Ed Next Goes All 21st Century On Us

August 20, 2009

Education Next launched a blog to accompany their re-designed web site.  It looks great!

And yours truly has a post on the Ed Next blog about teacher burn-out.  Check it out!


Pat Wolf In Ed Next

August 20, 2009

Pat Wolf has an article summarizing and clarifying the latest evidence from the official evaluation of the D.C. voucher program newly posted at Education Next.

The part that struck me the most was how strong the DC voucher results are compared to the results of all of the other rigorous evaluations sponsored by the U.S. Department of Education:

The achievement results from the D.C. voucher evaluation are also striking when compared to the results from other experimental evaluations of education policies. The National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance (NCEE) at the IES has sponsored and overseen 11 studies that are RCTs, including the OSP evaluation. Only 3 of the 11 education interventions tested, when subjected to such a rigorous evaluation, have demonstrated statistically significant achievement impacts overall in either reading or math. The reading impact of the D.C. voucher program is the largest achievement impact yet reported in an RCT evaluation overseen by the NCEE. A second program was found to increase reading outcomes by about 40 percent less than the reading gain from the DC OSP. The third intervention was reported to have boosted math achievement by less than half the amount of the reading gain from the D.C. voucher program. Of the remaining eight NCEE-sponsored RCTs, six of them found no statistically significant achievement impacts overall and the other two showed a mix of no impacts and actual achievement losses from their programs.


The Onion Provides Tips on How to Help Kids Succeed

August 20, 2009

As always, The Onion is there to help us get our kids ready to do well as school starts.

 My favorite tip: “Develop a working model for a reformed educational system that addresses the needs of every child at a reasonable taxpayer cost. Then become powerful and implement that system.”


Great Minds Think Alike

August 19, 2009

Just as we released our new study on special education vouchers in Florida, Marc Thiessen and Michael O’Hanlon have a piece in USA Today advocating for the policy, specifically to help students with autism. 

Thiessen is a Republican and fellow at the Hoover Institution and O’Hanlon is a Democrat and fellow at the Brookings Institution.  Special education vouchers clearly appeal across party lines.  And since disabilities are distributed roughly evenly across all racial and economic groups, the programs can have a broad base of political support to be adopted and protected from destructive regulation or roll-back efforts.  One thing we are learning from urban voucher programs targeted at disadvantaged populations is that they are very hard to sustain politically.  The targeted groups are also the most politically powerless.


Special Ed Vouchers Restrain Growth in Disabilities

August 18, 2009

Marcus Winters and I have a super-awesome study released today by the Manhattan Institute.  It shows that offering disabled students special education vouchers reduces the likelihood that public schools will identify students as disabled.

This isn’t what Andy Rotherham and Sara Mead expected.  They claimed in a 2003 report for the Progress Policy Institute that: “special education vouchers may actually exacerbate the over-identification problem by creating a new incentive for parents to have children diagnosed with a disability in order to obtain a voucher.”

It didn’t. The reason special education vouchers restrained growth in disabilities, rather than exacerbate it, is that the vouchers check public schools’ financial incentives to identify more students as disabled.  Public schools may get additional subsidies when they shift more students into special education, but if they then make students eligible for special education vouchers, they risk having those students walk out the door with all of their funding.  It makes the public schools think twice before over-identifying disabilities for financial reasons.

And outside of the DC bubble, schools control the process of whether students are identified as disabled — not parents.  So, if we can check the positive financial incentives that public schools have for over-identifying disabilities, we can significantly slow growth in special education.

Nearly 1 in 7 students nationwide is now classified as having a disability.  That’s 63% more than three decades ago.  It’s clear that this huge increase in disabilities was not caused by a true increase in the incidence of disabilities in the population.  No plague has afflicted our children over the last three decades to disable two-thirds more of them.

Instead, non-medical factors have been driving special education enrollments higher.  Chief among these is the financial incentives we offer schools in most states to shift more students into special education by providing additional subsidies for each student classified as disabled.

Some states have reformed their special education funding formulas to end these financial rewards for higher special education rolls.  Greg and I reported in a 2002 study that states that continued to pay schools per student identified as disabled had much higher rates of growth in special education than states that had reformed their funding formulas.  Elizabeth Dhuey of the University of Toronto and Stephen Lipscomb of the Public Policy Institute of California have confirmed these findings.

Julie Cullen of UC San Diego has found that “fiscal incentives can explain over 35 percent of the recent growth in student disability rates in Texas.”  And Sally Kwak, a student of David Card at UC Berkeley and now a professor at U of Hawaii, finds a significant slow-down in special education enrollments when California reformed its funding system.

The new study Marcus and I released today builds upon this growing research by showing yet again that public schools strongly consider non-medical factors when deciding whether to classify students as disabled.  I don’t mean to suggest that all school officials are conscious of these incentives or acting with evil intention.  But it is clear that the system in which they operate and their actions are shaped by these financial incentives.

If we discovered that hospitals were filling their beds with healthy people who just felt a little tired in order to obtain additional government subsidies, we would be outraged and demand dramatic reforms.  Public schools are doing the same and it is time we get outraged and demand reforms.


Super-Awesome Study About to Be Released

August 17, 2009

I’ve heard there is a super-awesome study about to be released by the Manhattan Institute on how special education vouchers affect the probability that students will be newly identified as having a disability.  I hear the study is fantastic and the authors are super-smart.

Stay tuned!

UPDATE:  Here’s the study.


Public Schools Start 12-Step Program

August 17, 2009

The Wall Street Journal has a piece today on how urban school districts around the country have launched marketing programs to lure students back from charters and neighboring districts after having lost large portions of their enrollment. 

This is the first step in their 12-step program — acknowledging that they have a problem and need to do something about it.  For all of you folks out there who doubt that public schools respond to competitive pressure (Rick Hess, Sol Stern, Mike Petrilli, Kevin Carey, etc…), how do you explain this response?

I know, I know they might respond that marketing is not a real response in that it does not involve actually improving school quality.  That’s true, but if the schools are doing things to improve, how would anyone know about it if the schools don’t market their strengths? 

And I would agree that a marketing campaign is not a sufficient response, but it is an important sign that they are noticing the competition and experiencing pain from losing enrollment.  They’ve acknowledge that there is a power higher than them… and it is the customer.


Are Schools Prepared for the Flu?

August 11, 2009

Just because the current influenza epidemic has been relatively mild doesn’t mean that it will continue to be so.  If you want to read something scary, check out this paper by noted flu researcher, John M. Barry.  Barry is a distinguished scholar at the Tulane University Center for Bioenvironmental Research and author of the award-winning book on the 1918 flu pandemic, The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History .

In the new paper, Barry writes:

The novel H1N1 virus [the current swine flu] seems thus far to be following the pattern of the first three pandemics, and it seems highly likely that it will return in full flower. If the virus is fully adapted to and efficient at infecting humans, this would occur soon, possibly during the influenza season in the southern hemisphere or possibly a few months later in the northern hemisphere. The 1918 and 1957 viruses both exploded in September and October in the northern hemisphere, even though this is not the influenza season….

The most disturbing pieces of information are two:

First, unlike seasonal influenza viruses, novel H1N1 seems to have the ability to bind to cells deep in the lung, which H5N1 does and which the 1918 virus could do.

Second, molecular biology has provided is that, according to scientists at CDC and elsewhere, “genetic markers predictive of adaptation to humans are not currently present in the [H1N1] viruses, suggesting previously unrecognized determinants could be responsible for transmission.” This suggests two things: first, this virus may have other things to teach us; second, we do not know the whole story of how influenza becomes transmissible from human to human, so our monitoring of H5N1 for these markers is incomplete.

Novel H1N1 also lacks genetic markers for virulence identified in the 1918 virus and is expected to remain a mild virus, but this information about transmissibility has unsettling implications.

H5N1 continues to infect and kill people, and Robert Webster, one of the most respected virologists in the world, has expressed concern about a further reassortment of novel H1N1 with H5N1. This is not so far-fetched. A recent laboratory study in which ferrets (the usual animal model for influenza studies) were coinfected with H5N1 and the seasonal H3N2 virus found that a new reassortant virus with genes from both was produced 9 percent of the time.This reassortant was likely much milder than H5N1 itself. (H5N1 is virulent because it binds only to receptors deep inside the lung; other influenza viruses bind to receptors, usually in the upper respiratory tract; the reassortants all were found in the upper respiratory tract.) But given the lethality of H5N1, a reassortant that includes it is frightening. Assuming H1N1 matures to full pandemic status and begins to infect 20 to 40 percent of the population, reassortment with H5N1 is a threat.

Let me translate — the current swine flu, called novel H1N1, is easily transmitted but relatively mild.  The same was true in the first waves of past pandemics.  But if there is a reassortment, a mixing, of H1N1 with the more lethal but less transmissible avian flu, H5N1, we are in for big trouble.  Laboratory experiments with ferrets suggest that the two might mix to combine the transmissibility of one with the lethality of the other. 

Don’t be fooled by the mild first wave.  The mixing could take place in a second or third season, as it did in 1918.

If this does happen we will have all sorts of things to worry about, but one of them is what we do about education.  Despite headlines declaring Swine Flu Should Not Close Most Schools, Federal Officials Say, we may well have to close large numbers of schools.  If that happens do we have contingency plans prepared?  Do we have plans to provide education even if large numbers of students have to stay at home?  Will we have procedures for using phone and internet technologies to disseminate assignments and instruction?

I’m willing to bet that fewer than 10 of the 10,000 school districts in the country have workable emergency plans ready for a deadly flu pandemic.  Just look at the school districts around New Orleans.  It’s not as if school districts all along the Gulf of Mexico should be surprised that a hurricane might hit and close school for several weeks.  It’s likely to happen at least with some districts on a fairly regular basis.  And yet none of them had workable plans for how to educate students when the schools closed.  They just relied on sending many of those students to other cities outside of the impacted area or leaving them to wander the streets.

But what will happen when schools all over the country are closing because of a deadly flu pandemic?  We won’t just be able to send the kids to some other, unaffected city.  Let’s hope and pray that it won’t happen, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be prepared in case it does.


Schoolhouses, Courthouses, and Statehouses

August 9, 2009

The new book from Rick Hanushek and Alfred Lindseth, Schoolhouses, Courthouses, and Statehouses, is a remarkably comprehensive and accessible review of K-12 education reform strategies.  It’s a must-read for education policymakers, advocates, and students — at both the graduate and undergraduate levels.  Even experienced researchers will find this to be an essential reference, given its broad sweep and extensive citations.

The book basically makes four arguments.  First it establishes how important K-12 educational achievement really is to economic success and how far we are lagging our economic competitors in this area.  Second, it demonstrates the dominance and utter failure of input-oriented reform strategies, including across-the-board spending increases and class-size reductions.  Third, it describes how the court system has perpetuated failed input-reform strategies after having bought intellectually dishonest methods of calculating how much spending schools really need.  And fourth, it makes the case for reform strategies that involve “performance-based funding,” including merit pay, accountability systems, and choice.

None of these arguments is original to this book.  But to the extent that others have made these arguments, they have drawn heavily on Rick Hanushek’s research.  In this book you get to hear it directly from the source and you get to hear it all so persuasively and completely.

If I have any complaint about the book it is that they are too restrained in their criticisms of the methods by which adequate school spending has been determined and the “researchers” who have developed and profited from those methods.  These fraudulent analyses have justified court decisions ordering billions of dollars to be taken from taxpayers and blown ineffectively in schools.  And the quacks promoting these methods have made millions of dollars in consulting fees in the process.

Those methods include the “professional judgment approach,” which essentially consists of gathering a group of educators and asking them how much money they think they would need to provide an “adequate” education,  Naturally, they need flying saucers, ponies, and a laser tag arena to ensure an adequate education. 

Another method is the “evidence-based approach,” which selectively reads the research literature to identify what it claims are effective educational practices.  It then sums the cost of those practices while paying no attention to how many are really necessary for an adequate education or whether any of them are really cost-effective.

There is also the “successful schools approach,” which looks at how much money a typical successful school spends and calls for all schools to spend at least that much.  This of course ignores the fact that many successful schools spend less than the typical amount and are still successful.  One would have thought it impossible for them to be successful with less money than that deemed necessary to succeed. 

And lastly, there is the “cost-function approach.”  This approach takes the conventional finding that higher spending, controlling for other factors, has little to no relationship with student achievement, and then turns that finding on its head.  It does this by switching  the dependent variable from student achievement to cost.  The question then becomes: how much each unit of achievement contributes to school costs.  Switching the dependent variable does nothing to change the lack of relationship between spending and achievement.  If you hide behind enough statistical mumbo-jumbo you can hope that the courts won’t notice that there is still virtually no relationship between spending and achievement controlling for other factors.

The Hanushek and Lindseth book lays all of this out (see especially chapter 7), but they are remarkably restrained in denouncing these approaches and the people who cynically profit from them.  I don’t think we should be so restrained.  The promoters of this snake oil are often university professors with sterling national reputations.  They’ve cashed in those reputations to market obviously flawed methods.  We shouldn’t let them do this without paying a significant price in their reputation.

The University of Southern California’s Larry Picus, and the University of Wisconsin’s Allan Odden, are both past presidents of the well-respected American Education Finance Association.  They shouldn’t be able to sell the “evidence-based approach” to 5 states for somewhere around $3 million without people pointing and laughing when they show up at conferences.

I know that Rick Hanushek and Alfred Lindseth are too professional and scholarly to call these folks frauds, but I’m not sure what else one could honestly call them.  Rick comes close in his Education Next article on these school funding adequacy consultants, entitled, “The Confidence Men.”  But in this book,perhaps with the tempered emotions of his co-author,  he adopts a more restrained tone.  Perhaps this is all for the best because the book maintains the kind of scholarly temperament that strengthens its persuasiveness to those who would be more skeptical. 

This has been a great year for education reform books.  Schoolhouses, Courthouses, and Statehouses joins Terry Moe and John Chubb’s Liberating Learning, released earlier this summer, as members of the canon of essential education reform works.


Cash for Crest

August 6, 2009

As Congress scrambles to add a couple billion more to the “cash for clunkers” program, the DC punditocracy sees the program as a sign that government programs are turning the economy around.  Seizing the positive moment, President Obama flew to Indiana to decalre that the economic tide is turning thanks to his efforts and to promise more government programs to spur economic activity.

Who knows if the economy is really turning or how robust a recovery will be?  But whatever progress does occur has nothing to do with cash for clunkers or other stimulus spending. 

Yes, giant government subsidies for new car purchases have led to many more new car sales.  But that doesn’t mean that the program has made a net contribution to economic activity.  All that the program did was divert economic activity from one area to another or from one time to another.  The increase in new car sales comes at the expense of used car sales, new car sales in the future, and the purchase of other goods and services.  There is no free lunch.

If we offered giant government subsidies for anything, we would see more purchases of that thing, but that doesn’t mean that the subsidies made a net contribution to economic activity.

Just yesterday I noticed that Procter and Gamble reported an 18% drop in profits from an 11% drop in sales.  Maybe we need a government program to spark more sales for P&G.  The government could offer “cash for Crest,” P&G’s toothpaste brand.  If the government threw a couple billion dollars of subsidies at toothpaste sales, I’m sure we’d see an explosion in toothpaste purchases.  But if the government did so, all we would be doing is shifting consumption to toothpaste away from other current or future consumption.

The Wall Street Journal has proposed the proper solution to this problem.  How about if we have a $4,500 subsidy for everything?  Of course, the WSJ correctly notes that this is “crackpot economics.”  But that somehow doesn’t stop Obama or the punditocracy from declaring economic victory for government planning.