Normally solid education reporter, Rob Tomsho, has fallen for the Arne Duncan mania by writing an article in today’s WSJ that attributes expansions of charter school laws to Duncan and the $5 billion “race to the top” stimulus money.
As a graph in the print version of the article shows, charters have been expanding steadily for the last several years — all of which was before Arne Duncan and the stimulus money. The question is whether charters are growing faster than they otherwise would have. I doubt it. The progress of charters doesn’t seem any faster to me now than it has been. After we get all of the numbers in a year or two we can check to confirm my hunch.
I’m afraid that this is just another example of post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, therefore because of this). Duncan made some speeches and conditioned some fraction of a modest sum on policy changes. There were some policy changes. So people are attributing the policy changes to his speeches and tiny financial leverage.
Posted by Jay P. Greene 
Jay P. Greene's Blog 