School Choice Wisconsin has released a new study by the University of Minnesota’s John Robert Warren of graduation rates for the voucher and public school systems in Milwaukee. Here’s the highlight from the release:
Based on seven years of data, Professor Warren estimates that the graduation rate for students in Milwaukee’s choice program was about 18% higher than for students in MPS. Had MPS achieved the same graduation rate as students in the MPCP, an additional 3,939 Milwaukee students would have graduated from 2003 to 2009. Based on findings in separate research reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the annual impact from these additional graduates would have been about $4.2 million in extra tax revenue and $24.9 million in additional personal income.
Warren’s research shows a general pattern of growth in Milwaukee graduation rates. From 2003 to 2009 the MPS rate grew from 49% to 70%. For the MPCP the rate grew from 63% to 82%.
Of course, this is not a causal analysis. We do not know (and the study does not claim) that the higher grad rate among voucher students is caused by the program. A forthcoming analysis by the University of Arkansas’ School Choice Demonstration Project, led by my colleague, Patrick Wolf, should be able to address that issue.
But the this descriptive report is nevertheless encouraging. Not only do voucher students graduate at higher rates than MPS students, but both sectors have been improving their graduation rates. That finding is consistent with a scenario in which choice and competition are improving outcomes for all students — public and private — in Milwaukee.
Jay P. Greene's Blog 
Jay,
I think the press release is technically incorrect. Warren doesn’t find that the MPCP graduation rate is 18% higher than MPS’s rate; rather he estimates that, had MPS 9th graders been subject to the same graduation rate as MPCP students over the same period, the MPS graduation rate would have been 18% higher than the observed rate. It’s a comparison of a hypothetical graduation rate to the observed MPS rate.
This isn’t to detract from the repot itself, which is a good teaser for the SCDP study.
Good point, JTP.
To clarify, the study does both. It takes the hypothetical number of graduates in MPS if they equaled the estimated MPCP rates in Table 2. Table 1, however, compares the estimated rates in MPS and the MPCP over the seven years of the study. During that time the overall estimated graduation rate in the MPCP was about 18% higher than MPS.
Oops, surprised I missed that. Thanks for the clarification Michael.
But while the grad rate is 18% higher at present for MPCP students it was 28% higher using the first data points. So, as I see it the graduation rate of MPS students increased at a higher rate as than MPCP students. And I take it that we are talking about all MPS students. What is the difference in grad rates between those who used a voucher and those who applied for a voucher but in the end remained in MPS? Isn’t this a more valid comparison. Otherwise you’re simply comparing students who self selected to attend a private school with the those who have no interest in staying in either programs.
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