Are Schools Prepared for the Flu?

August 11, 2009

Just because the current influenza epidemic has been relatively mild doesn’t mean that it will continue to be so.  If you want to read something scary, check out this paper by noted flu researcher, John M. Barry.  Barry is a distinguished scholar at the Tulane University Center for Bioenvironmental Research and author of the award-winning book on the 1918 flu pandemic, The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History .

In the new paper, Barry writes:

The novel H1N1 virus [the current swine flu] seems thus far to be following the pattern of the first three pandemics, and it seems highly likely that it will return in full flower. If the virus is fully adapted to and efficient at infecting humans, this would occur soon, possibly during the influenza season in the southern hemisphere or possibly a few months later in the northern hemisphere. The 1918 and 1957 viruses both exploded in September and October in the northern hemisphere, even though this is not the influenza season….

The most disturbing pieces of information are two:

First, unlike seasonal influenza viruses, novel H1N1 seems to have the ability to bind to cells deep in the lung, which H5N1 does and which the 1918 virus could do.

Second, molecular biology has provided is that, according to scientists at CDC and elsewhere, “genetic markers predictive of adaptation to humans are not currently present in the [H1N1] viruses, suggesting previously unrecognized determinants could be responsible for transmission.” This suggests two things: first, this virus may have other things to teach us; second, we do not know the whole story of how influenza becomes transmissible from human to human, so our monitoring of H5N1 for these markers is incomplete.

Novel H1N1 also lacks genetic markers for virulence identified in the 1918 virus and is expected to remain a mild virus, but this information about transmissibility has unsettling implications.

H5N1 continues to infect and kill people, and Robert Webster, one of the most respected virologists in the world, has expressed concern about a further reassortment of novel H1N1 with H5N1. This is not so far-fetched. A recent laboratory study in which ferrets (the usual animal model for influenza studies) were coinfected with H5N1 and the seasonal H3N2 virus found that a new reassortant virus with genes from both was produced 9 percent of the time.This reassortant was likely much milder than H5N1 itself. (H5N1 is virulent because it binds only to receptors deep inside the lung; other influenza viruses bind to receptors, usually in the upper respiratory tract; the reassortants all were found in the upper respiratory tract.) But given the lethality of H5N1, a reassortant that includes it is frightening. Assuming H1N1 matures to full pandemic status and begins to infect 20 to 40 percent of the population, reassortment with H5N1 is a threat.

Let me translate — the current swine flu, called novel H1N1, is easily transmitted but relatively mild.  The same was true in the first waves of past pandemics.  But if there is a reassortment, a mixing, of H1N1 with the more lethal but less transmissible avian flu, H5N1, we are in for big trouble.  Laboratory experiments with ferrets suggest that the two might mix to combine the transmissibility of one with the lethality of the other. 

Don’t be fooled by the mild first wave.  The mixing could take place in a second or third season, as it did in 1918.

If this does happen we will have all sorts of things to worry about, but one of them is what we do about education.  Despite headlines declaring Swine Flu Should Not Close Most Schools, Federal Officials Say, we may well have to close large numbers of schools.  If that happens do we have contingency plans prepared?  Do we have plans to provide education even if large numbers of students have to stay at home?  Will we have procedures for using phone and internet technologies to disseminate assignments and instruction?

I’m willing to bet that fewer than 10 of the 10,000 school districts in the country have workable emergency plans ready for a deadly flu pandemic.  Just look at the school districts around New Orleans.  It’s not as if school districts all along the Gulf of Mexico should be surprised that a hurricane might hit and close school for several weeks.  It’s likely to happen at least with some districts on a fairly regular basis.  And yet none of them had workable plans for how to educate students when the schools closed.  They just relied on sending many of those students to other cities outside of the impacted area or leaving them to wander the streets.

But what will happen when schools all over the country are closing because of a deadly flu pandemic?  We won’t just be able to send the kids to some other, unaffected city.  Let’s hope and pray that it won’t happen, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be prepared in case it does.


Schoolhouses, Courthouses, and Statehouses

August 9, 2009

The new book from Rick Hanushek and Alfred Lindseth, Schoolhouses, Courthouses, and Statehouses, is a remarkably comprehensive and accessible review of K-12 education reform strategies.  It’s a must-read for education policymakers, advocates, and students — at both the graduate and undergraduate levels.  Even experienced researchers will find this to be an essential reference, given its broad sweep and extensive citations.

The book basically makes four arguments.  First it establishes how important K-12 educational achievement really is to economic success and how far we are lagging our economic competitors in this area.  Second, it demonstrates the dominance and utter failure of input-oriented reform strategies, including across-the-board spending increases and class-size reductions.  Third, it describes how the court system has perpetuated failed input-reform strategies after having bought intellectually dishonest methods of calculating how much spending schools really need.  And fourth, it makes the case for reform strategies that involve “performance-based funding,” including merit pay, accountability systems, and choice.

None of these arguments is original to this book.  But to the extent that others have made these arguments, they have drawn heavily on Rick Hanushek’s research.  In this book you get to hear it directly from the source and you get to hear it all so persuasively and completely.

If I have any complaint about the book it is that they are too restrained in their criticisms of the methods by which adequate school spending has been determined and the “researchers” who have developed and profited from those methods.  These fraudulent analyses have justified court decisions ordering billions of dollars to be taken from taxpayers and blown ineffectively in schools.  And the quacks promoting these methods have made millions of dollars in consulting fees in the process.

Those methods include the “professional judgment approach,” which essentially consists of gathering a group of educators and asking them how much money they think they would need to provide an “adequate” education,  Naturally, they need flying saucers, ponies, and a laser tag arena to ensure an adequate education. 

Another method is the “evidence-based approach,” which selectively reads the research literature to identify what it claims are effective educational practices.  It then sums the cost of those practices while paying no attention to how many are really necessary for an adequate education or whether any of them are really cost-effective.

There is also the “successful schools approach,” which looks at how much money a typical successful school spends and calls for all schools to spend at least that much.  This of course ignores the fact that many successful schools spend less than the typical amount and are still successful.  One would have thought it impossible for them to be successful with less money than that deemed necessary to succeed. 

And lastly, there is the “cost-function approach.”  This approach takes the conventional finding that higher spending, controlling for other factors, has little to no relationship with student achievement, and then turns that finding on its head.  It does this by switching  the dependent variable from student achievement to cost.  The question then becomes: how much each unit of achievement contributes to school costs.  Switching the dependent variable does nothing to change the lack of relationship between spending and achievement.  If you hide behind enough statistical mumbo-jumbo you can hope that the courts won’t notice that there is still virtually no relationship between spending and achievement controlling for other factors.

The Hanushek and Lindseth book lays all of this out (see especially chapter 7), but they are remarkably restrained in denouncing these approaches and the people who cynically profit from them.  I don’t think we should be so restrained.  The promoters of this snake oil are often university professors with sterling national reputations.  They’ve cashed in those reputations to market obviously flawed methods.  We shouldn’t let them do this without paying a significant price in their reputation.

The University of Southern California’s Larry Picus, and the University of Wisconsin’s Allan Odden, are both past presidents of the well-respected American Education Finance Association.  They shouldn’t be able to sell the “evidence-based approach” to 5 states for somewhere around $3 million without people pointing and laughing when they show up at conferences.

I know that Rick Hanushek and Alfred Lindseth are too professional and scholarly to call these folks frauds, but I’m not sure what else one could honestly call them.  Rick comes close in his Education Next article on these school funding adequacy consultants, entitled, “The Confidence Men.”  But in this book,perhaps with the tempered emotions of his co-author,  he adopts a more restrained tone.  Perhaps this is all for the best because the book maintains the kind of scholarly temperament that strengthens its persuasiveness to those who would be more skeptical. 

This has been a great year for education reform books.  Schoolhouses, Courthouses, and Statehouses joins Terry Moe and John Chubb’s Liberating Learning, released earlier this summer, as members of the canon of essential education reform works.


Double Dipping

August 4, 2009

At a time when nearly 10% of American workers are unemployed, taxes are rising, families are tightening their belts, and the federal government has showered more than $100 billion in stimulus money on K-12 schools to avoid cuts, we are seeing a slew of newspaper articles about “double dipping” in education.  Double dipping is the practice of “retiring” from an education job and then, because of loopholes in teacher pension plans, returning to work with full pay and full pension benefits.  By doing so they can increase the money they take home by about 60%  for doing the same job (it varies across state plans and individual circumstances).  It’s a nice deal if you can get it.

A quick Google News search for double dipping teacher retirement yields the following 15 articles from 7 different states in the last month alone.  Maybe after seeing their ranks decimated by layoffs and pay-cuts reporters aren’t as eager to promote the false grievance of the starving teacher.

Contract allows one county to beat ‘double dipping’ law

Sarasota Herald-Tribune – Christopher Curry – ‎7 hours ago‎

But the School Board has grown divided over the DES of Florida contract this year, as double dipping has drawn increased scrutiny from lawmakers and the …

Pension limit lifted for working retirees

Arkansas Democrat Gazette – Andy Davis – ‎Aug 3, 2009‎

The income limit was imposed decades ago to “prevent the perception of double-dipping,” she said. But the retirement system had no way of making sure all …
The Plain Dealer – cleveland.com – ‎Aug 2, 2009‎
by The editors “Double-dipping” has been a fact of Ohio life for decades. In its purest form, the practice of letting some public workers bank both a full …

Teachers delay union negotiations

Winona Post – Cynthya Porter – ‎Jul 29, 2009‎

“You over-cut staff and now you’re really double dippingto bring them back.” After the meeting ended on that contentious note, Seeley said he was vexed by …

Vote postponed on raise for South Euclid-Lyndhurst superintendent

Sun News – cleveland.com – Ed Wittenberg – ‎Jul 29, 2009‎

Moores said the double-dipping aspect of a retire-rehire deal seems like a conflict of interest to him. “There are a lot of young, energetic teachers out …

EDITORIAL >>Taxpayers robbed again

Arkansas Leader – ‎Jul 29, 2009‎

After 30 years (now 28) of teaching, they could stop their payroll contributions to the Teacher Retirement System, and while they would not start drawing …

School Board ‘Retirees’ Pulling In $3.4 A Year

Broward New Times – Bob Norman – ‎Jul 27, 2009‎

Ricky Frey making nearly $320000 off of a popular state retirement scam for government officials that basically allows triple-dippingand opulant take home …

Teachers see retire-rehire practice end

Fort Wayne Journal Gazette – Angela Mapes Turner – ‎Jul 26

Lee educators get DROP on law’s loophole

The News-Press – ryan lengerich – ‎Jul 25, 2009‎

The so called “double dipping” has caused controversy, especially for elected officials. Appraiser Ken Wilkinson took all December off, just a month after …

Saturday special: Double dippers

Arkansas Times – ‎Jul 25, 2009‎

For elected officials, it’s an even sweeter double-dip because they can double-count their years of service. That means their retirement pay might equal …

More on double dipping

Arkansas Times – ‎Jul 23, 2009‎

Double dipping is rampant throughout the ranks of state government — and legal. Teachers got on the train early with the T-drop retirement programs that …

Geiler lands at Providence Day

CharlotteObserver.com – Langston Wertz Jr – ‎Jul 21, 2009‎
… come back to a new job, where he could collect retirement plus a new paycheck. “I sat at home and all these thoughts about how I’d double dip,” he said. …
Silver City Sun News – Nick Mandel – ‎Jul 20, 2009‎
Or the double-dipping practice, allowing former retired state and local government employees to return to work for public-sector organizations and continue …
Examiner.com – ‎Jul 14, 2009‎
We also need to halt the seemingly endless accumulation of sick and vacation days. Double dipping needs to end, too. No rehire after retirement. …
Muncie Star Press – Joy Leiker – ‎Jul 12, 2009‎
But school officials dismiss the notion they’re double-dipping. “I think most people see it as a savings for the corporation,” said Cowan Community Schools …
(edited for typo)

The People’s Front of Judea Merges with the Judean People’s Front

July 31, 2009

This item just in from the AP:

 Anti-Wal-Mart groups merge

Two union-backed groups that have spent years criticizing Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s wages and benefits say they’re going to merge.

 Wal-Mart Watch, backed by the Service Employees International Union, the United Food and Commercial Workers Union’s WakeUpWalmart.com announced Friday they’ll combine efforts to pressure the world’s largest retailer.

The new group will be called Watch Wal-Mart Wake Up, or something like that.  If only they could work on helping Reggie become a woman.

UPDATE:  I sit corrected.  It was Stan, not Reggie, who wanted to become Loretta and have babies.  Thanks to The Minnesota Kid for pointing out my error.


Bailouts are Bad — For Teachers as Well as Bankers

July 31, 2009

The Wall Street Journal has a front-page piece today on bonuses paid to employees at banks that had received federal bailout money:

Nine banks that received government aid money paid out bonuses of nearly $33 billion last year — including more than $1 million apiece to nearly 5,000 employees — despite huge losses that plunged the U.S. into economic turmoil…. The $32.6 billion in bonuses is one-third larger than California’s budget deficit. Six of the nine banks paid out more in bonuses than they received in profit. One in every 270 employees at the banks received more than $1 million.

Now, I’ve got nothing against banks (or any other organization) paying large bonuses to their employees — if they do it with their own damn money!  Whatever compensation and hiring system they adopt should yield improved results.  If it doesn’t, the shareholders should experience the consequence of having a foolish compensation and hiring system.  But it makes absolutely no sense to insulate shareholders from the consequences of a foolish compensation and hiring system by giving them federal funds to perpetuate their mistakes.

If this is true for banks, then it must also be true of schools.  Local school districts and states around the country have been on a teacher hiring binge over the last few decades, particularly picking up steam in the last decade.  This is a compensation and hiring scheme just like the banks have.  But instead of paying a small number of executives a huge amount of money, schools are paying a huge number of teachers a moderate amount of money. 

At some schools, as at some banks, their compensation and hiring policies have become unsustainable.  They hired more teachers than they can currently afford to pay.  Rather than making those local districts and states correct their mistakes, either by laying off teachers or raising local funds if they are truly convinced that additional teachers are educationally beneficial, we are making taxpayers nationwide enable and perpetuate those mistakes.  Similarly, providing federal money to banks enabled them to perpetuate mistakes rather than reduce compensation, lay off people, or raise additional capital from shareholders. 

We have no reason to believe that the world would have come to an end if some of those financial institutions had their shareholders wiped-out and were forced to reorganize under bankruptcy.  Similarly, we have no reason to believe that reversing some class-size reductions would have a significant negative effect on student achievement.  Class-size reductions have produced no gains in aggregate achievement and have only shown (questionable) gains in small-scale experiments where hiring additional teachers wouldn’t require hiring lower quality teachers to offset whatever benefits are derived from having fewer students per class.

If people want to be consistent, they should oppose both uses of bailout funds, for teachers as well as for bankers.


New DC Voucher Bill Introduced

July 30, 2009

According to an Alliance for School Choice press release:

Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) today unveiled a bipartisan reauthorization bill for the D.C. school voucher program.  Lieberman, along with Susan Collins (R-ME) and four other senators, introduced legislation this morning to reauthorize and strengthen the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program (OSP) for five years…

 Under Senator Lieberman’s bill, the program would be preserved and strengthened significantly. The Lieberman bill would increase scholarship amounts to $9,000 for K-8 students and $11,000 for high school students­indexing the scholarship amounts to inflation. While these amounts remain significantly below the amounts for the D.C. Public Schools, they provide the necessary increases to account for inflation over the past five years.

The bill would also:

–Give scholarship priority to siblings of students who currently participate in the program
–Require participating schools to have a valid certificate of occupancy
–Require teachers of core subject matters to have bachelor’s degrees
–Require an Institute of Education Sciences annual evaluation of the program
–Require students to take nationally norm-referenced tests

I hear that this bill addresses all of the issues raised by Senator Durbin’s bill without any of the program-killing provisions.  If Durbin is really motivated by the concerns he has expressed, such as teachers having bachelors degrees and schools reporting test results, we may be getting close to a compromise.  Of course, that is a big IF.


A Market of Memorials

July 30, 2009

When I visited the Gettysburg Civil War battlefield a few years ago I was bothered by the clutter of memorials.  There are so many scattered across the battlefield, all of different size, style, and theme, that it seemed to me that they littered what should be a pristine place.

I visited again this summer and have completely changed my mind.  It was an authoritarian impulse to think that there should be one memorial with one style and one message.  Instead, Gettysburg shows us what a market of memorials can do.  Basically, anyone able to raise enough money could build a memorial honoring a state, division, regiment,or individual.  As the Gettysburg Battlefield Wikipedia page describes the process:

The first monument to be placed on the battlefield was in the National Cemetery in 1867, a marble urn dedicated to the 1st Minnesota Infantry, the gallant regiment that was virtually annihilated on Cemetery Ridge, July 2. The first monument to be erected outside of the cemetery was on Little Round Top on August 1, 1878, when the Strong Vincent GAR Post of Erie, Pennsylvania, memorialized their namesake with a marble tablet on the spot where he was mortally wounded.  As the 25th anniversary of the battle approached, veterans groups stepped up the pace of erecting monuments and many of the state governments got into the act as well. By the 1890s, Gettysburg had one of the largest outdoor collections of bronze and granite statues anywhere in the world. For the Union side, virtually every regiment, battery, brigade, division, and corps has a monument, generally placed in the portion of the battlefield where that unit made the greatest contribution (as judged by the veterans themselves)…. There are over 1,600 monuments and markers on the field.

Yes, having over a thousand monuments on a battlefield makes it look noisy and disorderly, but freedom is noisy and disorderly.  By permitting a market of memorials, Gettysburg allowed groups of people to choose who should be honored and how that honor should be conveyed.  If there had been a strong central authority controlling battlefield memorials, as is the norm, the central authority would have decided the subjects and manner of conveying honor.  What if the central authority’s emphasis or style differed with yours?  Too bad. 

Just ask Vietnam vets and relatives what recourse they have if they oppose the controversial gash in the ground that the central authorities chose for the exclusive memorial on the DC Mall.  They can’t, as Gettysburg veterans could, just add their own memorial with their dissenting perspectives. 

And you really can see clashing perspectives among the Gettysburg memorials.  There are multiple efforts to claim credit for who saved Little Round Top for the Union.  There are different framings of the nature of the conflict.  There are different architectural visions.  It’s all there at Gettysburg in its wonderful disorderly freedom.

When I caught myself wishing for a neat and orderly battlefield memorial I could see the difficulty many of us have in really embracing liberty.  In some ways we are all little authoritarians, wishing for perfectly structured, centrally-determined, solutions to problems.  But of course, when we indulge these authoritarian fantasies, we all imagine that we will be the central authority or that the central authority will act in the way we prefer.  That rarely happens in actuality.  We need freedom, with all of its messiness and despite our desire for order and perfection, because we each differ on the nature of the desired order.  Rather than having any one of us impose his or her vision on all others, a marketplace of those visions can allow competing visions to be expressed, with the best persuading others to voluntarily agree.


JPG in CJ on SEV

July 29, 2009

Translation:  I have an article in the special summer issue of City Journal on special education vouchers.

Here is a taste:

Rather than compelling families with disabled children to contend with obstinate public school systems, we should give them the option of purchasing the services they need for their children from a private provider. That is, we should give them special-ed vouchers—good for the same amount of money that we already spend on them in the public school system—that they could then use to pay for private school. Not only would this bring better services to disabled New York students; it could also save the public money.

Many parents of disabled students have a lot of trouble ensuring that public schools give their kids an appropriate education. The parents have to know what they’re entitled to, and most do not. They must negotiate services from the local schools—but the schools are experienced in these negotiations, while the parents generally aren’t, so the schools often get away with minimizing their responsibilities. And even if parents win at the negotiating table, getting the schools actually to deliver on their promises is enormously difficult.

In the end, the only way to compel schools to keep their promises is for parents to engage in ongoing legal battles with the same people who take care of their kids each school day. Most parents have neither the resources nor the stomach to do that. Schools, on the other hand, see little downside in promising few services and delivering fewer. The worst that can happen is that courts will step in and order them to do what they were originally supposed to do; there are no punitive damages in special ed. Research by Perry Zirkel at Lehigh University also shows that courts tend to sympathize with school districts and that schools win most legal challenges from parents. And since children age, delays work to the schools’ advantage.

For all these reasons, most parents of disabled kids simply resign themselves to whatever the schools deliver—or fail to deliver.


Local Control Only When You Agree with Me

July 28, 2009

Where are the advocates of DC local control now? 

Earlier this month a majority of DC City Council members wrote a letter to Arne Duncan urging the continuation and expansion of the DC voucher program.

And today a new poll of DC voters is being released showing that “74% have a favorable view of the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program; and 79% of parents of schoolage children oppose ending the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program.” (I’ll add a link to the entire survey as soon as I can find one.  UPDATE:  Here it is.)

Is the same program that Kevin “Too Cool for Private School” Carey called “the voucher program that was imposed on D.C. by Congress“?  Did he mean “imposed” like how Congress imposes millions and millions of dollars on the DC public schools that the new survey finds “76% [of DC voters] rate … as ‘fair’ or ‘poor.”?


The Meaning to Word Ratio

July 26, 2009

Politicians haven’t just been debasing our currency; they have also been debasing our language.  Over time presidents have been talking more and more (see Jeff Tulis’ excellent book, The Rhetorical Presidency), but they’ve been saying less and less. 

This point struck me as I read the inscriptions on the Lincoln and FDR memorials during a recent visit to DC.  On Lincoln’s memorial is inscribed the entire text of two speeches, the Gettysburg Address and Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address.  The Gettysburg Address is only 244 words and the Second Inaugural has only 698.  But in less than a thousand words, these speeches say so much.

The FDR memorial has 21 quotations drawn from 18 different speeches prepared by Roosevelt.  Presumably those 559 words are the most memorable and important portions of those speeches.  Yet even these greatest hits sound empty compared to the full text of speeches inscribed on the Lincoln memorial. 

For example, one inscription on the FDR memorial reads: “In these days of difficulty, we Americans everywhere must and shall choose the path of social justice, the path of faith, the path of hope and the path of love toward our fellow men.”  These are certainly lofty sentiments, but what exactly do they mean?  What are we supposed to do to pursue social justice, faith, hope, and love?

Here are more bits of empty rhetoric from the FDR memorial: “This Generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny…” and “I pledge you, I pledge myself, to a New Deal for the American People.” and  “The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today. Let us move forward with strong and active faith.” and “More than an end to war, we want an end to the beginnings of all wars.”  They all sound great, but I have no idea what any of them really mean. 

But I know exactly what Lincoln means when he says: “Both parties deprecated war, but one of them would make war rather than let the nation survive, and the other would accept war rather than let it perish, and the war came.” Lincoln has an extremely high meaning to word ratio.  The same is true of speeches given by Washington or Jefferson.

More recent speeches by presidents are crammed with words but remarkably lacking in meaning.  George W. Bush’s second inaugural address comes in at 2,073 words, more than eight times as long as Lincoln’s.  Barack Obama’s inaugural address was 2,399 words, almost ten times as long as Lincoln’s second inaugural.  What has produced this bloat?  Empty lines like this: “On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.”

Just as there is a real cost to inflation (Keynes described it as: “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens… There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.”), there is also a cost to the debasement of political rhetoric.  Politicians talk so much and say so little that almost no one outside of those who derive a living or entertainment from it bother to pay attention.  What will happen when politicians really have something important to tell us?  Will they be the politicians who cried wolf?

This is why it is worthwhile to note and denounce empty rhetoric from politicians.  We have to increase the meaning to word ratio.