Arkansas Senate Ads

April 15, 2010

The TV airwaves in Arkansas are filled with third-party ads supporting Bill Halter against Blanche Lincoln.  Here’s one:

And here is a basic translation of what the ad says:

I’d like to be able to say that Senator Lincoln’s ads in response are any different, but they aren’t.  And the Republicans aren’t yet running many ads, but their rhetoric is basically the same.  Arkansas politicians seem determined to fulfill the worst stereotypes that people may have about the state.


Tax-Hike-Mike Learns the Meaning of Chutzpah

April 13, 2010

There’s an old joke that illustrates what chutzpah means.  It goes like this… Chutzpah is when a man convicted of killing his parents pleads for mercy because he is an orphan.

This joke came to mind this morning when I read that Janet Huckabee, the wife of former governor, failed presidential candidate, and Fox TV personality, Mike Huckabee, has bought a home and established legal residence in Florida.  The couple will still maintain their house in Arkansas, but establishing legal residency in Florida will help the couple avoid Arkansas’ high personal income and sales taxes. 

Florida has no personal income tax, while Arkansas’ income tax quickly rises to a top marginal rate of 7%.  And state and local sales taxes hover around 10% in Arkansas, compared to 6% in Florida. 

It would be perfectly appropriate and normal for someone to change residences so as to minimize taxes if Huckabee hadn’t been personally responsible for helping raise those taxes, which he and his wife are now seeking to avoid.


The Democrats’ War on Education Science

March 17, 2010

“I keep my brain in this pickle jar for safe-keeping.”

It was perfectly predictable but still sad to watch.  The U.S. Senate voted 55-42 yesterday against continuing the DC voucher program.  Among Republicans only Olympia Snowe voted against the program.  Among Democrats (or Independents), Feinstein, Lieberman, Nelson, and Warner voted for the program.

Normally we hear that Republicans are engaging in a war on science — opposing stem cell research, questioning global warming claims, etc…  But judging from the arguments that opponents made in yesterday’s debate, Democrats are also engaged in a war on science, at least a war on education science.  They couldn’t be bothered to fully or accurately reference the U.S. Department of Education’s evaluation of the program that found significant benefits for voucher recipients after 3 years.

Instead, the quality of the opponents’ scientific reasoning was exemplified by Sen. Byron Dorgan of South Dakota.  As you can see in this link to CSPAN coverage (starting around minute 21), he argues that there is no need for vouchers because our public school system is doing a great job.  And we know this because graduates of American public schools were the people who put a man on the moon.  I’m not sure what public school Wernher von Braun attended.

Dorgan goes on to reference the U.S. Department of Ed evaluation, but he leaves out the positive main finding and focuses only on a sub-group analysis of students who came from very low performing public schools.  The point estimate for that sub-group analysis is positive but the sample is small and so the effect is not statistically significant.

I know I’m using big words that may be a little hard for the likes of Sen. Dorgan to grasp, but the blatant disregard for scientific evaluations of government programs demonstrated by Dorgan, Durbin and the rest of the program opponents shows that they are the ones engaging in a war on science.

UPDATE — Maybe my brain has been picked because Dorgan is from ND, not SD.  Oops.

(corrected for typos)


It Was the Best of Administrations, It Was the Worst…

March 15, 2010

I can’t decide what to think about the Obama administration on education policy.  This administration has said some of the best things about education reform I have heard out of any administration, but they have also said some of the worst things.

Take for example the plans for reauthorizing (or replacing) NCLB that came out over the weekend.  Obama/Duncan  have the good idea of getting rid of the unrealistic goal of universal proficiency in basic skills by all groups by 2014. But they have the bad idea of setting an even more unrealistic goal of universal college-readiness by 2020.  (Mental note — be sure to set deadline for unrealistic goals several years after end of one’s possible era of responsibility.  That way you are never responsible for failure. : ) )

They favor the good idea of focusing on growth in student achievement rather than percent proficient, but they endorse the bad idea of making the measures of achievement so mushy as to be useless, like including “learning environment” (whatever that is) in the measure and by wanting portfolio assessments.

They say they want to end micro-managing of schools from DC (not that this is really happening), but then they want national standards that would ultimately lead to a national curriculum, national testing, and national micro-managing.

They want to identify the worst schools and reorganize those schools, including firing bad teachers.  They also want to use test data to identify and reward the best teachers and schools.  This is all great!  But they don’t spell out any details in their proposals and want to leave drafting of legislation to Congress where these good things will almost certainly be removed or made impotent.

They deplore racial disparities in educational outcomes, but rather than empower low income minority families with vouchers, they want to empower them to sue their schools.  This sounds like No Lawyer Left Behind.  Giving disadvantaged groups legal power rather than market power hasn’t worked well for special ed and it won’t work well for low income minorities.

So, which one is it?  Is this the best education administration or the worst?  Or is it somehow both?  I can’t completely make up my mind, but one thing I do know — the good stuff they want is much less likely to happen than the bad stuff.  In that case, I guess I’d rather have a federal government that did as little as possible with education.

[UPDATED]  I left out the great idea in the new O’Duncan proposal that we get rid of “highly qualified” teacher requirements, which are understood as credentialing requirements and replace it with teacher quality assessments based on growth in test scores.  Of course, this was one of the ideas that has made the unions come out strongly against the proposal.


The Dam Continues to Crack

March 15, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Over the weekend, Pajamas Media carried my column on the Rhode Island teacher firing flap:

That leads us to the second question: why does Obama think he can advance himself by gratuitously hacking off the teachers’ unions? Answer: because the unions are on the way down, and he wants to ingratiate himself with the people who are taking them down.

On the left, the dam continues to crack. How long before it breaks?

And what happens when it does?

In the long term, I’m as optimistic as I ever have been about the prospects for real reform — especially for vouchers, the only reform that will make any of the other reforms sustainable. In the Cold War, the Russians had more men, more missiles, more tanks, and (let’s be honest) more guts. The only things we had that they didn’t were the entrepreneurial spirit and a just cause. And guess what? It turns out that in the long run, that’s what you really need.


Two Awful Tastes that Taste Awful Together

March 10, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

You can’t make this stuff up, folks.

The Democratic congressional leadership is now going to add their bill to eliminate all private student-loan lending, granting the government (i.e. themselves) a monopoly on all student loan business, to the same reconciliation process by which they’re jamming health care through.

As we know, the saga of federal involvement in student loans clearly illustrates the direct path from the “public option” to full-blown single-payer nationalization.

You would think they’d be shy to put the two right there next to each other. Then again, for those who haven’t learned this lesson by now, will hitting them in the face with it make any difference?

HT NRO


George Will on Perpetual Adolesence

March 4, 2010

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Related to this previous conversation, George Will weighs in on the modern “living in Mom’s basement” Peter Man American male.

Oi vey


The Federally Tilted Playing Field

March 3, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

In the spirited debate Jay has started on whether the feds should fund research analysis, here’s an angle nobody seems to have picked up – where the money comes from.

Most of Jay’s critics are pointing out that all research has to be funded by somebody, and lots of privately funded research is clearly biased, too – some of it as much as federal research, or more so.

In his replies, Jay has focused on what he thinks is public ignorance of the bias introduced in federally funded research. People assume that research funded by curricular development companies is biased, but they don’t assume that about government research. I’ll agree that that’s a problem to some extent, but I don’t think it’s the biggest problem.

The biggest problem is that government funding isn’t like private funding. Private funders control business interests, but government controls public policy. That provides a ton more potential for corrupting influence (even unconsciously). Which is stronger, the temptation to kiss up to a man who can make you rich or the temptation to kiss up to a man who can make you rich or destroy your whole life, or just about any outcome in between?

Add the fact that government can collect funds coercively from the entire economy and has far greater agency problems in its bureaucracy. This means government largesse is likely to be much more lavish than private largesse and is much less likely to come under any form of scrutiny, whether for cost/benefit purposes or accountability.

With private funders, everyone is equally free to fund the research they want done, and everyone is equally free to judge the results, including taking things with a grain (or a boulder) of salt if you don’t trust the source. Federal research funding tilts the playing field.


Feds And Research Shouldn’t Mix

March 2, 2010

 

As head of a department that has received and may wish to continue receiving federal research funds, it is completely contrary to my self-interest to say this:  the federal government should not be in the business of conducting or funding education policy research.  The federal government should facilitate research by greatly expanding the availability of individual student data sets stripped of identifying information.  But the federal government is particularly badly positioned to conduct or fund analyses based on those data.

The reasons for keeping the federal government out of education policy research should be obvious to everyone not blinded by the desire to keep eating at the trough.  First, the federal government develops and advocates for particular education policies, so it has a conflict of interest in evaluating those policies.  Even when those evaluations are outsourced to supposedly independent evaluators, they are never truly independent.  The evaluation business is a repeat-play game, so everyone understands that they cannot alienate powerful political forces too much without risking future evaluation dollars.  The safe thing to conclude in those circumstances is that the evidence is unclear about the effectiveness of a policy but future research is needed, which, not surprisingly, is what many federally funded evaluations find.

Unfortunately, political influence in education policy research is often more direct and explicit than the implicit distortions of a repeat-play game.  Every federally funded evaluation with which I am familiar has been subject to at least some, subtle political influence. 

I can’t mention most without breaking confidences, but I can briefly describe my own experience with a What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) panel on which I served (which was managed by a different firm than the one that currently manages WWC).  On that panel we were supposed to identify what was known from the research literature on how to turn around failing schools.  As we quickly discovered, there was virtually nothing known from rigorous research on how to successfully turn around failing schools.  I suggested that we should simply report that as our finding — nothing is known.  But we were told that the Department of Education wouldn’t like that  and we had to say something about how to turn around schools.  I asked on what basis we would draw those conclusions and was told that we should rely on our “professional judgment” informed by personal experience and non-rigorous research.  So, we dutifully produced a report that was much more of a political document than a scientific one.  We didn’t know anything from science about how to turn around schools, but we crafted a political answer to satisfy political needs.

In addition to being politically influenced, federally funded research is almost always overly expensive.  The cost of federal education policy research is many-fold more expensive than that research has to be.  There are several federal evaluations where the cost of the evaluation rivals the annual cost of the program being evaluated.

Beyond being politically distorted and cost-inefficient, a whole lot of federally funded research is really awful.  In particular, I am thinking of the work of the federally funded regional research labs.  For every useful study or review they release, there must be hundreds of drek.  The regional labs are so bad that the Department of Education has been trying to eliminate them from their budget for years.  But members of Congress want the pork, so they keep the regional labs alive.

Being politically distorted, cost-inefficient, and often of low quality is not a good combination.  Let’s get the feds out of the research business.  They can still play a critically important role of providing data sets to the research community, but they should not be funding evaluations or research summaries.  We need the feds to help with data because privacy laws are too great of a barrier for individual researchers.  But once basic data is available, the cost of analyzing the data should be quite low — just the time of the researchers and some computer equipment, perhaps supplemented with additional field data collection.  And if there is no “official” evaluation or “official” summary of the research literature, the research community is free to examine the evidence and draw its own conclusions.  Yes, there will be disagreement and messiness, but the world is uncertain and messy.  Freedom is uncertain and messy.  The solution is not to privilege over-priced, often lousy, politically driven federally funded work.

(edited for typos)


Keeping Them Honest, Part LXXXVII

March 1, 2010

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Andrew Coulson’s got the skinny on a shocking story of education officials in the UK arbitrarily revising students’ test scores to shape the political narrative they would create.

It’s the latest in a long line of cautionary tales about the kind of thing that happens when anyone other than parents is ultimately in charge of the system. Fans of Common Core, take note.

I am shocked – shocked! – to discover that political manipulation of education is going on in here!

Your federal grant for participating in Common Core Standards, monsieur.