Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

July 17, 2009

Normally solid education reporter, Rob Tomsho, has fallen for the Arne Duncan mania by writing an article in today’s WSJ that attributes expansions of charter school laws to Duncan and the $5 billion “race to the top” stimulus money.

As a graph in the print version of the article shows, charters have been expanding steadily for the last several years — all of which was before Arne Duncan and the stimulus money.  The question is whether charters are growing faster than they otherwise would have.  I doubt it.  The progress of charters doesn’t seem any faster to me now than it has been.  After we get all of the numbers in a year or two we can check to confirm my hunch.

I’m afraid that this is just another example of post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, therefore because of this).  Duncan made some speeches and conditioned some fraction of a modest sum on policy changes.  There were some policy changes.  So people are attributing the policy changes to his speeches and tiny financial leverage.


One More Brummett Update

July 16, 2009

Arkansas columnist John Brummett responds to my most recent blog post.  (See also yesterday’s related post here)

 Unfortunately, he continues to change the subject.  The issue is not whether a summer literacy program in Fayetteville is a good program or not.  As I’ve said before, I’m willing to believe that it is.

The issue is whether doubling (or tripling) teacher pay for that program was a good use of additional stimulus dollars.  If it really is a great program, wouldn’t it be better to use those funds to double the number of students who could participate and hire twice as many teachers?  Or how about making the program run twice as long?

Only right-wing zealots would favor halving the number of students or halving the number of days for a beneficial program. 

And one small point — name-calling can be done with adjectives.  Ugly and smelly are adjectives.


Question for Leo: Why is the Citizen’s Civil Rights Commission on your case?

July 16, 2009

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

I’m just starting to read the Citizen Commission on Civil Right’s report National Teacher Unions and the Struggle Over Education Reform, but I’ve already found a wonderful quote:

While teachers’ unions are legitimately concerned with securing fair and unbiased treatment at the hands of management, these concerns have often been translated into fierce opposition to reforms designed to hold schools and their faculties accountable for how their students perform.

This resistance has posed a barrier to improving educational opportunity for the most disadvantaged students and closing the performance gap between them and their more advantaged peers. It has also led to calcified systems in which talented people are deterred from applying or staying as teachers because they believe their skills will not be recognized or rewarded.

Hmmm…does this statement have more than a faint echo of this? I predicted that the political marriage between progressives and education unions would come under increasing strain, and this report is the latest signal.

Question for Leo: how does it feel pretending to be a “progressive” when you are actually a part of the most reactionary force in American politics?


Brummett Update

July 16, 2009

As I warned yesterday, Arkansas columnist John Brummett was preparing another attack on me.  Sure enough, Brummett threw his tantrum.  He opens with name-calling: “He’s right-wing and quite the zealous advocate of many education reform notions.”  

Then he assigns to me responsibility for all sorts of things that aren’t actually attributable to me.  For example, he says (dripping with sarcasm): “He gives [teachers] summers off and calculates their hours of actual classroom instruction and concludes that he knows people in other professional fields who aren’t doing as well or significantly better.” 

I didn’t do any of those things.  Teacher contracts with schools give them the summers off.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates their hourly and weekly pay.  The BLS reports that teachers, on average, make more than other white collar and professional workers on both an hourly and weekly basis.  I just repeated what the BLS reported.

He continues falsely attributing to me claims that were not invented by me: “He faulted [Fayetteville schools] for spending federal stimulus dollars not to stimulate the economy, but to pay teachers what he assumes to be twice their usual hourly rate for something they would have been doing anyway, and for much less, without the stimulus.”  (emphasis added) 

I didn’t assume that teacher pay was doubled with the stimulus dollars.  The Northwest Arkansas Times reported that fact and I, again, just repeated it.

Finally, he makes the case for this use of stimulus dollars: “This is a new and different program that wouldn’t have been undertaken without the extra Title 1 money from the stimulus, [district officials] say. This will be high-intensity summer session with innovative techniques and individualized instruction and counseling, they say.”

I never disputed that the program might be a beneficial one.  As I wrote in my initial post on this topic: ”The Leap Ahead program may well be a good one.”  My objection is to paying teachers twice their normal rate (as reported by the NWAT) and three times what teachers in neighboring Springdale are being paid for the same program.  Nothing in Brummett’s column justifies that.  And he conveniently neglects to mention how Springdale teachers are being paid 1/3 as much for the same thing.

It’s clear that John Brummett uses his column to prosecute his own personal, political agenda.  That’s acceptable for a columnist, but normally they have to be constrained by facts and logic in doing so.  He can’t falsely attribute to me claims that are not my own.  And he can’t switch the issue from doubling (or tripling) teacher pay for a program to the desirability of that program.  At least, his newspaper shouldn’t let him do these things with their paper. 

Who exactly is the zealot here — the person repeating the factual claims of the BLS and the Northwest Arkansas Times or the person omitting crucial facts, falsely attributing claims, and changing the subject?

(This material is also contained in an update to yesterday’s post.  See also a more recent post on the same issue here.)


General Powell Brings in the Heavy Artillery

July 16, 2009

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Leonard Greene of the New York Post turns in an account of Colin Powell telling it like it is at the NAACP convention:

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell joined an NAACP panel of civil-rights giants yesterday and urged a new generation of leaders to declare war on failure in America’s schools. “There’s nothing more important for us as a nation than to sit back down with our kids and return a sense of pride and dignity,” Powell said at the Hilton New York. The retired general was joined by a who’s who of activists, including the Rev. Jesse Jackson, former UN Ambassador Andrew Young, Washington power-broker Vernon Jordan and five of the famed Little Rock Nine students, who faced violent mobs to integrate an Arkansas high school in 1957.

Powell rattled off a string of ignoble statistics, including a 50 percent dropout rate among African-American students, 30 percent of whom are born out of wedlock. “There’s a connection,” Powell said before pointing to the Little Rock alumni. “Is this what they fought for?”


ALELR Wraps Up the NEA Convention

July 15, 2009

Han & Chewie Cantina

Are you union boys having some kind of local trouble?

(Guest post by Greg Forster, with profuse apologies for the pun in the caption above.)

ALELR just sent out the first new Communique in three weeks, and it’s a treasure trove of hidden gems from the recently concluded NEA national convention. Here are a few choice tidbits to convince you to go dig deeper:

1) ALELR shares Matt’s interest in the increasing level of comfort and frankness at NEA about the fact that they have changed from a professional organization to a labor union. He offers a delightful digest of that Chanin speech Matt linked to last week (“Whatever you think of Chanin, he is to be applauded for his clarity in an age where obfuscation is the norm in politics. We shall not see his like again”) and draws attention to this fascinating reflection from notorious NEA double agent Hans Moleman on the longtime internal conflict at the organization between unionists and social radicals.

2) In addition to noting that the . . . uh . . . unpleasantness in Indiana was completely hushed up at the convention, he also relates this exclusive story:

I’m reliably informed that at the NEA board of directors meeting immediately preceding the representative assembly in San Diego, the Indiana contingent was given a standing ovation.

Let’s see: They’ve driven the union into a multi-million dollar debt, failed to notice their insurance trust was being bled dry, fell under national trusteeship, threatened to kick 650 disabled teachers into the street, laid off one-quarter of the staff, put their headquarters building up for sale, watched charter school caps lifted, and failed to block a tuition tax credit for private school students.

Way to go! If only California and New Jersey would follow your lead.

3) He provides highlights from NEA coverage by Rich Gibson of the ed school at San Diego State, a radical-left critic of the unions. Quoting Gibson on Linda Darling-Hammond: She “noted that California prisons spend more per capita than the schools do. She did not say that the guards are members of the AFL-CIO.”

4) As every year, he derives endless amusement from the NBIs (“new business items”) introduced by delegates, which run the gamut from cranky to obnoxious to certifiable. “NBI 38 – a complaint that the Labor Department’s ‘Dictionary of Occupational Titles’ defines teaching as ‘light’ work. A little research shows the term refers only to strength, and how much force one exerts in a typical day. If you are exerting 20 to 50 pounds of force on the kids, you should seek another profession.”

5) Finally, I really must quibble with this – an item from before the NEA convention, but it’s included in the new Communique – making the case that union organizing will not undermine the charter school movement. Now, I prefer having charters over not having them, and I offer no predictions as to whether they are politically viable in the long term, or whether union organizing will subvert them. But the argument ALELR makes here is not sound; maybe his position is right, but his reasoning (or at least one part of it) doesn’t adequately support it.

Responding to a post by Andrew Coulson arguing that government-owned schools must eventually succumb to unionization as the charter sector grows to a larger scale, ALELR writes:

As long as charters stay true to their roots, treat their employees well and weed out failing schools, they’ll be able to resist union and bureaucratic pressures.

In other words, as long as charters don’t succumb to unionism, charters won’ t succumb to unionism!

ObiWanCantina

Let’s just say we’d like to avoid any . . . imperial entanglements.

Han Cantina

Well . . . that’s the real trick, isn’t it?

ALELR thinks you can resist “bureaucratic pressures” even while growing into a huge bureaucracy, as long as you “stay true to your roots.” The mistake here is to think that resisting “bureaucratic pressures” is exogenous from “staying true to your roots,” when in fact those are just two different ways of framing the same issue.  As the charter sector transitions from being a small, scrappy, cottage industry to being a giant, bureaucratically organized political force, whether it can continue to resist bureaucratic pressures and whether it will remain true to its roots are the same thing.

So it’s certainly true that charters will be able to resist unionization as long as they stay true to their roots. But that’s the real trick, isn’t it?


Brummett About to Throw Another Tantrum

July 15, 2009

John Brummett, a columnist in a local paper in Northwest Arkansas called the Morning News, posted on his blog that he is going to write another column attacking me.  At least he gives fair warning.

In 2007 he wrote an angry column in response to a report I co-wrote with Marcus Winters about teacher pay.  The column concluded:

What’s inherently nonsensical — no, breathtakingly offensive — is for someone interested in those very reforms to be so politically lead-footed as to write an article saying teachers are paid plenty already, and do so while he pulls down $160,000 or more in a public education faculty position himself, and while he is underwritten by a foundation created by wealthy heirs of a fortune gleaned in part from low employee wages and sparse employee benefits.

At the time I hadn’t started this blog, so I didn’t think there was a reasonable forum to address his piece.  But now that the blog is pulling in a daily readership that is not too far off the daily readership of his column in the Northwest Arkansas Morning News (daily circulation 33,582), I’ll respond to the old column and anticipate his new one.

Other than being angry himself and asserting that I had said “something crazy that makes every school teacher in Arkansas throw an eraser across the classroom,” it is not clear what substantive objection Brummett has to what I wrote.  He never disputed the accuracy of the facts I presented on teacher pay, nor could he.  The numbers I presented were taken directly from the U.S. government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 

I suppose one could object to how the BLS calculates hourly pay, based on the argument that it fails to fully capture teacher hours worked outside of school more than it fails to capture hours worked outside of the office by other professionals and white collar workers.  But we addressed that concern in the report by comparing teacher wages to those of other white collar and professional workers on a weekly basis.  Teachers still earn more than other white collar and professional workers.  Teachers do earn less on an annual basis, as we said, but having breaks during the Winter, Spring, and Summer is worth money.  If you don’t think it is, how do you think teachers would feel if we asked them to work all year for the same annual pay they get now?

In addition, I never said that teachers are overpaid, despite Brummett’s suggestion to the contrary by describing my view incorrectly as “teachers get paid plenty already.”  In fact, in the report we explicitly stated: “we offer no opinions on the proper level of pay for public school teachers. We are simply offering facts, almost entirely obtained from an agency of the federal government, that we believe ought to be included in any policy discussion about teacher pay.”  Instead, our point, other than providing descriptive information, was to suggest that teacher pay was roughly comparable on an hourly or weekly basis to that of other white collar and professional workers. 

We did provide an exploratory regression analysis showing no relationship between the level of teacher pay and student outcomes, controlling for observed demographics.  And we did suggest that higher pay might yield better student achievement if it were more explicitly connected to achievement via a merit pay system.  But these arguments do not suggest that teachers are paid too much, only that we should explore paying them differently.

What’s even stranger about Brummett (and others) being offended by my report, is that it is not clear what would be bad about saying that teachers are reasonably well-compensated.  In business schools they routinely brag about how well-paid their graduates are.  Doing so helps them attract more and higher quality applicants.  Why wouldn’t we want to do the same in Education colleges?  I understand that some teachers and their unions may nurse the false grievance of being paid significantly less than other professionals in order to gain leverage in seeking pay increases in the future.  But why should researchers, journalists, and Education college officials suppress accurate and truthful information to assist them in that effort?

Brummett may get angry again tomorrow.  He may throw his column across the room.  He may talk about how much I get paid.  He may offer more political advice, as if researchers should tailor their reporting of the facts to suit political interests.  He may say I’m controlled by the Waltons or Keyser Soze

But he can’t change the facts.  The BLS numbers are what they are.  He can try to distract his readers from that evidence, but he can’t make a substantive argument against what I’ve reported.

UPDATE —Sure enough, Brummett threw his tantrum.  He opens with name-calling: “He’s right-wing and quite the zealous advocate of many education reform notions.”  

Then he assigns to me responsibility for all sorts of things that aren’t actually attributable to me.  For example, he says (dripping with sarcasm): “He gives [teachers] summers off and calculates their hours of actual classroom instruction and concludes that he knows people in other professional fields who aren’t doing as well or significantly better.” 

I didn’t do any of those things.  Teacher contracts with schools give them the summers off.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates their hourly and weekly pay.  The BLS reports that teachers, on average, make more than other white collar and professional workers on both an hourly and weekly basis.  I just repeated what the BLS reported.

He continues falsely attributing to me claims that were not invented by me: “He faulted [Fayetteville schools] for spending federal stimulus dollars not to stimulate the economy, but to pay teachers what he assumes to be twice their usual hourly rate for something they would have been doing anyway, and for much less, without the stimulus.”  (emphasis added)  I didn’t assume that teacher pay was doubled with the stimulus dollars.  The Northwest Arkansas Times reported that fact and I, again, just repeated it.

Finally, he makes the case for this use of stimulus dollars: “This is a new and different program that wouldn’t have been undertaken without the extra Title 1 money from the stimulus, [district officials] say. This will be high-intensity summer session with innovative techniques and individualized instruction and counseling, they say.”

I never disputed that the program might be a beneficial one.  As I wrote in my initial post on this topic: “The Leap Ahead program may well be a good one.”  My objection is to paying teachers twice their normal rate (as reported by the NWAT) and three times what teachers in neighboring Springdale are being paid for the same program.  Nothing in Brummett’s column justifies that.  And he conveniently neglects to mention how Springdale teachers are being paid 1/3 as much for the same thing.

It’s clear that John Brummett uses his column to prosecute his own personal, political agenda.  That’s acceptable for a columnist, but normally they have to be constrained by facts and logic in doing so.  He can’t falsely attribute to me claims that are not my own.  And he can’t switch the issue from doubling (or tripling) teacher pay for a program to the desirability of that program.  At least, his newspaper shouldn’t let him do these things with their paper. 

Who exactly is the zealot here — the person repeating the factual claims of the BLS and the Northwest Arkansas Times or the person omitting crucial facts, falsely attributing claims, and changing the subject?

(Edited for typos.  See a follow-up post here.)


The Heathers Think-Tanks

July 15, 2009

DC-based think tanks run the risk of being obsessed with the latest policy fashion rather than searching for the best long-term solutions.  In the DC bubble, sticking to one’s principles and the evidence is difficult when there are no near-term prospects for advancing policies that are supported by those principles and evidence.  It’s tempting instead to switch one’s policy focus so that it is line with the the current administration and congressional majority.

I was reminded of these hazards of DC think tanks when I received an invitation to the latest Thomas B. Fordham Institute event: “With charter schools ascendant, is there still a future for vouchers?” 

There’s nothing wrong with organizing a panel to consider the relative policy merits of charters and vouchers.  What’s weird is the suggestion that if one policy is currently popular, another might not have a future.  It’s like having a panel that addresses the question:  With Democrats ascendant, is there still a future for the Republican Party? 

Things change.  The current dominance of the Democratic Party won’t last forever.  It may not even last more than a few years.  Similarly, the current popularity of charters relative to vouchers may not last very long.  Rather than assessing the future of policies based on their current popularity, shouldn’t we assess their substantive merits so that we can advocate for the policies that are the most effective?

And if we must obsess on the political prospects of policies rather than their substantive merits, it’s weird to pit the two policies against each other.  Wouldn’t it seem more reasonable to think that as school choice becomes more common, whether with charters or with vouchers, all forms of choice will become more politically palatable?  As I’ve argued before, vouchers have helped make the world safe for charters, so the two policies may work well together. 

Just because the current congressional majority is hostile to vouchers doesn’t mean that the idea has no future or that we have to pit it against other, similar policies that are currently more in fashion.  Dismissing policies because they aren’t on the agenda of the current majority is like the type of argument heard in the 1988 film, Heathers:  “Grow up Heather, bulimia’s so ’87.”


Why Should We Let People Vote?

July 14, 2009

Normally I’m a big fan of Dan Willingham’s ideas but he does have some blind spots.  In particular, Dan seems to miss the point on school choice.  His argument is that for school choice to work, parents have to be rational in making choices:

The logic of school choice seems obvious. If parents selected their children’s schools, they would not choose bad ones, so bad schools would not be able to survive. Schools would have to improve or close, just as a store that offers poor service will lose business to a store that offers better service.

Here’s my problem with that logic: I think it’s highly likely that many parents will choose bad schools.

People often make irrational decisions.

Dan is mistaken in that choice does not require perfect rationality on the part of parents.  All that it required is that parents, on average, will do better at picking schools for their children than the bureaucrats who design schools and compell children to attend those schools.

We all understand that human beings are imperfect and often make mistakes.  Even all of the research on systematic irrationality produces results that are familiar to most people.  The point is that the distant bureaucrat who assigns students to schools controlled by the bureaucrat also suffers from all of these same human foibles. 

Nor can we simply assume that the distant bureaucrat will be focused on academic quality more than parents are.  The distant bureaucrat, even more than parents, has interests that distract from the focus on academic quality.  For example, the bureaucrat might be more concerned about protecting the jobs and incomes of the adults working in schools because those people influence the bureaucrat’s own job status and income.  Just consider whether superintendents are free to do whatever works for kids regardless of the effect on adults working in the schools.

Some might counter that at least the bureaucrats are highly-trained and have access to a lot of information, while parents lack the expertise and information necessary to assess academic quality.  If we really believed this made the bureaucrats superior at making educational choices, we should ask ourselves:  why do we let people vote?

Rather than have individuals make choices about their leaders and policies, shouldn’t we let highly trained experts with superior access to information select our leaders for us?  Regular people may be prone to systematic irrationality when they vote.  In fact, there is a lot of research to support such a conclusion.  For example, people are more likely to vote for more attractive candidates.  Why should people be allowed to vote when: “it’s highly likely that many [voters] will choose bad [candidates]? ”

Of course, the reason why we have democracy despite our awareness of human irrationality is the same reason why we should have schools choice:  on average, people are better at making decisions that affect their own interests than are others.  Even poorly-educated people lacking information are likely to have more knowledge of their interests and how to pursue them than are others making decisions on their behalf.


DC Vouchers: One Step Up, Two Steps Back

July 13, 2009

Durbin

As Matt wrote on Friday, a majority of the DC City Council Members wrote a letter to Arne Duncan expressing their strong support of the DC voucher program, including expansion of the program beyond those currently using scholarships.  The WSJ has yet another great editorial on the topic.  It says, in part:

Earlier this year Illinois Senator Dick Durbin added language to a spending bill that phases out the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program after next year. The program provides 1,700 kids $7,500 per year to use toward tuition at a private school of their parents’ choosing. Mr. Durbin’s amendment says no federal money can be spent on the program beyond 2010 unless Congress reauthorizes it and the D.C. Council approves.

The D.C. Council’s letter shows that support for these vouchers is real at the local level and that the opposition exists mainly at the level of the national Democratic Party. Mr. Durbin has suggested that he included the D.C. Council provision in deference to local control. “The government of Washington, D.C., should decide whether they want it in their school district,” he said in March. Well now we know where D.C. stands. We will now see if the national party stands for putting union power and money above the future of poor children.

Will others who’ve offered DC local control as a reason for opposing the voucher program now come out in support of it?  (I’m looking at you, Kevin Carey.)

Unfortunately, even as vouchers benefited from the support of the DC City Council, Senator Durbin was busy introducing new, onerous regulations on the program in an appropriations bill last week.  In particular, his measures would require participating private schools to take the DC public school test rather than a nationally-normed standardized test, even though they may not have the same curriculum as DCPS.  His measures would also require the Secretary of Education to prohibit voucher students from attending any private school that was not deemed “superior” to DC public schools.  The language is unclear as to whether that means the average DC public schools, the best, the worst, or what. 

You know, this may not be such a bad idea.  Maybe no DC public school students should be forced to attend a public school that is worse than average.  How about if we offer them vouchers?

Wait, I’m sure that was not the intent of the new Durbin measures.  The clear purpose is to strangle the program with reasonable-sounding but truly crippling regulation while the entire program is eventually eliminated. 

Senator Feinstein attempted to remove the Durbin measures in the full committee and Senators Landreau and Byrd joined her in that effort.  But they failed on a tie vote.  It was particularly disappointing to see Senator Mark Pryor vote with Durbin.  Pryor has to be careful not to move further left than his Arkansas constituents as he follows the national leadership or he could finally face a serious challenger for re-election.