Tsol

February 26, 2010

Maybe I have it all backwards about Lost.  Maybe Jacob is actually the bad guy and Smokey is the good one.  At the very least, Lost is going to make is wonder about who is really good and bad.  A twist at the end, where Jacob turns out to be the villain would be quite a shocker.

Here’s the case for Smokey being good and Jacob being bad…  Perhaps the trap that Smokey says he is in is being condemned to a world where the same mistakes are committed.  In the parallel world we can see what it would look like if everyone got out of that trap by never coming to the Island.  Kate would stop running.  Locke would accept his disability.  Jack would resolve his daddy issues.

Smokey wants to release everyone from the traps of their mistakes and let them move on.  Jacob tricks people so that they never learn from their mistakes and stay ont he Island.  Jacob gives Sawyer the pen so that he writes his pledge to seek vengeance.  Jacob enables Kate to shoplift, so that she never learns to live within the law.  Jacob heals Locke but perhaps in a way that he never accepts his disability.

Smokey is an advocate of free will and choice.  Jacob seems to be manipulating everyone so that they do what he needs them to do. 

Yes, Smokey has killed people, but Jacob may have killed many more.  If the purge was done by Jacob order(and it seems to have been, given Richard’s loyalty to Jacob and involvement in the purge), then Jacob is a mass murderer.  Jacob’s people also tortured Claire and Sayid.  That doesn’t seem very nice.

Jacob may well be the good guy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Lost flips on this issue.

4 Comments | Lost | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

He Fought the Law and…

February 23, 2010

If you think that it is OK for college professors to critique public officials without fear of harassment or retribution, you should hear this story from the Mercer County Voice.

In Mercer County, New Jersey a political science professor, Michael Glass, was discussing the state’s $2 billion shortfall with his students.  In particular, he mentioned problems with public employees who “double dip” by receiving full pension benefits while also receiving their full salary following a ritualistic “retirement.”  Students asked for an example, so the professor mentioned the elected county sheriff, Kevin Larkin, who had been featured in the local paper for receiving an $85,000 annual pension in addition to his $129,634 regular salary.

A student in the class texted a message that reached Larkin, describing the class discussion.  Larkin then showed up at the class later that evening and called the professor out to the hallway.  Following their exchange, the professor apologized to the class for making disparaging remarks about Larkin with the sheriff standing right next to him. 

Following the apology Larkin left the classroom, saying “This isn’t over.”  An aide to Larkin, who was standing in the hall, said as the door was closing, “”You’re a terrible teacher, you should get your facts from a book.”

This story would be completely unbelievable if it didn’t ring so true.

2 Comments | politics | Tagged: , | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

Indiana Might Be the Next Florida

February 21, 2010

Matt has written numerous times on the remarkable progress that has been made in Florida, see for example here.  Forces are gathering in Indiana that suggests they may be next to try to full court press of Florida reforms.  The governor, the state superintendent, the Indianapolis newspaper,  and a bipartisan coalition of state legislators on the education committee seem poised to pursue some significant reforms.

First up on their agenda is passage of a bill to end the social promotion of 3rd graders who are unable to read at a basic level.  Patricia Levesque and I each have op-eds in the Indy Star on this topic , with a favorable introduction from the editor.

Check it out.

Leave a Comment » | social promotion | Tagged: , | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

Getting Lost

February 20, 2010

My theory from last week still seems to be holding up with the new episode, The Substitute.

Smokey is all dead people and seeks the destruction of the world (and all life), while Jacob is associated with life and particularly babies.

In The Substitute we learned that Jacob is searching for his replacement and that there are six candidates for that job, each of which is represented by one of The Numbers.  Smokey’s game is to get all 6 off the Island and to kill Jacob and then he will succeed at destroying the world.  We’ve been told in the past that The Numbers are related to the destruction of the world and now we are starting to learn how.

Smokey was close to getting them all off with the freighter.  He managed to get Jack, Hurley, baby Kwon (I’ll bet it’s the baby, not Sun or Jin who is the candidate), and Sayid off in the helicopter.  He tricked Locke to leave by posing as Christian (remember, Smokey is all dead people we see on the Island) in the cabin and by the wheel to convince Locke to move the Island and be transported off the Island.  If Sawyer hadn’t jumped from the helicopter we would have had all six off the Island, could have killed Jacob through Ben, and would have destroyed the world. 

Interestingly, sacrifice and suffering are essential to keeping the 6 on the Island.  That is, life requires sacrifice and suffering.  Sawyer sacrificed to stay.  And we see in the flash sideways that everyone’s suffering is getting resolved.  Locke comes to terms with his disability.  He has good relations with his dad, who is coming to his wedding.  He’s getting married to Helen.  Hurley has good luck in the parallel world.  Kate is innocent.  We can see what the world would be for them if they were never drawn to Island and it looks pretty good.  But their personal happiness is associated with global destruction.

And when Jacob visited each of the 6, he ensured the suffering that would draw them to the Island.  He brought Locke back from death so that he would be disabled, futiley go to Australia for a walkabout, and end up on flight.  He gave Sawyer a pen so that he would write his ledge to kill the man responsible for his parents’ deaths.  That quest drew Sawyer to Australia and onto the flight.  Kate was saved from being caught for shoplifting by Jacob.  If she had been caught at that young age, maybe she would not have been always on the run and ultimately a murderer.

Even though Smokey represents death his appeals are seductive, especially to people suffering.  Sawyer’s current gloom is precisely what makes him vulnerable to Smokey’s attempts to get him off the Island.

Over the rest of this last season, each of the six will die or leave the Island.  But baby Kwon will save the day because she is really the candidate, not Sun or Jin.  And she and baby Aaron (who now appears to be on the Island with Claire) will somehow become the Adam and Eve in the cave.

5 Comments | Lost | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

Lunch With Max and Warwick

February 15, 2010

I had lunch today with Max Brantley of the Arkansas Times and Warwick Sabin of the Oxford American (and formerly of the Arkansas Times) as well as my colleague, Josh McGee.  I have to say that I really enjoyed it. 

Max can be harsh and opinionated but I have a soft spot for harsh and opinionated folks, sometimes being one myself.  And at least with Max you always know where he stands. 

I also think all four of us agreed much more than we disagreed.  We agreed in deploring the lack of quality opportunities in education, particularly for disadvantaged students.  We agreed that some people working in our schools need to find a different profession.  We agreed that we should figure out ways to get rock star teachers with high pay.  We agreed that schools ought to have high standards and offer rewards to students for meeting those standards. 

We disagreed about expanding choice and competition in education.  Max and Warwick seem to view education as a zero-sum game where some schools can do better only by taking away kids from other schools, which are made worse as a result.  I think there’s a good amount of evidence to support the view that schools rise to the challenge and improve when they are faced with greater competition from an expanded set of choices.

I also agreed with them in admitting that I have lost my enthusiasm for merit pay.  I still think there are some positive effects from merit pay, or as I put it in a report that Max links to on his blog: “The evidence that is available, however, provides some grounds for moderate optimism about merit pay.”  I just don’t think the moderate benefits are worth the enormous energy that the policy consumes as well as the potential for cheating or other undesired effects.  As, I told Max, Warwick, and Josh at lunch, the most effective form of merit pay is getting rid of bad teachers.  That would make a much bigger difference than the potential to earn a 1% or 2%  bonus.

I don’t know why I’ve been so slow to learn this lesson, but it is generally a good idea to sit down with people with whom you’ve had public disagreements because you may discover that your disagreements are less than everyone thought.  Yes, they are still there and still important, but we can also make progress by focusing on the ideas we share.

1 Comment | charter schools, teacher pay | Tagged: , | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

Greg in PJM Keeps ‘Em Honest With Choice

February 14, 2010

Greg has a great post today on Pajama’s Media about how school choice is the secret sauce that keeps all other reforms honest.  Think of it as a love letter to education reform. : )

Here’s a highlight:

… the biggest political winner in education by far in the past year has been charter schools. I’ll admit I was skeptical at first, but the Obama administration’s pro-charter rhetoric has been more than just talk. Charter caps are being lifted because the administration really does support charters.

Why? I think it’s mainly because a critical mass of their political base on the left has embraced the principle that parents should be put in charge through choice, and I think that has happened precisely because they want a reform that will keep the system honest. More and more people on the left are sick and tired of the empty promises they’ve been peddled for decades: that this time, throwing another huge chunk of money at the blob will fix the schools — and this time, we really, really, really mean it, cross our hearts and hope to die.

The social justice folks on the left just don’t buy it anymore. They now see that the blob has been pulling the wool over their eyes for generations. You can imagine how they’re feeling about that right now. And woe betide you if the wrath of the social justice folks falls upon you; they’re not known for being gentle with those whom they perceive as enemies of social justice.

Case in point: Did you know that the same team of scorched-earth, take-no-prisoners, scruple-at-nothing propagandists who produced An Inconvenient Truth has now made a hard-hitting documentary bashing teachers’ unions and advocating charter schools? And it was the very first film picked up for distribution at the Sundance Film Festival?

… The recent surge in the political fortunes of charter schools has been fueled by the less dramatic but steadily growing success of private school choice: school vouchers and similar policies that allow students to attend private schools using public funds. There are now 24 private school choice programs serving 190,000 students nationwide, up from just five programs in 1996. And private school choice is continuing to gain ground every year with the creation of new programs and expansion of existing programs, even in tough years like 2009.

As my friend Jay Greene likes to put it, vouchers make the world safe for charters. That is, it’s because of the more modest success of vouchers that charters have exploded. As long as vouchers are on the march and are thus a credible threat, triangulating legislators who need the blob’s support can embrace charters without paying too high a price for doing so. If the blob cuts off its support for legislators who back charters, it won’t have anyone on its side when vouchers are on the agenda. Because vouchers are out there, the blob has no choice but to suck it up and pretend to be OK with charters.

The next question, though, is whether charters alone are going to be sufficient to keep the system honest. Charters have ridden to success with the help of a lot of new supporters, but those supporters are a demanding constituency. The social justice folks expect results.

4 Comments | charter schools, vouchers | Tagged: , , , | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

Coulson on Brookings Report

February 14, 2010

Over on the Cato blog, Andrew Coulson has a thoughtful post on the recent Brookings report on school choice which I  helped craft.  For the most part I agree with what Andrew has to say.  I agree that there is considerable international and historical evidence that could have been included in the Brookings report but was not.  I also agree that certain compromises on school choice can be counter-productive, particularly over the long run.

The disagreement I have with Andrew is that he is treating the Brookings report as if it were a piece of scholarship rather than the political document that it really is.  I do not say this to disparage the report, which I helped craft and endorse.  We self-consciously viewed our task in writing the report as trying to present policy options on school choice that would be viable in the current political climate and potentially attractive to the Obama administration.

Once you understand that, it is easier to understand why we would leave out most international evidence — it is generally considered irrelevant or unpersuasive by most current policy elites.  They may well be mistaken in dismissing this set of evidence, as Andrew argues, but that is their view so we didn’t waste their time or ours by reviewing that evidence.

It is also easier to understand why we didn’t advocate unregulated education markets.  That simply isn’t going to happen in the current political climate, so we didn’t bother with it.  Instead we advocated for a variety of compromises on expanding choice and competition within a regulated framework.

Of course, then we are left vulnerable to Andrew’s point that these compromises may be counterproductive, particularly in the long run.  My only response to that is that incrementalism is our only feasible strategy for getting the kind of choice and competition we really need.  While we must always be vigilent about the dangers of certain compromises, I think we have no choice but to try to build on incremental reforms.

1 Comment | charter schools, vouchers | Tagged: , , | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

Lost for Life

February 12, 2010

This time I really think I’ve figured something out.  Really.  I mean it.

The Island has two particularly strange characteristics (among several others):  babies can’t be born on it (with important exceptions) and dead people walk around on it.  We know that one of those dead people, Locke, is actually Esau (Smokey).  I’m willing to bet that all dead people we have seen walking around on the Island are in fact Smokey, including Christian, Claire, Boone, Harper, Ecko’s brother, etc…  Smokey is death.

I’m also willing to bet that babies born on the Island, including Aaron and Alex, are somehow connected to Jacob or are Jacob.  Jacob represents life.

In the conversation on the beach between Jacob and Esau in the final episode of last season, Esau says that it always ends the same way.  I think he means that we all die.  He repeats this theme when he tells Ben that only Locke understood how pitiful his life was — perhaps all life is.  In Smokey’s view life is futile ending in death.

Jacob agrees that it always ends the same way (we all die) but there is progress.  Jacob believes in the purposefulness of life.

Remember that Ben brings Juliet to the Island so that they can have babies, perhaps expanding Team Jacob.  Widmore, on the other hand, wants to kill baby Alex and ultimately does through the mercenaries.  Widmore is part of Team Esau.

Also, the dead Alex appears to Ben under the Temple scaring him into doing whatever Locke says, but Locke is actually Smokey at that point.  Alex has to be dead so that Smokey can appear as her and trick Ben into following Locke’s orders to kill Jacob.

I don’t know what the “infected” people, Sayid, the new Claire, and Rousseau’s colleagues, really are.  Perhaps they are being drawn into Team Esau.  Remember that Rousseau’s colleagues went under the Temple, where Smokey attacked them, and Rousseau did not.  Perhaps Smokey infects people there, maybe because they went into a spring like Sayid did.

We also know that Ben summoned Smokey to kill the mercenaries by draining a spring, again suggesting that Smokey and the spring are connected.

I don’t have it all figure out — not by  a long stretch — but I’m pretty confident that this death/life theme will help tie the plot together.

3 Comments | Lost | Tagged: | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

Charter Chatter

February 10, 2010

Readers of JPGB have already seen the working paper, but Education Next now has the peer-reviewed and published version of Booker, Sass, Gill, and Zimmer’s study of the effect of charter high school on graduation and college attendance.  Since you are way ahead of the curve you already knew that attending a charter high school increases the probability that a student will graduate high school and go to college.

The study is so clever because it focuses on students who attended charter middle schools.  Some went on to charter high school and some did not.  By comparing the two groups Booker, et al reduce the selection bias of choice, since all of the students chose charter schools at least for middle school.  But there may still be some selection bias in who chooses to continue in charter high school, so Booker, et al address that with a neato instrumental variable.  Some students don’t go on to charter high school because there isn’t one available nearby.  Their analysis predicts whether students continue to a charter high school based on the availability of nearby charter options.

Check out the highly readable Ed Next article for yourself.  Also watch the podcast interview with Brian Gill.

5 Comments | charter schools | Tagged: , | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

Bad Politics

February 9, 2010

As I’ve written several times before, I don’t believe that the various federal government stimulus efforts did anything to help the economy.  In fact, they’ve done quite a lot of economic damage by distorting a more efficient allocation of capital and by encouraging the moral hazard where private actors who take unreasonable and large risks get to keep the profits if their bet works and get bailed out by taxpayers if it doesn’t. 

However, plenty of smart people, including a whole lot of folks at market-oriented think tanks, thought large-scale federal intervention in the economy was necessary to stave off an economic collapse. 

Whatever you think of the economic merits of federal stimulus efforts, one thing is very clear — giant federal stimulus efforts were bad politics for President Obama.  It may have made some political sense for an outgoing President Bush to do whatever he could to avoid being cast as the next Herbert Hoover.  But Obama’s political interests should have been different.  He entered office in the midst of a severe economic downturn that had started under his predecessor.  If he had followed the smart political example of Ronald Reagan he would have basically let the downturn run its course and then have rapid economic growth following.  Instead, Obama (and Bush’s) stimulus efforts essentially borrowed consumption from the recovery to soften the severity of the downturn.  The downturn may not have been as bad as it would have been, but the recovery is also much weaker than it would have been.

Reagan’s example may or may not be good policy, but it is certainly good politics.  As any student of Machiavelli learns, you should have all of the bad at the beginning and then let the benefits roll in over time.

3 Comments | economics, politics | Permalink
Posted by Jay P. Greene

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