
(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)
Well just to keep anyone from saying “oh yeah- but he didn’t show us 4th grade math!”
My reaction:


and

[Guest Post by Jason Bedrick]
Enrollment in Wisconsin’s voucher program doubled for the second year in a row and members of the public education establishment are not happy.
“Private school vouchers aren’t making our kids smarter — but they are spiking our property taxes and siphoning money away from our kids’ public schools,” Mary Young, president of Support Our Schools Wauwatosa, said in a statement.
If the vouchers aren’t making kids smarter, then neither are the district schools. A longitudinal study found that they score about the same on test scores, with advantages for the voucher students in some years. The major difference is that the voucher students graduate at a higher rate and cost about 40 percent less per pupil — important facts that somehow didn’t make it into the Journal-Sentinel‘s coverage.
The Legislative Fiscal Bureau estimated this year that the [school voucher] expansion could shift $600 million to $800 million from public schools over the next decade.
State Schools Superintendent Tony Evers said at the time that the plan would hurt public school budgets and students.
“You lose two or three kids, it doesn’t mean you can lay off five teachers,” Evers said. “It will have major negative impacts.”
First, it must be the case that Evers was misquoted. There’s no way he actually believes that a school losing “two or three kids” will suffer “major negative impacts.” If two or three kids moved out or town or started homeschooling and the resulting fiscal impact was anything approaching “major,” the town should fire the principal and impeach the school board for gross incompetence.

But wait, what about that “$600 to $800 million” that will shift “from public schools over the next decade”? Isn’t that a lot of money?
Well yes… and no. Here the Journal-Sentinel reporter yet again fails to provide the crucial context: how much the state and local governments currently spend on education. According to the latest figures from the National Center for Education Statistics, the Wisconsin public school system cost more than $10.6 billion per year (about half of which is state spending). Even assuming no growth in spending, that’s more than $106 billion over the next decade. In other words, the voucher program expansion is projected to result in a reduction of about 0.56 percent to 0.75 percent of public spending on district schools. (The precise amount may vary slightly depending on the data source and growth assumptions, but we’re still talking about a fraction of one percent.)
Moreover, this calculation does not factor in the reduction in costs associated with students who leave the system. Plus, as Marty Lueken recently detailed at the Friedman Foundation blog, under the current school funding formula, “school districts that lose students to the parental choice program actually end up with more revenue for each student who remains in their schools.”
In summary, the projected fiscal impact of the voucher expansion on district schools is minuscule overall and district schools may even see an increase in their per-student funding. Of course, that’s not the impression that a context-free mention of “$600 to $800 million” gives, which is why providing that context is so essential. Readers who don’t crunch the numbers themselves aren’t just uninformed, they’re misinformed. Failure to provide that context is journalistic malpractice.

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)
So we may be able to rule out the weird sample theory since NAEP has different random student samples for each test. On 8th grade math AZ charter school students scored in a statistical dead heat with Massachusetts. While there certainly is a self-selection factor in terms of parents applying for charter schools, I can tell you that every way I found to break the above numbers down shows a charter school advantage- charters scored better among low-income kids, and among middle/high income kids. They scored higher among Anglo kids and among Hispanic kids. Because charter school students only make up 17% of the student body, the NAEP data can only go so far in slicing and dicing data.
The point isn’t that self-selection had nothing to do with these results-they obviously did although we have a growing mountain of random assignment data from around the country that shows admission lottery winners outperform lottery losers. The most important points- first tens of thousands of Arizona parents sit on the outside looking in at charter school spots. Second- both district and charter results have improved in Arizona through a very difficult period of funding cuts for both sectors.
Congratulations to all of Arizona’s long suffering educators and leaders. We’re not there yet, but we are on our way.

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)
Previously I had shown that if you compare general education low-income students, that Arizona charter schools made very large academic gains on the 2015 NAEP. This morning I woke up and thought: what if we compared Arizona charter school students to other statewide averages as a whole? Arizona has the highest percentage of students attending charter schools of any state. There are more students attending Arizona charter schools than Wyoming public schools after all, so why not?
I ran the numbers for 8th grade reading. Here are the results:
Well how about that? Now before you start babbling conspiracy theories about student demographics let me remind you of a few things. First of all, those states up at the top are all very pale complected, host Ivy League universities and have average family incomes in the six figures. Arizona meanwhile is a relatively poor state with a plurality of Hispanic students and a law which requires random assignment lotteries to charter schools. I don’t have statistics for the percentage of Hispanic students in Arizona charter schools but having visited many of them I can assure you that it will beat the living daylights out of the same figure for New Hampshire. In other words if you want to wildly speculate about student demographics you can lick the strings of Angus’ electric guitar while he has it plugged in to his portable nuclear generator necessary to burst your ear drums and make you love it.
Did I forget to mention that Massachusetts probably spends more than twice the amount per pupil when compared to Arizona charter schools? No? Ok well that too.
Well, maybe the 8th grade reading sample just happened to over-sample the highest performing charters in 2015. Could be-so let’s check the 4th grade reading numbers:
So it’s not much of a mystery to see why tens of thousands of Arizona parents sit unhappily on charter school waiting lists- the gap in scores between AZ charter schools and the AZ average is considerable. This is not to say that every Arizona charter school is fantastic (they aren’t) or that every AZ district school is low performing (this is not the case). Moreover Arizona district schools have been improving while dealing while a great deal of adversity since 2007 and in the end this is absolutely crucial. Key to that progress however is a growing little New England scoring school system out here in our delightful patch of cactus.
Arizona Governor Doug Ducey campaigned on funding the wait list- getting more resources out to district and charter schools with long wait lists to get more of them in the door and off the list. I hope the above charts indicate just what a profoundly wonderful idea that would be, so…


(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)
Arizona did well in the 2015 NAEP- up in three of the four tests and notched our first ever above the national average score in any of the four exams. This is all good news, and the gains look more impressive if you compare them to when the economy hummed and spending per pupil was relatively high (2007) to when not so much yet (2015). Sweet are the uses of adversity if surely very difficult for educators and administrators.
I ran numbers for charter vs. non-charter and tried to get closer to apples to apples by examining the scores of general ed students who qualify for a free or reduced lunch. If your story is that the charter schools have a nefarious plot to siphon off all the rich kids from North Scottsdale (good luck btw) these are not those kids.
Some of the really big gains on the charter side here may be explained by an unusual bad showing for charter schools in 2013-and that could relate to the vagaries of NAEP sampling. Nevertheless they are way up from the good ole days of property bubble prosperity as well as from 2013 among both districts and charters- and the most important gains are the blue ones since they still educate 83% of the kids.
So that’s what you get for you “wild west” charter sector that routinely derided by overly cautious types who have no experience with coping with rapid enrollment growth- rocking academic gains for disadvantaged kids! Arizona still has far to go but…

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)
Let the fun begin! National aggregate results for all students are flat in 4R, down in the other four subjects. The declines are very small- one point on 4th grade math, two points on 8th grade math, down two points on 8th grade reading. On 500 point scale tests none the national results are not worth getting overly excited about- but why let that stop anyone!
The interesting stuff is also found by digging around.
It looks like Maryland must have finally put a stop their reign of terror against the NAEP inclusion standards for kids with disabilities and ELL because their scores declined substantially.

Good for them for making the move. DC looks to have overtaken a statewide average (New Mexico) after rocking the 4th grade reading NAEP with big gains again (see below). Louisiana, Mississippi and the Carolinas also demonstrated big gains on 4th grade reading.
I will take a close look at DC, but here is a preview looking only at general ed kids who are eligible for a free or reduced price lunch:
26/21 point gains in 12 years among FRL eligible kids is very impressive. I’ll track the numbers by some alternative variables later since the definition of FRL has evolved over time. The last time I did this (by tracking kids by parental education instead of FRL status for instance) it confirmed that disadvantaged kids were making big gains in DC- so I will offer a somewhat premature congratulations.
More later…

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)
Health care has already been putting a squeeze on other forms of state spending. K-12 won’t be spared indefinitely. Handy pie charts from the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts:

If you want to see why Texas leaders deregulated tuition back in 2003, keep an eye on the green “All Other” slice shrinking from 41.1% of the budget to a projected mere 27.7% in 2023. Ooops- you can’t charge tuition to prisoners and well criminal justice has to fit into that green slice along with transportation, universities and a whole bunch of other stuff. Texas universities set a good example for the rest of the country more than a decade ago by planning for a post-state funding world.
Now look at the blue K-12 slice- 44.9% of the budget in 2001 moves to a projected 37.4% in 2023. That doesn’t look all that bad until you consider what will be happening in terms of student and elderly population trends:
More specifically:
So that shrinking % of the budget for K-12 will need to cover a K-12 system that has almost a million more students in 2025 than in 2015. That’s what happens when you add a 100,000 or so new students in your K-12 system per year. Oh, and by the way, the Census Bureau projects a doubling of the elderly population between 2010 and 2030 to boot.
So what does Texas have to fear from parental choice again?
The toy company Lego has refused to fill a bulk order from Chinese artist, Ai Weiwei, claiming that it “cannot approve the use of Legos for political works.” You see, the artist has been an outspoken critic of the Chinese government and has produced works using Legos depicting fellow dissidents. Meanwhile, Lego has a financial interest in a company that plans to open LegoLand, a theme park in Shanghai. Political criticism wouldn’t be good for business.
So, Legos, which had never previously refused to fill a bulk order, has now decided to take a firm stand against being involved in politics, which itself feels very political. As Ai Weiwei has said, “Everything is art. Everything is politics.”
It’s no small irony that the villain in The Lego Movie was called Lord Business. The internet is buzzing with offers to donate Legos so that the art works can still be made. Looks like Lord Business may be defeated again.

There are many ways a nominee for The Al could improve the human condition. Some, like Matt’s recent nominee Malcolm McLean, are inventors of products or methods that make us better off by increasing economic prosperity. Others, like Greg’s winning nominee Wim Nottroth, improve the human condition by fighting for greater liberty. My nominee for this year’s Al didn’t do either of these things. Gary Gygax, the inventor of Dungeons & Dragons (D&D), made a significant contribution to improving the human condition by giving us license to continue “playing pretend” into our adolescence and adulthood.
How does it improve the human condition for teenagers and adults to continue playing pretend? Well, mostly because it’s fun. Children love playing pretend, but traditionally we’ve been socialized to abandon these childish things as we assume adult responsibilities. That might make sense when every waking moment had to be devoted to making a living, but society has grown remarkably wealthy. That wealth has created significant opportunities for leisure, most of which people now consume by passively sitting and watching movies and TV. D&D involves story-telling, just like movies and TV, but it is more active and social. It is collective story-telling, with each participant adding details and shaping the plot.
I won’t bother to defend the benefits of story-telling other than to note that it is as old as human beings and universal in its appeal. We obviously need to do it. By inventing a new way for people to tell stories and giving us a mechanism for continuing that activity beyond childhood, Gary Gygax made a significant contribution to improving the human condition.
Let’s be clear. D&D really is just playing pretend, not a formal game — at least if you are doing it right. Even Gary Gygax, who made his living mostly by selling rulebooks for D&D, understood that the rules were really unnecessary when he conceded: “The secret we should never let the gamemasters know is that they don’t need any rules.” Gygax is also reported to have said, “A DM only rolls the dice because of the noise they make.” To play D&D you don’t need to follow rules and it doesn’t really matter what numbers the dice roll. All you need is a group of people willing to tell a story together.
I haven’t played D&D in many years, but I remember it fondly. In fact, I first played D&D in 1979 — the same year that the first Dungeon Master’s Guide was published. The “game” for which I was DM was loosely based on David Bowie’s Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars. The players had to fight the spiders and ultimately defeat Ziggy by “crush[ing] his sweet hands.” Yep, we were incredibly geeky… but pretty cool geeks. And we used to make fun of Gary Gygax at the time for what we thought were his stupid books and rules. We didn’t understand that he just meant them as suggestions to get us started. At that they succeeded. So, thank you Gary Gygax for getting geeks everywhere to keep on playing pretend and telling stories.