Only 40% of UFT Voters Are Actual Teachers

April 14, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Over on NRO, Rick Hess points out that only 40% of the voters in last week’s UFT elections were actual teachers.

Do you think this sort of thing might have something to do with the problem of runaway, unfunded teacher pensions? Looks like at least one union is representing retirees at least as much as teachers.

This also sheds some light on why the unions favor policies that destroy the working environment for public school teachers. Only 40% of their voters are affected by the destruction of the teacher working environment.

And this is after the implementation of a new rule that counts each vote by a retiree as only 0.72 of a vote. If the retirees’ votes hadn’t been diluted, the teachers would only be 34% of the electorate and the retirees 46%.

In case you’re wondering, the other 22% of the UFT vote is composed of what the union calls “functional teachers,” i.e. almost entirely non-teachers (librarians, nurses, counsellors, etc.)


Flypaper Fail

April 13, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Mike Petrilli argues that tenure reform is better than choice.

Trouble is, he openly admits that the only reason DC got tenure reform is because of the proliferation of charter schools: “Score one for competitive effects!” says Mike.

He also cites tenure reform in Florida and Rhode Island. Both of which have – guess what? – school choice programs.

Mike asks, why bother with choice? Why not go directly for tenure reform?

Uh, maybe because the only possible way to create sufficient pressure for something as “radioactive” (Mike’s word) as tenure reform is the “competitive effects” created by choice? As your own examples show?

Sorry, Mike, your argument has failed.


The States Are Concealing Teacher Pension Costs of ONE TRILLION DOLLARS!

April 13, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

A new study by Josh Barro and Stuart Buck, co-sponsored by the Foundation for Educational Choice and the Manhattan Institute, finds that states have total teacher pension liabilities of ONE TRILLION DOLLARS!

These days that doesn’t sound like much, does it? We’re getting to the point where raising an alarm about ONE TRILLION DOLLARS is a little like holding the world to ransom for a measly million.

But check out some other points from the study:

  • These teacher pension liabilities are systematically concealed from the public. The states claim they’re on the hook for “only” $332 billion.
  • Not surprisingly, these concealed liabilities aren’t properly funded. Every pension fund is in shortfall – California alone by $100 billion.
  • The funding shortfalls aren’t trivial. The five worst states (by percentage) are less than 40 percent funded. Only five plans in the whole country are 75 percent funded.

The logic is simple: extravegant teacher pension promises cost nothing to make, and the people who make the promises will mostly have moved on to other things by the time the gigantic costs come due. The due date can be held off by dishonest accounting – you don’t need to put a trillion dollars into the pension fund if you just pretend you don’t owe a trillion dollars. When the chickens come home to roost, those in power can shrug their shoulders and blame the irresponsibility of previous administrations. And where will the guilty parties be by then?

It’s the perfect crime.


NJEA Local Prays for Christie’s Death

April 9, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

The Bergen County Education Association, a local chapter of the NJEA, recently circulated a memo praying for the death of Gov. Chris Christie:

Dear Lord this year you have taken away my favorite actor, Patrick Swayze, my favorite actress, Farrah Fawcett, my favorite singer, Michael Jackson, and my favorite salesman, Billy Mays. I just wanted to let you know that Chris Christie is my favorite governor.

But remember, it’s those horrible tea partiers who are vitriolic, hateful, unstable and potentially violent!

I’m not sure which is more embarrassing for the NJEA, the fact that their local is circulating memos praying for the governor’s death, or the fact that their local is headed by a person whose favorite actor is Patrick Swayze, favorite acress is Farrah Fawcett, and favorite singer is Michael Jackson.

HT Jim Geraghty


Vouchers and the Rising Tide

April 7, 2010

“A rising tide lifts all boats.”

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

I haven’t had a chance to read the details yet, but from the executive summary of the new results released today by the School Choice Demonstration Project, it looks like vouchers have done a good job of improving education for all students in the city of Milwaukee.

What? That’s not the way you heard it?

Of course not. Because the new result, taken in isolation from other information, simply says that after two years, the voucher students are making learning improvements about the same as public school students. The scores for the voucher students are higher, but the difference is not statistically certain.

However, let’s plug that into the larger universe of information. We know – from the very same research project – that vouchers are improving education in Milwaukee public schools. The positive incentives of competition and the improved matching of student needs to school strengths are causing public schools to deliver a better education.

So if the voucher students and the public school students are doing about the same, and vouchers are improving results for public school students, it follows that vouchers are improving results for everybody.

That, of course, is the consistent finding of a large body of research. The overwhelming research consensus is that vouchers improve public schools.

Also, let’s not forget that in several previous longitudinal studies, the results from the first one or two years were similar – the voucher students ahead, but the difference not statistically certain – and in those cases, in later years the difference always became statistically certain. It just took the accumulation of more data to reach the high bar of statistical certainty.

So here’s a toast to the great news that vouchers in Milwaukee are making everybody better off!


Yes, It Was Kabuki

March 31, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Sometimes first impressions turn out to be right. Back when the Obama administration started making noises about using the big new geyser of fedreal funds to reward innovative states – before anyone was even talking about “Race to the Top” – I saw right through the whole sham. Kabuki, I called it.

Then I began to have doubts. Bloomberg and Klein were fighting hard for charters, using RttT as leverage. Schwarzenegger got legislation in California repealing their charter cap. It began to look like RttT, while it would have some negative impacts, would also have some positive impacts. That would mean, whatever it was, it wasn’t kabuki.

I recant! I repent!

Delaware and Tennessee have some of the nation’s weaker charter laws. Whatever benefit there might have been for the charter movement in the first round of RttT came from tricking people into thinking the administration was serious about supporting charters. I admit I was fooled myself. But now that the dime has dropped, the charter cause has been seriously damaged in the long term. No state will stick its neck out for charters now that they know the administration views charters as less important than union support. Even the symbolic victory of having a president who at least puts on a show of embracing charter schools, choice and competition, etc. won’t survive this kind of collision with reality.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call kabuki.

So, Jay . . . how long do I need to wear sackcloth?


Card Check Comes to Ed Reform

March 30, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

That 1980s “union label” video sure is a classic, Jay. But in the wake of the RTTT results, education reformers feel more like this:

They couldn’t get card check passed through Congress, so they hauled it over to the DOE. Now we can watch the magic!


The Mirage

March 24, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

It’s fitting that Matt and Jay are posting this morning about their experiences in Vegas, because I was already planning to post about a really big Mirage.

Over the weekend, a lot of conservatives in the blogosphere were consoling themselves with the thought that “now they own the system.”

Jim Geraghty: Direct All Future Health-Care Complaints to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

K-Lo: Every hiccup. Every complaint. Every long line. All yours.

I’d love to believe this line, but it’s obviously not true. Dozens of other countries have gone down this road, to their manifest ruin. Did any of them produce this kind of backlash against the party that led the socialization process?

They want to own the system. That’s the whole point. I don’t just mean that they want the wealth and power that comes with actually owning it, although that’s a nontrivial factor. (Just look at how they’re already using the nationalization of student loans to coercively redistribute wealth from grads who choose private-sector jobs to grads who choose public-sector jobs.) They also – even more importantly – want to own it in perception, want to be seen as owning it.

Why? Because in a socialized system, the presumption is that the party that owns the system wants to make it (and hence your health care) bigger and better, while the party that doesn’t own the system wants to redirect resoucres away from it (and hence hurt your health care).

They own the system, therefore they own the issue. If everybody gets their health care from “the system,” then when people want better health care, they’ll always vote for the party that owns “the system.” And, of course, socialized medicine does a lot of damage to health care, and thus generates a lot of desire for better health care. It’s a self-reinforcing dynamic.

Game over, man! Game over!

We do have a limited window in which the law could be repealed before “the system” takes over. But the Journal is right to sound a hard note of caution about the realistic prospects for that. You can’t get repeal until you get a new president. And Obama has three full years to live down the damage he took in this fight. If he gets smart, which it’s very likely he will, he’ll take his licks in 2010 and come roaring back (or at least drag himself over the finish line) in 2012.

Plus, will the GOP commit to repeal? Would they even be smart to commit to repeal given the unlikelihood they’ll get it?


Who’s Fickle?

March 19, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

The new Gadfly opens with Mike Petrilli’s article “Fickle on Federalism.” At the head of the article he juxtaposes these two quotes:

“[This plan] will fundamentally change the federal role in education. We will move from being a compliance monitor to being an engine for innovation.”

–Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, March 17, 2010, before the House Education and Labor Committee

 

“In coming weeks and months…we will be announcing a number of compliance reviews to ensure that all students have equal access to educational opportunities.”

–Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, March 8, 2010, at the Edmund Pettis Bridge in Selma, Alabama

Good one!

But I’ve got a better one. Scroll down to the next article in the Gadfly and you’ll find Checker’s NRO piece, in which he twists himself into even tighter pretzel knots on the new national standards train wreck. Here’s what he was writing about that on Feb. 23:

This is enormously risky and, frankly, hubristic, since nobody yet has any idea whether these standards will be solid, whether the tests supposed to be aligned with them will be up to the challenge, or whether the “passing scores” on those tests will be high or low, much less how this entire apparatus will be sustained over the long haul.

But in the March 10 New York Times, he was singing a different tune:

I’d say this is one of the most important events of the last several years in American education… Now we have the possibility that, for the first time, states could come together around new standards and high school graduation requirements that are ambitious and coherent. This is a big deal.

Now, in the new Gadfly, he’s careful to weasel around without actually taking a clear position. He opens by saying “conservatives should take seriously the potential” of the standards. “Take seriously the potential”? What does that even mean? Should we support or oppose?

And at the end he concludes that the standards are “light years better than we had any right to expect.” So’s the health care monstrosity currently winding its tortuous way through the House; compared to what I thought they’d get, I’m shocked at how little they’ve ended up with. But that doesn’t mean passing it wouldn’t be a huge disaster; it just means it wouldn’t be as huge a disaster as I had feared (or, more likely, that the huge disaster will be longer in coming to fruition).

In between, he lists five surprisingly weak reasons to support the standards – and then four even weaker warnings about “risks” involved in the enterprise. Check out this howler:

Third, they emerged not from the federal government but from a voluntary coming together of (most) states, and the states’ decision whether or not to adopt them will remain voluntary. Each state will determine whether the new standards represent an improvement over what it’s now using.

Riiiiiiiiiight.

Or take the example of hijacking. The Dr. Jekyll Checker from February sounded warnings that the standards, once imposed, could subsequently be hijacked by the Dark Side. The Mr. Hyde Checker in the Times seems to have forgotten all about this. Here’s the new, pretzel Checker in the Gadfly:

Third, the long-term governance of these standards–and of the assessments to follow–is unknown. Something more durable will need to be found or created than the consortium of states that produced the present draft. (Fordham is developing ideas and options for this, and others will surely weigh in as well.)

So yes, hijacking is a danger. But don’t worry, Checker’s clarion call for somebody to do some sort of something that will do something about this problem will no doubt be heeded and acted upon with dispatch!

What really galled me was the closing line:

Remember, it’s liberals who believe that people should be held to different standards.

Right. Because if Johnny learns long division in fourth grade and Suzy learns it in third grade, that’s the moral equivalent of a racial quota.

Let’s be clear. Conservatives believe that everybody should play by the same rules. That’s different from saying everybody should be forced to conform to the same model of life. It’s liberals who believe that – as Jonah Goldberg has shown so clearly in Liberal Fascism.

Personally, I agree with Checker that too many children have not had access to a solid academic education. The solution to that is not to impose the One Right Way on every child, but to smash the oppressive power structure that has stood in the schoolhouse door for a hundred and fifty years, preventing those children from getting the education they need. Checker wants to make the oppressor even bigger and more powerful, in the hope that he can bend it to his will. Good luck.


The Dam Continues to Crack

March 15, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Over the weekend, Pajamas Media carried my column on the Rhode Island teacher firing flap:

That leads us to the second question: why does Obama think he can advance himself by gratuitously hacking off the teachers’ unions? Answer: because the unions are on the way down, and he wants to ingratiate himself with the people who are taking them down.

On the left, the dam continues to crack. How long before it breaks?

And what happens when it does?

In the long term, I’m as optimistic as I ever have been about the prospects for real reform — especially for vouchers, the only reform that will make any of the other reforms sustainable. In the Cold War, the Russians had more men, more missiles, more tanks, and (let’s be honest) more guts. The only things we had that they didn’t were the entrepreneurial spirit and a just cause. And guess what? It turns out that in the long run, that’s what you really need.