Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

July 17, 2009

Normally solid education reporter, Rob Tomsho, has fallen for the Arne Duncan mania by writing an article in today’s WSJ that attributes expansions of charter school laws to Duncan and the $5 billion “race to the top” stimulus money.

As a graph in the print version of the article shows, charters have been expanding steadily for the last several years — all of which was before Arne Duncan and the stimulus money.  The question is whether charters are growing faster than they otherwise would have.  I doubt it.  The progress of charters doesn’t seem any faster to me now than it has been.  After we get all of the numbers in a year or two we can check to confirm my hunch.

I’m afraid that this is just another example of post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, therefore because of this).  Duncan made some speeches and conditioned some fraction of a modest sum on policy changes.  There were some policy changes.  So people are attributing the policy changes to his speeches and tiny financial leverage.


One More Brummett Update

July 16, 2009

Arkansas columnist John Brummett responds to my most recent blog post.  (See also yesterday’s related post here)

 Unfortunately, he continues to change the subject.  The issue is not whether a summer literacy program in Fayetteville is a good program or not.  As I’ve said before, I’m willing to believe that it is.

The issue is whether doubling (or tripling) teacher pay for that program was a good use of additional stimulus dollars.  If it really is a great program, wouldn’t it be better to use those funds to double the number of students who could participate and hire twice as many teachers?  Or how about making the program run twice as long?

Only right-wing zealots would favor halving the number of students or halving the number of days for a beneficial program. 

And one small point — name-calling can be done with adjectives.  Ugly and smelly are adjectives.


Brummett Update

July 16, 2009

As I warned yesterday, Arkansas columnist John Brummett was preparing another attack on me.  Sure enough, Brummett threw his tantrum.  He opens with name-calling: “He’s right-wing and quite the zealous advocate of many education reform notions.”  

Then he assigns to me responsibility for all sorts of things that aren’t actually attributable to me.  For example, he says (dripping with sarcasm): “He gives [teachers] summers off and calculates their hours of actual classroom instruction and concludes that he knows people in other professional fields who aren’t doing as well or significantly better.” 

I didn’t do any of those things.  Teacher contracts with schools give them the summers off.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates their hourly and weekly pay.  The BLS reports that teachers, on average, make more than other white collar and professional workers on both an hourly and weekly basis.  I just repeated what the BLS reported.

He continues falsely attributing to me claims that were not invented by me: “He faulted [Fayetteville schools] for spending federal stimulus dollars not to stimulate the economy, but to pay teachers what he assumes to be twice their usual hourly rate for something they would have been doing anyway, and for much less, without the stimulus.”  (emphasis added) 

I didn’t assume that teacher pay was doubled with the stimulus dollars.  The Northwest Arkansas Times reported that fact and I, again, just repeated it.

Finally, he makes the case for this use of stimulus dollars: “This is a new and different program that wouldn’t have been undertaken without the extra Title 1 money from the stimulus, [district officials] say. This will be high-intensity summer session with innovative techniques and individualized instruction and counseling, they say.”

I never disputed that the program might be a beneficial one.  As I wrote in my initial post on this topic: ”The Leap Ahead program may well be a good one.”  My objection is to paying teachers twice their normal rate (as reported by the NWAT) and three times what teachers in neighboring Springdale are being paid for the same program.  Nothing in Brummett’s column justifies that.  And he conveniently neglects to mention how Springdale teachers are being paid 1/3 as much for the same thing.

It’s clear that John Brummett uses his column to prosecute his own personal, political agenda.  That’s acceptable for a columnist, but normally they have to be constrained by facts and logic in doing so.  He can’t falsely attribute to me claims that are not my own.  And he can’t switch the issue from doubling (or tripling) teacher pay for a program to the desirability of that program.  At least, his newspaper shouldn’t let him do these things with their paper. 

Who exactly is the zealot here — the person repeating the factual claims of the BLS and the Northwest Arkansas Times or the person omitting crucial facts, falsely attributing claims, and changing the subject?

(This material is also contained in an update to yesterday’s post.  See also a more recent post on the same issue here.)


Brummett About to Throw Another Tantrum

July 15, 2009

John Brummett, a columnist in a local paper in Northwest Arkansas called the Morning News, posted on his blog that he is going to write another column attacking me.  At least he gives fair warning.

In 2007 he wrote an angry column in response to a report I co-wrote with Marcus Winters about teacher pay.  The column concluded:

What’s inherently nonsensical — no, breathtakingly offensive — is for someone interested in those very reforms to be so politically lead-footed as to write an article saying teachers are paid plenty already, and do so while he pulls down $160,000 or more in a public education faculty position himself, and while he is underwritten by a foundation created by wealthy heirs of a fortune gleaned in part from low employee wages and sparse employee benefits.

At the time I hadn’t started this blog, so I didn’t think there was a reasonable forum to address his piece.  But now that the blog is pulling in a daily readership that is not too far off the daily readership of his column in the Northwest Arkansas Morning News (daily circulation 33,582), I’ll respond to the old column and anticipate his new one.

Other than being angry himself and asserting that I had said “something crazy that makes every school teacher in Arkansas throw an eraser across the classroom,” it is not clear what substantive objection Brummett has to what I wrote.  He never disputed the accuracy of the facts I presented on teacher pay, nor could he.  The numbers I presented were taken directly from the U.S. government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 

I suppose one could object to how the BLS calculates hourly pay, based on the argument that it fails to fully capture teacher hours worked outside of school more than it fails to capture hours worked outside of the office by other professionals and white collar workers.  But we addressed that concern in the report by comparing teacher wages to those of other white collar and professional workers on a weekly basis.  Teachers still earn more than other white collar and professional workers.  Teachers do earn less on an annual basis, as we said, but having breaks during the Winter, Spring, and Summer is worth money.  If you don’t think it is, how do you think teachers would feel if we asked them to work all year for the same annual pay they get now?

In addition, I never said that teachers are overpaid, despite Brummett’s suggestion to the contrary by describing my view incorrectly as “teachers get paid plenty already.”  In fact, in the report we explicitly stated: “we offer no opinions on the proper level of pay for public school teachers. We are simply offering facts, almost entirely obtained from an agency of the federal government, that we believe ought to be included in any policy discussion about teacher pay.”  Instead, our point, other than providing descriptive information, was to suggest that teacher pay was roughly comparable on an hourly or weekly basis to that of other white collar and professional workers. 

We did provide an exploratory regression analysis showing no relationship between the level of teacher pay and student outcomes, controlling for observed demographics.  And we did suggest that higher pay might yield better student achievement if it were more explicitly connected to achievement via a merit pay system.  But these arguments do not suggest that teachers are paid too much, only that we should explore paying them differently.

What’s even stranger about Brummett (and others) being offended by my report, is that it is not clear what would be bad about saying that teachers are reasonably well-compensated.  In business schools they routinely brag about how well-paid their graduates are.  Doing so helps them attract more and higher quality applicants.  Why wouldn’t we want to do the same in Education colleges?  I understand that some teachers and their unions may nurse the false grievance of being paid significantly less than other professionals in order to gain leverage in seeking pay increases in the future.  But why should researchers, journalists, and Education college officials suppress accurate and truthful information to assist them in that effort?

Brummett may get angry again tomorrow.  He may throw his column across the room.  He may talk about how much I get paid.  He may offer more political advice, as if researchers should tailor their reporting of the facts to suit political interests.  He may say I’m controlled by the Waltons or Keyser Soze

But he can’t change the facts.  The BLS numbers are what they are.  He can try to distract his readers from that evidence, but he can’t make a substantive argument against what I’ve reported.

UPDATE —Sure enough, Brummett threw his tantrum.  He opens with name-calling: “He’s right-wing and quite the zealous advocate of many education reform notions.”  

Then he assigns to me responsibility for all sorts of things that aren’t actually attributable to me.  For example, he says (dripping with sarcasm): “He gives [teachers] summers off and calculates their hours of actual classroom instruction and concludes that he knows people in other professional fields who aren’t doing as well or significantly better.” 

I didn’t do any of those things.  Teacher contracts with schools give them the summers off.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates their hourly and weekly pay.  The BLS reports that teachers, on average, make more than other white collar and professional workers on both an hourly and weekly basis.  I just repeated what the BLS reported.

He continues falsely attributing to me claims that were not invented by me: “He faulted [Fayetteville schools] for spending federal stimulus dollars not to stimulate the economy, but to pay teachers what he assumes to be twice their usual hourly rate for something they would have been doing anyway, and for much less, without the stimulus.”  (emphasis added)  I didn’t assume that teacher pay was doubled with the stimulus dollars.  The Northwest Arkansas Times reported that fact and I, again, just repeated it.

Finally, he makes the case for this use of stimulus dollars: “This is a new and different program that wouldn’t have been undertaken without the extra Title 1 money from the stimulus, [district officials] say. This will be high-intensity summer session with innovative techniques and individualized instruction and counseling, they say.”

I never disputed that the program might be a beneficial one.  As I wrote in my initial post on this topic: “The Leap Ahead program may well be a good one.”  My objection is to paying teachers twice their normal rate (as reported by the NWAT) and three times what teachers in neighboring Springdale are being paid for the same program.  Nothing in Brummett’s column justifies that.  And he conveniently neglects to mention how Springdale teachers are being paid 1/3 as much for the same thing.

It’s clear that John Brummett uses his column to prosecute his own personal, political agenda.  That’s acceptable for a columnist, but normally they have to be constrained by facts and logic in doing so.  He can’t falsely attribute to me claims that are not my own.  And he can’t switch the issue from doubling (or tripling) teacher pay for a program to the desirability of that program.  At least, his newspaper shouldn’t let him do these things with their paper. 

Who exactly is the zealot here — the person repeating the factual claims of the BLS and the Northwest Arkansas Times or the person omitting crucial facts, falsely attributing claims, and changing the subject?

(Edited for typos.  See a follow-up post here.)


The Heathers Think-Tanks

July 15, 2009

DC-based think tanks run the risk of being obsessed with the latest policy fashion rather than searching for the best long-term solutions.  In the DC bubble, sticking to one’s principles and the evidence is difficult when there are no near-term prospects for advancing policies that are supported by those principles and evidence.  It’s tempting instead to switch one’s policy focus so that it is line with the the current administration and congressional majority.

I was reminded of these hazards of DC think tanks when I received an invitation to the latest Thomas B. Fordham Institute event: “With charter schools ascendant, is there still a future for vouchers?” 

There’s nothing wrong with organizing a panel to consider the relative policy merits of charters and vouchers.  What’s weird is the suggestion that if one policy is currently popular, another might not have a future.  It’s like having a panel that addresses the question:  With Democrats ascendant, is there still a future for the Republican Party? 

Things change.  The current dominance of the Democratic Party won’t last forever.  It may not even last more than a few years.  Similarly, the current popularity of charters relative to vouchers may not last very long.  Rather than assessing the future of policies based on their current popularity, shouldn’t we assess their substantive merits so that we can advocate for the policies that are the most effective?

And if we must obsess on the political prospects of policies rather than their substantive merits, it’s weird to pit the two policies against each other.  Wouldn’t it seem more reasonable to think that as school choice becomes more common, whether with charters or with vouchers, all forms of choice will become more politically palatable?  As I’ve argued before, vouchers have helped make the world safe for charters, so the two policies may work well together. 

Just because the current congressional majority is hostile to vouchers doesn’t mean that the idea has no future or that we have to pit it against other, similar policies that are currently more in fashion.  Dismissing policies because they aren’t on the agenda of the current majority is like the type of argument heard in the 1988 film, Heathers:  “Grow up Heather, bulimia’s so ’87.”


Why Should We Let People Vote?

July 14, 2009

Normally I’m a big fan of Dan Willingham’s ideas but he does have some blind spots.  In particular, Dan seems to miss the point on school choice.  His argument is that for school choice to work, parents have to be rational in making choices:

The logic of school choice seems obvious. If parents selected their children’s schools, they would not choose bad ones, so bad schools would not be able to survive. Schools would have to improve or close, just as a store that offers poor service will lose business to a store that offers better service.

Here’s my problem with that logic: I think it’s highly likely that many parents will choose bad schools.

People often make irrational decisions.

Dan is mistaken in that choice does not require perfect rationality on the part of parents.  All that it required is that parents, on average, will do better at picking schools for their children than the bureaucrats who design schools and compell children to attend those schools.

We all understand that human beings are imperfect and often make mistakes.  Even all of the research on systematic irrationality produces results that are familiar to most people.  The point is that the distant bureaucrat who assigns students to schools controlled by the bureaucrat also suffers from all of these same human foibles. 

Nor can we simply assume that the distant bureaucrat will be focused on academic quality more than parents are.  The distant bureaucrat, even more than parents, has interests that distract from the focus on academic quality.  For example, the bureaucrat might be more concerned about protecting the jobs and incomes of the adults working in schools because those people influence the bureaucrat’s own job status and income.  Just consider whether superintendents are free to do whatever works for kids regardless of the effect on adults working in the schools.

Some might counter that at least the bureaucrats are highly-trained and have access to a lot of information, while parents lack the expertise and information necessary to assess academic quality.  If we really believed this made the bureaucrats superior at making educational choices, we should ask ourselves:  why do we let people vote?

Rather than have individuals make choices about their leaders and policies, shouldn’t we let highly trained experts with superior access to information select our leaders for us?  Regular people may be prone to systematic irrationality when they vote.  In fact, there is a lot of research to support such a conclusion.  For example, people are more likely to vote for more attractive candidates.  Why should people be allowed to vote when: “it’s highly likely that many [voters] will choose bad [candidates]? ”

Of course, the reason why we have democracy despite our awareness of human irrationality is the same reason why we should have schools choice:  on average, people are better at making decisions that affect their own interests than are others.  Even poorly-educated people lacking information are likely to have more knowledge of their interests and how to pursue them than are others making decisions on their behalf.


DC Vouchers: One Step Up, Two Steps Back

July 13, 2009

Durbin

As Matt wrote on Friday, a majority of the DC City Council Members wrote a letter to Arne Duncan expressing their strong support of the DC voucher program, including expansion of the program beyond those currently using scholarships.  The WSJ has yet another great editorial on the topic.  It says, in part:

Earlier this year Illinois Senator Dick Durbin added language to a spending bill that phases out the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program after next year. The program provides 1,700 kids $7,500 per year to use toward tuition at a private school of their parents’ choosing. Mr. Durbin’s amendment says no federal money can be spent on the program beyond 2010 unless Congress reauthorizes it and the D.C. Council approves.

The D.C. Council’s letter shows that support for these vouchers is real at the local level and that the opposition exists mainly at the level of the national Democratic Party. Mr. Durbin has suggested that he included the D.C. Council provision in deference to local control. “The government of Washington, D.C., should decide whether they want it in their school district,” he said in March. Well now we know where D.C. stands. We will now see if the national party stands for putting union power and money above the future of poor children.

Will others who’ve offered DC local control as a reason for opposing the voucher program now come out in support of it?  (I’m looking at you, Kevin Carey.)

Unfortunately, even as vouchers benefited from the support of the DC City Council, Senator Durbin was busy introducing new, onerous regulations on the program in an appropriations bill last week.  In particular, his measures would require participating private schools to take the DC public school test rather than a nationally-normed standardized test, even though they may not have the same curriculum as DCPS.  His measures would also require the Secretary of Education to prohibit voucher students from attending any private school that was not deemed “superior” to DC public schools.  The language is unclear as to whether that means the average DC public schools, the best, the worst, or what. 

You know, this may not be such a bad idea.  Maybe no DC public school students should be forced to attend a public school that is worse than average.  How about if we offer them vouchers?

Wait, I’m sure that was not the intent of the new Durbin measures.  The clear purpose is to strangle the program with reasonable-sounding but truly crippling regulation while the entire program is eventually eliminated. 

Senator Feinstein attempted to remove the Durbin measures in the full committee and Senators Landreau and Byrd joined her in that effort.  But they failed on a tie vote.  It was particularly disappointing to see Senator Mark Pryor vote with Durbin.  Pryor has to be careful not to move further left than his Arkansas constituents as he follows the national leadership or he could finally face a serious challenger for re-election.


Your Stimulus Money at Work

July 12, 2009

If you want to get a feeling for how education stimulus dollars are being used, check out this story from the Northwest Arkansas Times.  We learn that the Fayetteville School District is using stimulus dollars to double the regular pay of teachers working in a summer literacy program. 

That’s right.  The money is not being used to save teacher jobs that would have otherwise been cut.  The money isn’t being used to offer a new program that otherwise wouldn’t have been offered.  The money is simply being used to pay teachers more for the same thing that they would have been doing anyway.  The only thing that is “racing to the top” about this use of funds is teacher pay.  As the NWAT reports:

Fayetteville School District is using part of its federal stimulus funding to pay teachers in the Leap Ahead summer literacy program at Owl Creek School about double their regular pay.

Teachers in this program that targets at-risk students who have completed kindergarten through second grades will bank $8,000 for 12 days of classroom instruction and three days of preparation at the school.

That’s about $533 per day for working from 8:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. This does not include any extra time that school officials say teachers will be required to develop lesson plans and meet with parents.

Springdale Public Schools pays its summer school teachers $25 per hour, per district policy, said Rick Schaefer, the district’s public information officer.

For those of you without a calculator, that works out to paying Fayetteville teachers $76 per hour of scheduled work (excluding benefits) to do something that teachers in neighboring Springdale are doing for $25 per hour.  And it is apparently double what the same Fayetteville teachers are normally paid.

The Leap Ahead program may well be a good one.  But it isn’t clear how simply paying the same people more to do the same thing that would have been done in the absence of stimulus money helps anyone other than the people getting paid more. 

This is essentially a transfer of wealth from taxpayers (who on average earn less) to this group of teachers (who on average earn more).  And we wonder why the stimulus isn’t stimulating the economy.


Youth Fiction Without the Mopey Whining

July 10, 2009

I’ve become quite the connoisseur of adolescent fiction over the last several years.  One of our sons has trouble with reading comprehension, so he reads aloud with my wife or me so that we can discuss the book and make sure he is following the story.  We’ve read a whole lot of books that fall into the predictable pattern of youth fiction — they tend to be mopey, whiny stories about the death or injury of a loved one, family dysfunction, or psychological trauma.  Even if they are well-written, which some are, the repetitive, dreary themes are enough to make me want to jump off a Bridge to Teribithia. 

I’m not the only one to notice this.  Joanne Jacobs had an excellent post a while back about Anita Silvey’s artile in the School Library Journal about how depressing award-winning youth fiction tends to be:

Of the 25 winners and runners-up chosen from 2000 to 2005 [for the prestigious Newbery Medal], four of the books deal with death, six with the absence of one or both parents and four with such mental challenges as autism. Most of the rest deal with tough social issues.

Adults tend to prefer this type of literature much more than kids do.  This is especially true for boys, who’ve discovered that their adventure stories involving pirates have been replaced by touching family dramas.  It’s true that adolescents may desire books with a fair amount of whining and moping because it appeals to their over-wrought emotional tendencies, but I think most of the dreariness of youth fiction is driven by the depressing preferences of the adults who assign the awards, purchase the books for libraries, and write the books in the first place.  It’s as if they are trying to train future generations of therapy-seeking, mopey book-worms.

All of this matters because the award-winning books are the ones the school libraries are more likely to buy and teachers and parents are more likely to push kids to read.  If we want to get kids to read, especially boys, we have to offer them something less morose.  The solution is not to push the likes of Captain Underpants, Harry Potter, or Twilight.  Yes, they are less depressing, but they are also remarkably poorly written, weak excuses for literature.  Nor is the solution to push only classic works.  Kids also need contemporary works with modern themes and language.

I’m happy to report that there are still a number of quality works of youth fiction being produced.  They may not win the top awards, but you and your kids can find them and enjoy reading without having to take anti-depressants.  Most recently, we finished reading two really good books:  Peak, by Roland Smith, and Among the Hidden, by Margaret Peterson Haddix

They may not be great art, but they are decent youth fiction.  There’s enough mopey whining to appeal to those feelings among adolescents, but there’s also action, politics, self-sacrifice, and triumph.  That is, they’re good stories.

In Peakthe protagonist is a 14 year-old child of famous mountain-climbers who gets into trouble for climbing sky-scrappers.  He’s rescued from juvenile detention by being sent-abroad with his absentee dad who plans to get the 14 year-old to be the youngest person to summit Everest.  But the plan is complicated by an intrusive reporter, Tibetan politics, and oppressive Chinese army officials — not to mention the harsh conditions of climbing the world’s highest peak.  Along with the adventurous story of mountain-climbing, the book contains a fair dose of Tibetan-Chinese politics, and a strained father-son relationship.

Among the Hiddenis the first of a 7 book series about a future dystopia in which the government has forbidden anyone from having more than two children to prevent famine and other overuse of resources.  The protagonist is a third-child who was secretly born and raised on a remote farm.  When housing subdivisions are built near the farm, he is confined to hiding in the attic of his house so that the Population Police don’t discover him.  His family strains under excessive taxation, intrusive regulation, and the ever-present fear of being caught with a third child.  For a second you may forget that this is a future dystopia.  Eventually our hero discovers that he may not be the only “shadow child” out there and that it may be possible to do something to change the government’s oppressive policies.

These are books you can actually enjoy!


UK Tories Propose Vouchers for Developing Countries

July 6, 2009

This is great news forwarded from Pauline Dixon, who with James Tooley, have done amazing work on the breadth and quality of private schooling in developing countries.  Here is part of the article in the Guardian:

Aid vouchers will be given to millions of people in the poorest parts of the world so they can shop around for the best schools and services, under Tory plans to inject free-market thinking into development policy.

A Conservative government would also spend part of the £9.1bn overseas aid budget on funding for private schools across the developing world, which it believes would achieve better results than state schools and drive up standards overall. The controversial plans are in a draft Tory policy document leaked to the Observer before publication this week of the government’s white paper on development.

Andrew Mitchell, the shadow international development secretary, confirmed last night that the Tories were “investigating” using aid vouchers “to empower people in developing countries”. He also said his party had no objection to supporting the growth of the private education and health sectors in the developing world.

“Governments have a responsibility to guarantee access to health and education for everyone, particularly the poorest,” Mitchell said. “We stand ready to work with public, private and not-for-profit sectors to help make that happen. I don’t have any ideological hang-ups about whether it’s private provision or public provision: I’m interested in what works.”

In his bid to promote compassionate Conservatism, David Cameron pledges to match Labour’s plans to increase development spending to 0.7% of GDP by 2013. The budget in 2010-11 will be £9.1bn. But the policy has not proved universally popular in the party, particularly on the right, where many believe too much aid money is wasted. A survey of Tory candidates found only 4% thought international development should be the policy most protected from cuts.

Cameron’s critics believe he is promoting Thatcherite policies for aid to appease the right and reassure them the money will be well spent. The draft document suggests planning for a voucher scheme is well advanced.

“The vouchers would be redeemable for development services of any kind with an aid agency or supplier of their choice,” it states. The paper also says that a Conservative government would “embrace the potential of the private sector, not treat it with suspicion” when administering the aid budget.

As a result it makes clear the Tories would support private education in countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, India and China, where it claims it has delivered better results than state-run schools “even adjusting for children’s backgrounds”.

The paper states: “We will stand ready to work with the public, not-for-profit and private sectors. We will consider funding insurance schemes, bursaries or targeted vouchers for the poorest children to attend a school of their choice.”