Correction on MJS and the “Funding Flaw”

December 12, 2008

white-out

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Yesterday I posted an analysis of a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article. The article reported as fact, not opinion, that the Milwaukee voucher program has a “funding flaw” because it fails to pay the Milwaukee public schools to teach students whom the Milwaukee public schools do not teach.

The occasion for the article was a debate over whether it was still true, as it had been in previous years, that the Milwaukee voucher program increases costs for local property taxpayers – this is what people had always meant in the past when they talked about the “funding flaw” in the program.

The claim made by the local voucher movement that the program no longer increased costs for property taxpayers seemed solid to me at the time, and the voucher opponents quoted in the article tacitly accepted it by desperately trying to change the subject. To my knowledge, nobody else had disputed the claim. So I reported the claim as true.

Robert Costrell, who knows more about this than anyone, now says he thinks the claim that vouchers no longer cost extra in local property taxes is incorrect. Apparently it comes down to whether a certain element in the formula varies by enrollment or not.

So I’ve attached a correction to the original post, and I apologize that I didn’t wait longer to hear from more people before reporting the claim as true.

That said, the bulk of my post was on another subject (the attempt by some Milwaukee politicians to use the voucher program to fleece state taxpayers, and MJS’s docility in reporting their obviously specious claims as true) and on that subject I stand by everything I wrote. I only hope my carelessness on this other point doesn’t help get MJS off the hook for its irresponsibility.

(Edited to more clearly differentiate Costrell’s thoughts from my own.)

(UPDATE: Bob Costrell’s new analysis is here.)


MJS: Failure to Steal Money Is a “Funding Flaw”

December 11, 2008

pickpocket

“I beg of you, Monsieur, watch yourself. Be on guard. This place is full of vultures . . . vultures everywhere. Everywhere.”

HT mcgady.net

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Update: Robert Costrell says he thinks the claim that vouchers are now saving money for local taxpayers is incorrect. Apparently it comes down to a question of whether a certain item in the funding formula varies by enrollment or not. Costrell knows this stuff better than anyone, so I’m happy to defer to him.

At the time I wrote this post, I only had the MJS story to go on, and even the school choice opponents quoted in the article (Mayor Barrett and Superintendent Andrekopoulos) weren’t disputing the savings claim. So I wrote the post as though the savings claim had been implicitly accepted by voucher opponents because it had, in fact, been implicitly accepted by them. But I shouldn’t have actually reported the claim as true just because voucher opponents were implicitly accepting it as true, and I apologize for my carelessness.

That said, the MJS story is still amazingly irresponsible and I don’t regret a word of what I said about its complicity in Barrett and Andrekopoulos’s attmept to fleece Wisconsin taxpayers. I only hope that my own carelessness doesn’t help get MJS off the hook for printing this stuff.

(This update has been edited to more clearly differentiate Costrell’s thoughts from my own.)

For years, the Milwaukee voucher program had what the locals call “the funding flaw,” under which some local Milwaukee property tax revenues were diverted for every student who used the voucher. When the program was first enacted in 1990, there was no “funding flaw,” and it saved money for both the state and local Milwaukee taxpayers, just like most voucher programs. But in 1999 the rules were changed, and the program began diverting property taxes; the state profited handsomly at the expense of the city, using the voucher program as an intermediary. As a result, from 1999 until 2007, the program was a drain on local resources. The school choice movement in Milwaukee never supported this practice and worked to help stop it, but of course state politicians were never interested in helping, and the voucher program was always blamed for the local tax drain.

But now things have changed. This year, the program is once again saving local money – the amount the city loses from the program is now down below what it saves in reduced educational costs because it doesn’t have to teach the students in the program. So there is no more “funding flaw.”

Not so fast! Over the weekend, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel ran a very strange story claiming, not as opinion but as fact, that the “funding flaw” was never just about property taxes. Another, much more serious “funding flaw” has been lurking unnoticed in the bushes for all these years – namely, that the program fails to steal money from state taxpayers and transfer it to Milwaukee public schools.

I’m not sure anyone had ever heard about this “other” funding flaw before now. Call it the super double secret funding flaw.

1) The article begins by citing an argument between voucher proponents and opponents over whether the “funding flaw” still exists. It evenhandedly reports the claims on both sides: on the one hand, the school choice movement has facts and figures showing that voucher kids are now a net gain, not a net drain, for Milwaukee taxpayers. On the other hand, property taxes are going up and the people who run the public school system “associate a lot of that increase” with the voucher program. Facts and figures on one side versus mere assertion on the other – well, obviously there are two equally valid points of view about this controversial question! Who says the media aren’t evenhanded?

 

2) The article then lays out the facts: the “funding flaw” was always that a voucher student cost Milwaukee more than a public school student in property taxes. Now that’s not true anymore. The school choice folks are pointing out this inconvenient truth and saying, reasonably enough, that there’s no more funding flaw.

Then we get this: 

[Milwaukee Mayor Tom] Barrett and MPS Superintendent William Andrekopoulos dismiss that notion, saying the amount of property tax dollars per student illustrated only one part of the flaw. It was the main thing they pointed to because, frankly, it was easier to understand than other aspects. But, they say, the other aspects are actually a bigger deal.

So all these years they’ve been making a big deal over less important issues while concealing the real problem, but now, at last, they’re prepared to come clean and talk about the real problem.

Did you catch the casual insertion of the word “frankly” in the second sentence? This is the MJS reporter speaking in his own voice rather than quoting – but he’s such a puppet of the system’s defenders that their “frankly” comes out of his mouth. When Barrett stubs his toe, do MJS reporters say “ouch”?

 

 3) Then comes the really amazing part. MJS reports, as fact and not opinion, that the funding flaw always consisted of two problems. The first was the property tax issue, which now favors vouchers rather than public school kids – although when the story gets into the details of this, it never directly admits this as fact; it is reported as a claim being made by school choice proponents, and only sophisticated readers will be able to figure out from the reporter’s convoluted words that what the school choice proponents are saying is, in fact, indisputably true.

The alleged other part of the funding flaw, the super double secret one, is that voucher students are not counted as students being educated in Milwaukee public schools for purposes of setting the funding levels for Milwaukee public schools.

 

Got that? MJS reports as fact, not opinion, that the voucher program is flawed because it fails to force the state to pay Milwaukee public schools to teach kids that Milwaukee public schools do not, in fact, actually teach.

 

But of course the story doesn’t say this as clearly as I’ve just put it, or it would be obvious that this is sophistry in the service of a naked political agenda. A reader who didn’t already know the ins and outs of school finance would never realize from the article that the supposed other “flaw” is that the program doesn’t pay Milwaukee schools to teach students whom they don’t teach.

 

4) The article then goes on to note that fixing the super double secret funding “flaw” would be deeply unpopular because it would take money away from other areas of the state. The unstated implication is that it would be much more sensible to scrap the unworkable voucher program altogether.

Well, no kidding it would be unpopular for MPS to try to use the voucher program as an excuse to take money from state taxpayers to teach students that MPS doesn’t teach. Taking money to do something that you don’t do is called stealing.

What’s really galling is that this attempt to steal from state taxpayers is framed (by MJS as well as by Barrett and Andrekopoulos) as an attempt to “fix” an alleged funding “flaw” – the implication being that money is somehow being unfairly withheld from MPS. So the guy warning you about thieves is in fact the thief. I think that may actually be Andrekopoulos’s picture at the top of this post.

 

5) The article then parades Robert Costrell’s big cost analysis showing that vouchers cost more than they save for local taxpayers. At the very end of the paragraph, it quickly notes that this analysis “does not include figures from this fall.” In other words, the conclusion that the voucher program costs Milwaukee money is out of date because the facts on the ground have changed, and it has no relevance to the story (except by confusing readers who aren’t paying close attention).

 

6) Finally, at the end, the school choice movement is allowed to come back onstage and point out that Milwaukee public school spending and state aid to Milwaukee have both been growing relentlessly for years. Then we get this:

 

Andrekopoulos said in an interview that the main point is that something has to be changed, and the state funding system, including how vouchers are paid for, is the place to turn.

He said that Milwaukee residents are facing a 14.6% tax levy increase this year, even though the actual MPS budget went up less than 2%.

“Doesn’t that seem wrong?” Andrekopoulos said. “Something’s not right.”

This, like the previous claims about the super double secret “other funding flaw,” is sophistry pure and simple. Property taxes pay for much more than just schools, and the MPS budget gets a lot of revenue from sources other than property taxes. So these figures are apples and oranges; you can’t compare the two.

 

It would be like the UAW arguing that Rick Wagoner’s salary costs GM more than the UAW jobs bank, because budget category A (which includes spending on Wagoner’s salary, engine parts, steel bolts, and the company health plan) costs more than budget category B (which includes spending on the jobs bank, tires, car doors, and lunches in GM company cafeterias).

 

Until you break down the categories and look at what the individual components cost, you’re just blowing smoke. And when you break down the categories, vouchers save Milwaukee money – which is exactly what the MJS article established all the way back at the beginning.

I’ve seen a lot of irresponsible journalism, but this article just leaves me dumbfounded.

(UPDATE: Bob Costrell’s new analysis is here)


Get Lost 6

December 5, 2008

lost-game

HT New York Magazine; photo illustration by Everett Bogue

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

It’s a special “great interregnum” edition of Get Lost!

I figured I would pick up our Lost feature and write about the coming season, what with the recent release of several promo videos for season 5, including this two-minute sneak peek . . .

. . . about which I think the only thing that needs to be said is: you can’t get that kind of court order without disclosing your name, morons. Would it have been so hard to come up with a more plausible way to conceal the identity of the forces behind the order? Maybe have somebody do it under a fake name? This is like last season when Sun supposedly bought her father’s company with the Oceanic court settlement. I know Lost has sometimes been aimless, but when did it get just plain dumb?

But anyway, as I started watching the trailers, which are mostly made up of clips from last season, and as I read over the final installment of our Get Lost feature from last season, especially the discussion in the comment thread, I came to a moment of revelation.

I have no idea what’s been going on on Lost.

And I don’t just mean in the season finale. I have virtually no memory of the entire season 4. Just now, when I mentioned Sun buying her father’s company? I didn’t remember that until I went back and read Jay’s last Get Lost post, where it’s mentioned in the comments. And right now almost the only other things I can remember from season 4 are the ones that were prompted by the season 5 promos I just watched.

This is weird, because I remember season 3 pretty well, even though it’s older, and (like all other sentient life forms) I liked season 4 a lot better than season 3. What gives?

I have a theory, and it’s not a comforting one. Everyone breathed a collective sigh of relief when we saw the last few episodes of season 3 and it became clear that the creators had gotten the message: the plot needs closure. The questions need to be answered. And as season 4 progressed, it seemed ever more clear that the creators were no longer just stringing us along (as I think it’s pretty clear they were in season 3, and probably were by at least season 2) but were moving things toward a satisfying conclusion.

But is it too little, too late? Was season 4 really as good as we thought it was? Or was J.J. Abrams just playing with our heads again?

You know, the more I think about it, the more I’m convined that man has some kind of mind control power. I kept watching Alias all the way to the end of the final season, but in retrospect, I have no idea why. This must be what people feel like on Star Trek after some alien has possessed them and made them sabotage the ship – they stumble around the brig asking “what the heck was I doing?” (So I guess they got the right man to direct the big comeback picture for the Trek franchise, huh?)

During season 4, we thought we had broken Abrams’ evil mind control spell. But was that just what he wanted us to think? (And if so, how could we know?)

By two-thrids of the way through season 3, which is where it started moving back from the brink, this show had accumulated a lot of amorphous mystery. If season 4 was really doing such a great job of pulling it all together, wouldn’t I remember it? Any of it?

So I’m sending out a bleg to all you Lost fans out there. Do you remember season 4, and does it seem as good to you now as it did in May? Is the show really any less aimless now than it was, say, at the end of season 2?

In the meantime, my “we’re all J.J. Abrams’ zombie slaves” theory does give me one reason for hope. Alias may have reeked for two straight seasons, but the big finale did in fact draw together the many loose ends of the convoluted plot in a highly satisfying way. So maybe we have grounds for hope that we’ll get the same from Lost – and clearly we aren’t going through a two-year reekfest on the way there.


PJM on Colleges – and PJM Column Authors – Who Lack the Guts to Punish Cheating

December 3, 2008

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

You may have heard about the Texas prof who was fired for publicly disclosing the names of students he caught cheating. Pajamas Media carries a somewhat confessional column today in which I discuss the role of the Internet (which, contrary to popular opinion, makes cheating harder rather than easier) and the rise of educational lawsuits (which colleges have responded to by abdicating their traditional disciplinary role), but also reflect, without satisfaction, upon my own experience dealing with a cheater:

The fear of lawsuits only compounds the difficulty of what is already a difficult decision. Even with the strongest possible intellectual conviction that it’s the right thing to do, actually imposing a punishment on a fellow human being takes a certain amount of moral courage. It takes some guts.

The isolation of the teacher as the lone defender of honesty in the classroom only makes it much more difficult to do the difficult but necessary thing when the time comes. And this, again, is something I can testify about from personal experience.

I regret to say that when I confronted my cheater, I chickened out.

What I ended up doing in the end, instead of what I had resolved to do and then didn’t have the courage to do, actually might be a good model for how to deal with a cheater. Of course, I’d rather have discovered it through intelligence rather than cowardice. As C.S. Lewis says, only fools learn by experience, but at least they do learn.


“When You’re in the Red, Listen to Fred”

December 2, 2008

 

fred-thompson-hunt

“This bailout will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.”

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Fred Thompson on nonstop bailouts: “If you work in New York in a tall building making millions of dollars every year, it’s called ‘leverage.’ If you’re livin’ anywhere else, it’s called ‘living above your means.'”

Jim Geraghty quips: “When you’re in the red, listen to Fred.”


Sidwell Friends, America’s Worst School

November 26, 2008

sidwell-friends

Sidwell Friends Middle School Building

“Brand new, but built to look obsolete and run down!”

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Two weeks ago, Jay ruffled a few feathers by arguing that we shouldn’t care where President Obama’s children go to school. His point was that it isn’t necessarily hypocrisy for school choice opponents to send their kids to private schools, if they believe that private education is valuable (and thus something they’re willing to pay to acquire) but not the kind of thing government should subsidize to ensure equal access.

At the time, my response was that I totally believe Obama opposes school choice because he thinks government shouldn’t be in the business of ensuring that rich and poor alike have equal access to valuable goods and services, and I eagerly look forward to seeing this prinicple applied to his positions on welfare, health care, housing, labor policy, the environment, economic bailouts, entitlements, farm subsidies, taxes . . .

This morning, Jonah Goldberg argues that yes, Obama’s choice of Sidwell Friends while he opposes school choice makes him a hypocrite – but hypocrisy is overrated as a sin (this is a longtime hobbyhorse of Goldberg’s) and the real scandal is simply Obama’s (and other politicians’) opposition to choice. I couldn’t agree more.

But maybe school choice isn’t the only reason we should be interested in where the Obamas send their kids to school. This week, America’s Last Education Labor Reporter points out that Sidwell Friends is in abominable shape, and in desperate need of improvement:

It would be a shame if the Obama kids were to miss out on all these benefits, so we humbly submit these additions and subtractions to make Sidwell Friends the type of school the experts want all schools to become:

* Add a unionized workforce and a collective bargaining agreement. NEA asserts “that the attainment and exercise of collective bargaining rights are essential to the promotion of education employee and student needs in society.” How can the Obama kids have their education needs filled without agency fee, release time, grievances, binding arbitration and strikes?

 

* Add geographic enrollment boundaries. The Obamas will reside 3.5 miles from one Sidwell campus and 8 miles from the other, located in the state of Maryland. What’s next, flying in the next generation of Kennedy kids via helicopter from Massachusetts? Limit enrollment to those in the immediate neighborhood.

 

* Subtract weak teacher benefits. According to the Sidwell web site, teachers pay 10-40% of their health insurance premiums, pay into a defined contribution retirement plan, and receive only two personal days a year.

 

* Add diversity. The Obama kids will become part of the 39% of Sidwell students who are racial/ethnic minorities. But the DC Public Schools are 95% racial/ethnic minorities. How can the Obama children be denied so much of the rich cultural mix our nation’s capital provides?

 

* Subtract religion. The Quaker tradition is part of daily life at Sidwell Friends, including weekly worship meetings for all students, Quaker or not. This isn’t very inclusive of the Catholics, Muslims, Hindus, Wiccans and animists among the student body. Religious beliefs should only be studied from an academic standpoint and never practiced within a school’s walls.

 

* Add to the curriculum. Grades PreK-4 emphasize things like phonics, handwriting, vocabulary, comprehension, grammar, fractions, algorithms, geometry, and American history. Upper grades are heavy with English literature, advanced math, history, science, foreign languages and the arts. There isn’t much “getting information from television, film, Internet, or videos” or “Represent multiplication as repeated addition” for lower grades, or “Identify the countries, such as Italy, Poland, China, Korea, and Japan, where large numbers of people left to move to the United States at the end of the 19th and early 20th centuries” for upper grades. We don’t want to saddle a 21st century President with an 18th century curriculum.

 

As patriotic Americans, how can we stand by while our president’s family gets such substandard services?

Or maybe we shouldn’t be worried. After all, family and environmental influences are the only real determinants of educational outcomes. And clearly the Obama children are well blessed in that respect.

Or maybe we should be worried. After all, the Obamas did pick this shockingly substandard school, even though they had the opportunity to go with the nation’s most lavishly funded and heavily unionized schools in the D.C. public system, so how smart can they be?


James Madison’s Case for Federal Education “Mandates”

November 19, 2008

madison

If you’re looking for an education secretary, Mr. Obama . . .

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

In a letter to Wall Street Journal on Friday, Pete Hoekstra follows the well trod path of populist conservatives who demonize “federal” interference in education and demand that power be handed back to “local schools.” (To his credit, Hoekstra also mentions school choice.)

Populist right-wingers need to learn that teachers’ unions and their allies laugh all the way to the bank when conservatives demand “local control” and romanticize the “local school.” The unions have a hammerlock on local school politics. The further you go down the chain geographically, the more power they have. Nobody votes in school board elections except school employees and their families and friends. They hold the elections at inconvenient times precisely to produce this result. Thus, local communities typically have little practical control over their own school boards. The school boards consider the staff unions representing teachers and other school employees to be their primary constituents. When the demands of school staff interfere with the needs of students, the school boards favor the staff.

If you want to know why so many of our schools are run as jobs programs and don’t produce a decent education, “local control” is how it’s done.

There are worthy criticisms of NCLB. Interference with local control isn’t one of them.

The “mandates” of NCLB aren’t even mandates. They’re conditions for funding. The federal government gives states tons of (my) money to participate in NCLB. Doesn’t it – don’t I – have a right to ask states to provide transparent data reporting and measurement of outcomes in return? And if the states are getting a bad deal, they can stop taking the money.

Whenever I point this out, the critics respond that states can’t be expected to turn down federal money no matter what terms it’s offered on. Well, if so, then the problem here isn’t with the federal government, is it?

But there’s a larger philosophical issue here. People think that pure, unsullied federalism requires not only that the federal government excercise no coercive power over areas of state authority, but that it exercise no form of influence whatsoever.

This is false, and for my authority I appeal to the original “federalists”: the authors of the Federalist Papers.

Federalist #47 and #48 take up an argument advanced by “the more respectable adversaries to the Constitution” – namely, that the Constitution fails to create a true separation of powers among the legislative, executive, and judicial branches because it allows each brach to influence the others. The president can veto legislation, the Senate gets to vote on cabinet members, etc.

Madison points out that there can be none of those crucial “balances and checks” between the separate branches if they exercise no influence over one another. A proper separation of powers not only permits but requires that each branch have some substantial beachhead of influence within each of the other branches:

Unless these departments be so far connected and blended as to give to each a constitutional control over the others, the degree of separation which the maxim [that powers must be separated] requires as essential to a free government can never in practice be duly maintained . . . . It will not be denied that power is of an encroaching nature, and that it ought to be effectually restrained from passing the limits assigned to it . . . . Will it be sufficient to mark, with precision, the boundaries of these departments in the constitution of the government, and to trust to these parchment barriers against the encroaching spirit of power?

This passage is the indispensible context – the “backstory,” as they say in Hollywood – for understanding the much more famous Federalist #51.

In #47 and #48, Madison shows that “pure” separation of powers is insufficient. In #49 and #50 he considers and rejects Jefferson’s position that government encroachments can be resisted by frequent appeals to the people. In #51, he draws the conclusion: true separation of powers requires not that powers be totally separate but precisely that they must be separated and then mixed or blended:

As all these exterior provisions are found to be inadequate, the defect must be supplied by so contriving the interior structure of the government as that its several constituent parts may, by their mutual relations, be the means of keeping each other in their proper places . . . . The great security against a gradual concentration of the several powers in the same department consists in giving to those who administer each department the necessary constitutional means and personal motives to resist encroachments of the others.

Whereupon he launches into the famous passage about ambition counteracting ambition, etc.

The real argument of Federalist #51 is not that we need a separation of powers – that argument comes in #47 – but that we need a certain kind of separation of powers. Specifically, the kind that allows each branch to have some power over the other branches.

Now, obviously this is all in the context of the separation of legislative, executive, and judicial powers, not the division of powers among local, state, and federal governments. But it seems obvious to me that the same principle applies – it would be dysfunctional for each level of government to have no influence over the others.

Of course, most of the founders did not envision the federal government influencing states and localities by offering them money. But it was always one of the very few great weaknesses of the original Constitution that it failed to clearly deliniate the boundaries of local, state, and federal responsibilities, and to provide institutional mechanisms to shore them up. It seems to me that in the phenomenon of what might be called “conditional federal subsidies,” like NCLB, we have stumbled unwittingly into a not-too-bad mechanism for allowing the federal government to influence states without directly taking over their operations.

As I said, there are legitimate criticisms of NCLB. The 100% proficiency promise is absurd. My own position has always been that the really valuable contribution of NCLB has been the mandate for transparent data reporting and testing.

But to say that it violates federalism to have the federal government attach conditions when it offers subsidies strikes me as not only incorrect, but an open door to unchecked power for “local” constituencies like the unions.


Ohio Charters Save Money for Public Schools and Taxpayers

November 14, 2008

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

It’s raining studies! After this one and then this one comes a study out today from Matthew Carr and Beth Lear of the Buckeye Institute. It’s a fiscal analysis of how charter schools impact the finances of regular public schools in Ohio’s “Big 8” cities.

When a student leaves a regular public school for a charter school (or a private school for that matter), the district loses the state revenue stream associated with that student, but it gains on the local revenue side because local revenues don’t go down, allowing the district to take that student’s share of local funds and redirect it to funding the education of the students who remain behind. The net fiscal impact depends on which is bigger, the state revenue stream per student or the local property taxes per student.

Carr and Lear find that in Ohio’s Big 8, the regular public schools are fiscal winners when students leave for charter schools. The biggest savings are in Cincinnati, where the net gain is $4,030 per student; the lowest is in Canton, where the net gain is $918 per student.

Charters in Ohio’s Big 8 also keep overall educational costs down by providing a better education (as Carr’s previous work in Ohio has shown) for less money per student.


Dallas ISD Caught Faking SS Numbers – And Keeps Doing It

November 14, 2008

scot_free_mug

HT Scot Free

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

The Dallas Morning News is reporting that Dallas ISD was caught making up Social Security numbers for illegal immigrants in order to get them on the payroll quickly, especially as bilingual ed teachers.

Specifically, they were caught in 2004. And told by the state that it was illegal. And naughty. And they should stop.

And they’re still doing it right now.

But remember, public schools are transparent and accountable to the community, while private schools are unregulated and dangerous, and don’t have strong civic values!

Like most websites, the Dallas Morning News site automatically provides links to related stories. Here’s what comes up as related to this one:

“Unused Workbooks Are Tossed Out at Dallas School, Violating Policy”

“Dallas ISD Announces $64M Budget Shortfall”

Maybe they could make up that shortfall if they hired some of the geniuses here in Wisconsin who invested all the school funds in shady securities. None of them is going to face any kind of disciplinary or legal ramifications for their malfeasance with public funds, so there’ll be no smudges on those resumes that might make it hard for another school system to hire them and benefit from their services.


Pass the Popcorn: You Know His Name

November 14, 2008

silhouette-roulette

HT Web Design Library

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

After the U.S. entered World War II in 1941, it was formally at war with Germany, but American attention was primarily focused on the Pacific theater. This was only natural given that the impetus for our engagement was Pearl Harbor, but another contributing factor was widespread anti-British sentiment among American elites. This animus against Britain had been one of the key causes of America’s prewar isolationism, and Churchill worried that he would have difficulty drawing the U.S. into full engagement in the European theater.

Casting about for some way to counteract this problem, Churchill lit on the idea of rounding up some charming and sophisticated English gentlemen – some of whom weren’t previously contributing much to the war effort, or anything else for that matter – and sending them to Washington on a combined charm offensive/intelligence gathering mission. Led by Roald Dahl (yes, that Roald Dahl) their job, recently recounted in Jennet Conant’s The Irregulars, was to wine and dine the American elites in order to 1) improve their impression of Englishmen and 2) keep their ears open for any useful rumors. Whether the Charge of the Aristo Brigade accomplished much for the war effort is doubtful, but there is at least one respect in which the program had a major impact on world history.

One of the men sent to Washington on this “espionage as aristocratic glamorfest” mission was Ian Fleming. The rest is history.

In his paean to Fleming, Mark Steyn observes that all the basic elements that make Bond what he is were present right from the beginning in the first book, Casino Royale – and that the 2006 “reinvention” of the Bond movie franchise in the film version of Casino Royale consists in the filmmakers having done away with all the cornball stuff that the earlier movies had added to that basic foundation over the years, allowing the core Bond to shine through. As the title song says, “The coldest blood runs through my veins/You know my name.”

Now, from what we can tell in the previews of the new film, it appears that Marc Forster (no relation, alas) is adding another innovation to his vision of Bond – storylines that span multiple movies. Bond has had recurrent villains before, of course, but never an ongoing storyline. The rise of epic storylines has recently done wonders for network television, after having been pioneered on high-quality niche shows like Farscape and Buffy the Vampire Slayer. And at about the same time network TV was noticing the narrative power of season-long story arcs, The Lord of the Rings proved that movie audiences were open to ongoing storylines across multiple movies. Now Forster wants to take things to the next level and try doing it with movies that aren’t growing out of a preestablished book series (like The Lord of the Rings) where the epic story arc is already well established and has a fan base. It’s daunting, but it’s the next natural step to take.

And where better to try it than with James Bond? Nobody realized it until now – well, nobody but Marc Forster and the rest of his creative team – but with hindsight, the franchise has always been begging for this. And nowadays, when it’s so much harder than it used to be to get audiences to see espionage as material for epic drama, it’s a genius move. I can’t seem to find it now, but one clever fan put together a desktop image for the new movie consisting of flames formed into a ghostly image of Vesper Lynd, with the tagline “payback’s a bitch.” (If you get the reference, you’re a true Bond fan.) Bond has pursued villains, even Blofeld himself, out of vengence for a girl before, but making that the whole ongoing reason for his neverending war with SPECTRE is absoultely brilliant. 

Though of course it hasn’t been called SPECTRE for a long time now, due to an inconclusive legal battle 47 years ago (no kidding) over the rights to the movie Thunderball – ironically, one of the worst Bond films ever made. Or perhaps it’s more karmic than ironic: when the producers allowed Bond to become nothing more to them than an excuse to make money, they incurred divine wrath, manifested in the loss of the SPECTRE name.

When I was a teenager, I played the official James Bond role playing game and they called the criminal conspiracy TAROT, and each of the organization’s divisions was named after a Tarot card. (I forget what TAROT stood for.) In the video game based on From Russia With Love a few years ago they were calling it Octopus. In the new movie it’s now called Quantum. But we all know it’s really SPECTRE.

The producers waiting for resolution of this same legal battle is also the reason there were no Bond films between License to Kill (1989) and Goldeneye (1995). And it wasn’t until 2001 that the rights to the James Bond character were unambiguously settled on one rightsholder. But they still only got the character – the other material from Thunderball, such as SPECTRE, is still too radioactive to touch.

Shudder to think that about half the country wants the judges to rule us, even though the judges can’t even look after James Bond properly. I mean, if they can’t be bothered to provide a clear resolution of a conflict when something as important as James Bond is on the line, why are we surprised that they have trouble deciding whether or not it makes sense to require American servicemen to die for the sake of a paperwork error?

In this edition of Pass the Popcorn I forego the traditional review of the franchise from its origin to the present day, not only because the task is too great for me, but also because I’ve already offered a unified field theorem of the Bond franchise and there’s no need to reinvent the wheel.

Expectations for Quantum of Solace are, of course, enormous. That’s more or less inevitable when you make a sequel to a groundbreaking film. So, my fellow Bond fans, the name of the game now is anticipation control. The great secret to movies is to just go in and enjoy what’s there, if there’s anything at all to be enjoyed. Critical evaluation can come later. It’s hard enough to do when expectations are low, as the critical response to Speed Racer showed. It’s all the harder when expectations are high.

Alas, I won’t be able to see it opening weekend. But it looks like I can probably contrive to see it next weekend. Until then: arm yourself, because no one else here will save you.