 1970s Los Angeles. Your humble correspondent reported that, without a doubt that Truck Turner represented the most delightfully over the top Blaxploitation film.

There is however one contender to the supremacy of Truck. Filmed in the same year (1974) by same filmmakers and using 8 of the same actors as Truck Turner, the film Black Belt Jones is also a cinematic masterpiece of the genre.

The plot of BBJ revolves around an African-American Kung-Fu school in downtown Los Angeles. THE MAN, in this episode portrayed stereotypical Italian mobsters, wants to get their greedy clutches on the kung fu shop so they can destroy it and build a convention center. Remember, no Institute for Justice back in the 1970s.

Scatman Crothers runs the school, and THE MAN begins putting the screws on him to sell his property. Sadly, given his advanced age, years of drinking, gambling and carousing, Scatman’s Kung-Fu powers had grown weak, and he dies during a confrontation with the mob.

Scatman’s death draws the attention of the School of Kung-Fu’s most illustrious alumni, Black Belt Jones, played by the great Jim “Dragon” Kelly. PSSSSRSSST! goes the can of instant whoop-ass that Jones opens up on the spaghetti-eating mobsters.

Now, Black Belt Jones isn’t just about Black empowerment, but also women’s liberation. Jones gets help in his war against THE MAN from the daughter of Scatman, Sydney. Her kung-fu powers are equal those of Jones, and she knows how to put a sexist pig in his place-

Great moments in Women’s Lib

In any event, Netflix BBJ. You’ve never seen fights on a train, the use of undergarments as a weapon in a car chase, or a soap bubble filled climatic battle at a car wash before, but trust me, you need to in order to be that well-rounded highly educated person your mother always wanted you to be.


Bolick on School Choice and the Election

July 17, 2008

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Clint Bolick, recovering from an accident in Wyoming, nevertheless managed to hit the Wall Street Journal this week on education and the Presidential election:

Education is slipping in priority among many voters but not among Hispanics, many of whom see school choice as a deciding factor in whom to vote for this fall. This has implications for the presidential election.

A new poll shows that 82% of Hispanics consider education as one of three most important issues facing this country. The survey also shows that, even while Hispanics trust Democrats over Republicans on education by more than a two-to-one margin, that ratio could change if Republicans heavily promote school choice while Democrats oppose it.

The poll was conducted last year among more than 800 registered Hispanic voters for the Alliance for School Choice and the Hispanic Coalition for Reform and Educational Options, but never publicly released. It was conducted by two polling firms, The Polling Company (which works primarily for Republicans) and the Ampersand Agency, (which polls mostly for Democrats).

This survey found that although Hispanic voters generally consider public schools to be effective, they also favor, by a wide margin, school choice (defined as allowing parents a choice in whether to spend their children’s education dollars in public or private schools).

Fifty-two percent of Hispanic voters have a favorable view of school choice, according to the poll, while only 7% had an unfavorable view. When asked about vouchers specifically, 32% expressed a favorable opinion compared to 13% unfavorable.

But where the poll really gets interesting is on school choice as an electoral issue: 65% of those surveyed reported that they would be more likely to support a candidate for office who supports school choice, including 35% who said they would be “much more likely.” Only 19% said they would be less likely to vote for a pro-school choice candidate.

These numbers were high regardless of whether the person was of Mexican, Puerto Rican or Cuban descent. They also transcended party affiliation: 67% of Republicans, 70% of independents and 63% of Democrats preferring pro-school choice candidates. And 70% of those who prefer pro-school choice candidates — including 66% of Democrats — said they would cross party lines to vote for a candidate who supports school choice over one who opposes it.

Barack Obama has hinted at being open to serious education reform. Before the Wisconsin primary in February, he praised Milwaukee’s highly successful school-voucher program. But, facing furious criticism from the establishment, which is disproportionately influential in Democratic politics, he backtracked.

John McCain has been a consistent supporter of school choice and passionately endorsed it during one of the Republican debates, although the issue is far from a mainstay of his campaign. His appointment of pro-school choice former Arizona Superintendent Lisa Graham Keegan as his campaign’s top education adviser may signal a new emphasis.

Sen. Obama will count heavily on teachers’ unions for support. The unions, though, have nowhere else to go. Hispanics do. If Mr. Obama opposes school choice, he will cede to his opponent a huge opportunity to make inroads among Hispanic voters — if Sen. McCain seizes it.

Hispanic votes will be crucial in key battleground states, including Florida, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. George W. Bush won 40% of Hispanic votes in 2004, but support slipped to 30% for GOP congressional candidates in 2006. Mr. Obama fared poorly among Hispanics in the presidential primaries, while Mr. McCain carried 74% of Hispanic votes when he won re-election to the Senate in 2004. All that adds up to this: Hispanics voting on school choice could tip the balance of the election.

Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly young and have exhibited a propensity toward political independence — and no issue is more tangible for them than educational opportunity. If Hispanics align their voting with the educational interests of their children, it could alter the electoral landscape — not merely for this election, but permanently.


Being Misquoted

July 17, 2008

Dean Millot has a new post attacking me on the peer review issue that Eduwonkette promotes on her own site.

But Dean Millot is being fundamentally dishonest in that he misquotes me. He says that I argue: “In short, I see no problem with research becoming public with little or no review.”

In fact I wrote: “In short, I see no problem with research initially becoming public with little or no review.” (See here )

The absence of the word “initially” makes quite a difference and sets up the straw man that Millot wishes to knock down. The issue is not whether research can benefit from peer review, but whether it is inappropriate to make it publicly available INITIALLY, before it has received peer review.

Readers may want to wonder about the credibility of Millot’s claim that “One of the reasons I do my best to quote the very words of people I write about in edbizbuzz is that I prefer to fight fair.”

And so much for Eduwonkette’s praise of Millot’s “measured, careful, and thoughtful analysis.”

I’m waiting for the correction and apology from both of them.


Educating Journalists about Education Science

July 16, 2008

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Don’t worry, this post is definitely not a continuation of the recent big dustup about 1) whether it’s naughty for scholars to provide journalists with accurate information about their work; and 2) whether it’s naughty for anonymous bloggers to argue that scholars’ motives are relelvant to their credibility, but bloggers’ motives aren’t relevant to theirs (which reminds me of Pat Moynihan’s quip about the Supreme Court cases, since overturned, holding that government can’t subsidize private school books but can subsidize classroom equipment such as maps; Moynihan asked, “What about atlases?” – books of maps? What about scholars who are bloggers? Or bloggers who write about scholarly studies? Once you start legitimizing ad hominem arguments, where do you stop?).

But I would like to expand on a comment that Eduwonk made during said dustup, which deserves more attention and has significance well beyond the issues that were at stake in that squabble. The comment got lost in the exchange because it was somewhat tangential to the main points of contention.

He wrote:

Not infrequently newspapers get snookered on research and most consumers of this information lack the technical skills to evaluate much of the work for themselves.   As education research has become more quantitative — a good thing — it’s also become less accessible and there is, I’d argue, more an asymmetry to the information market out there than a fully functioning marketplace of ideas right now.  In terms of remedies there is no substitute for smart consumption of information and research, but we’re not there yet as a field.

We are living in the first golden age of education research, brought on by the advent of systematic data collection, which every other field of human endeavor began undertaking a long time ago but which education is only getting around to now because it has been shielded from pressure to improve thanks to its protected government monopoly. Given the explosion of new information that’s becoming available, educating journalists about quantitative research is a huge problem. Jay is right that there is a marketplace of ideas. There really can’t help but be one; the idea some people seem to have that we can forbid people who own information from spreading it around as much as they want is silly. But just because there’s a market doesn’t mean there’s a perfect market, and Eduwonk is right that markets require informed consumers to function well. The current state of methodological ignorance among journalists does hinder the market of ideas from functioning as well as it should. (I’ll bet Jay would agree.)

As it happens, the same subject came up this morning in a completely different context, as my co-workers and I struggled to figure out the best way to present the findings of an empirical study we’re coming out with so that journalists will be able to follow them. And I wasn’t there, but I hear this topic also came up at a bloggers’ panel at the recent conference of the Education Writers’ Association.

Here at the Friedman Foundation, this has been a topic of great importance to us for some time, since exposing the bad and even bogus research that’s used to justify the status quo is one of our perennial challenges. We took a stab at composing a journalist’s guide to research methods. It went over well when we first distributed it (at last year’s EWA, if memory serves). But it’s necessarily very basic stuff.

Eduwonk is also right about journalists having been snookered by lousy research, and I think that has had both good and bad effects. The good news is that I’ve noticed a clear trend toward greater care in reporting the results of studies (not at propaganda factories like the New York Times, of course, but at serious newspapers). In particular, we’re seeing journalists talk about studies in the context of previous studies that have looked at the same question. Of course, we have a long way to go. But we’re on the way up.

On the bad side, however, I have also noticed a greater reluctance to cover studies at all. Part of that is no doubt due to the increase in volume. I’m young, but even I can remember the heady days of 2003 when any serious empirical study on the effects of a controversial education policy (vouchers, charters, high-stakes testing) would get at least some coverage. Now it’s different, and (to echo Eduwonk) that’s a good thing. But I think it’s extremely unlikely that this is the only factor at work. Junk science has poisoned the well for serious research. No doubt that was part of its intended purpose (although of course the motives of those who produce it have no relevance to its scientific merts or lack thereof).

My hope is that journalists will soon realize they’re getting left behind if they don’t learn how to cover the research accurately. Their job is to go where the news is. If the news is in quantitative research – and that is in fact where a lot of it is – they’ll have to learn how to get there.

Also, the changing media landscape will help. The old idea that journalists must be neutral stenographers with Olympian detachment from all the issues they cover is an artifact of the mid-20th-century role of the media as oligarchic gatekeeper, and is rapidly dying out. As “news” increasingly includes coverage by people who are actively engaged in a field, even as advocates, we can expect the news to be increasingly provided by people with greater amounts of specialized knowledge. (By the way, the old idea of the scholar as detached Olympian stenographer is equally an artifact of vanished circumstances, and will probably be the next thing to go; see the Our Challenge to You statement on the inside cover of any empirical study published by the Friedman Foundation for our views on the relationship between advocacy and scholarship.)

An optimistic view, yes – but since my optimism on other subjects has been triumphantly vindicated over the past year, even when the conventional wisdom said to head for the hills, I think I’ll let it ride.


I Love It When a Plan Comes Together

July 15, 2008

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Recently I wrote about Arizona’s system of testing having jumped the shark. The cut scores for the AIMS had been dropped severely, and the state’s version of the Terra Nova exam spun a tale of Arizona students scoring above the national average in every grade and subject tested. Arizonans were asked to believe this, despite having a very difficult to educate K-12 population and NAEP scores below the national average in every test given since the early 1990s.

I am pleased to say that the Arizona legislature, acting in a bipartisan fashion, took corrective action. Essentially they limited the current testing contracts to a single year, and appointed a commission to design a new testing system, specifying the use of a college readiness exam as a graduation exam along the lines of the Michigan model with the ACT.

The challenge now will be for the commission to create a challenging, consistent system of testing providing proper transparency for parents, teachers, administrators and policymakers. The first step was to admit that there was a problem, which the Arizona legislature has now done emphatically.


It Never Ends

July 14, 2008

I thought that the exchange with Eduwonkette over the appropriateness of releasing research without peer review had run its course with my last post.  But it seems that it will never end.  Here is her latest post and here is the reply that I posted in her comment section:

Eduwonkette is attempting to change the subject. I’ve never disputed that peer review can help provide additional assurances to readers about quality.  The issue is whether research ought to be available to the public even if it has not been peer reviewed.  In attacking the release of my most recent study Eduwonkette seems to be arguing that it is inappropriate to release research without peer review, at least under certain conditions that she only applies to research whose findings she does not like.  If she were going to be consistent, she would have to criticize anyone who releases working papers of their research, which would be almost everyone doing serious research.

 

What’s more, she is still trapped in a contradiction: she can’t say that we should analyze the motives of people who release research directly to the public when assessing whether it is appropriate, while she prevents analysis of her own motives because she blogs anonymously.  As I have now said several times, either she drops the suggestion that we analyze motives or she drops her role as an anonymous blogger.  If she refuses to resolve this contradiction, Ed Week should stop lending her their reputation by hosting her blog.  Let her be inconsistent in blogging at the expense of her own anonymous persona and not drain the respectability of Ed Week.

 

Lastly, the comparison of the market for education policy information and the market for cars comes from my most recent post in our exchange, but she oddly does not credit me here. (See https://jaypgreene.com/2008/07/12/see-were-in-italy/ )  Her position seems to be that we ought to forbid (or at least shun) the sale of used cars without warranties (translation: research without peer review).  My argument is that used cars without warranties come at a risk but there are compensating benefits.  Similarly, non-peer-reviewed research has its risks but also its benefits.

 

UPDATE — My exchange with Eduwonkette continues although it seems increasingly pointless.  Here is my (slightly edited) last comment on her site:

“Let’s make this very concrete. Was it inappropriate for Marcus Winters and I to release our social promotion findings in 2004 without peer review, or should we have waited until it had been peer-reviewed and published (in various forms) in 2006, 2007, and again in 2008? If the appropriate thing is to wait, would interest groups, editorial boards, and bloggers similarly hold their tongues until the additional evidence came in?  Would policymakers hold off on decisions that might have come out differently if they had the suppressed information?

Would it have been OK to release in 2004 as long as we tried to make it obscure enough so that people were less likely to find it? What if interest groups, bloggers, etc… found our obscure finding and promoted them (as has happened with Jesse Rothstein’s paper)?

And in saying ‘working papers and thinktank reports are released for entirely different functions’ you are repeating your call for an analysis of motives. You’ve said that think tanks want to influence policy (bad motive) while academics are trying to advance knowledge with each other (good motive). But if academics are serving the public good, shouldn’t they ultimately want to influence policy? I am an academic who also releases working papers through a think tank. Does that make my motives good or bad? I think all of this analysis of motives is silly when the real issue is the truth of claims, not why people are making those claims. Calling for an analysis of motives is especially silly for someone who is trying to influence people anonymously. The fact that you are trying to influence people through a blog does not give you a free pass from having to be consistent on this.”


Blog Rankings

July 14, 2008

This blog is not yet three months old but I am pleased to report that it is off to a good start.  According to Technorati’s rankings, JayPGreene.com is attracting more readers than the American Federation of Teachers’ blog, Edwize, more than Diane Ravitch and Deborah Meier’s, Bridging Differences hosted by Education Week, more than the Reason Foundation’s Out of Control, and the Center for Education Reform’s Edspresso.  It significantly trails the educouple of Eduwonk and Eduwonkette as well as Cato at Liberty (although that’s not primarily an education blog).  Flypaper, which started about the same time as this blog, is also off to a good start.  The Queen of education blogs seems to be Joanne Jacobs.

Here are the Technorati rankings (as of this morning) of education sites that seem to share some of the same audience as this blog.  By no means is this a comprehensive list of education blogs.  And I have no idea how reliable or meaningful Technorati’s rankings really are.  I’d continue blogging no matter what the rankings were because it’s fun.  I imagine the same is true of most others.

  1. Cato at Liberty               3,662
  2. Joanne Jacobs                3,709
  3. Eduwonkette                27,419
  4. Eduwonk                      30,876
  5. Flypaper                       95,943
  6. Jay P. Greene               104,227
  7. Bridging Differences   107,924
  8. D-Ed Reckoning         107,924
  9. AFT’s Edwize              116,227
  10. Edspresso                  123,039
  11. Out of Control            123,039
  12. Core Knowledge         127,851
  13. Sherman Dorn            151,703
  14. EdBizBuzz                   184,730

AJC Op-Ed

July 13, 2008

I have an op-ed in today’s Atlanta Journal Constitution on the social promotion issue in Georgia.


See, we’re in Italy…

July 12, 2008

Stripes

“See, we’re in Italy.  The guy on the top bunk has gotta make the guy on the bottom’s bed all the time.  It’s in the regulations.  If we were in Germany I would have to make yours.  But we’re in Italy, so you’ve
gotta make mine. It’s regulations.”

This is more or less Eduwonkette’s response to my complaint that she can’t argue that the source of information is important in assessing the truth of claims while blogging anonymously.  Her answer is that it’s different for bloggers (in Italy) than for researchers (in Germany).  It’s regulations.

She goes on to describe some differences between different types of information in education policy debates, but it’s not clear why any of those differences would be relevant to whether assessing the source is important for one and not for another.  The closest she comes to explaining why things are meaningfully different is when she says, “And let’s be realistic: an anonymous blogger isn’t shaping public policy.”  So, if information will have no bearing on policy debates, then its source is unimportant.

This would be a consistent argument if she really believed that bloggers had NO influence.  But of course they have at least some influence.  Why else would she and the rest of us be bothering with this?  And if bloggers have some influence, then the same basic principles should apply: either we should analyze the motives of sources of information to assess the truth of claims or we shouldn’t.  I’m in favor of not analyzing motives for anyone since I think that the truth of claims is independent of the motives of the source.  Even bad people can make true arguments.

At the risk of belaboring this issue, maybe I can clarify things by describing the market of ideas in policy debates as being like the market for cars.  We have different levels of confidence in cars that have gone through different processes before being made available for sale.  We could buy a used car from the corner used car dealer with no warranty.  That would be like reading blogs.  We don’t really know whether we are getting a lemon or not, since almost no assurances have been made about quality.  Or we could buy a used car from a larger chain with at least some warranty.  That would be like getting information from newspapers or magazines.  There has been some review and assurance of quality, but we still don’t quite know what we’ll get.  Or we could buy a new car from a major dealer and buy the extended warranty.  That would be like getting information from a peer-reviewed journal.  It may still be a lemon, but we’ve received a lot of assurances that it is not.  And I suppose reading an anonymous blogger is like buying a used car from someone you don’t know in the want ads.  There are trade-offs in getting cars with these different level of assurances about quality, just as there are trade-offs in getting information that has gone through different processes to assure quality. 

Eduwonkette’s argument is essentially that the same rules regarding these trade-offs don’t apply to the market for cars without warranties that do apply to the market for cars with warranties.  My view is that there are only differences in degree, not kind.  Even bad people can sell cars that are good values.

I’ve also noticed that Marc Dean Millot has weighed in on this issue.  He’s just knocking down a straw man.  It is not my position that research doesn’t benefit from peer review.  He can check out my cv to see that I have two dozen peer-reviewed publications, many of which were earlier released directly to the public without review.

I’ve been arguing that the public benefits from seeing research even before it has received peer review because it gets more information faster.  Without the assurances of peer review people will tend to have lower confidence in that research, and their confidence may increase as the research receives those additional assurances.  Millot seems to want to embargo information from the public until it receives peer review.  If he really believes that, then he should criticize every researcher with working papers on the web.  That’s almost everyone doing serious research.

And on his points about ideology tainting research I would suggest that people read Greg Forster’s excellent earlier post on Vouchers: Evidence and Ideology.