A Real Education Bailout

January 8, 2009

(Guest post by Greg Forster)

Over on NRO, Petrilli, Finn and Hess note that yet another radical expansion of federal education funding is reportedly being considered for inclusion in the “stimulus” package, e.g. in addition to building lots of roads and bridges, we’ll build lots of schools.

PFH (as I’ll call them for short) note that more spending has not only proven itself an ineffective way to improve schools, but may actually even harm them:

Naturally, the leaders of any organization would rather sidestep problems than confront them. In good times, budgets expand, payrolls grow, new people come on board, and managers delay difficult decisions. Tough times come to serve as a healthful (if sour) tonic, forcing leaders to identify priorities and giving them political cover to trim the fat.

So instead of more money, they advocate less:

Education, then, cries out for a good belt-tightening. A truly tough budget situation would force and enable administrators to take those steps. They could rethink staffing, take a hard look at class sizes, trim ineffective personnel, shrink payrolls, consolidate tiny school districts, replace some workers with technology, weigh cost-effective alternatives to popular practices, reexamine statutes governing pensions and tenure, and demand concessions from the myriad education unions.

And while we’re at it, I’d like a pony, and a spaceship, and a million dollars.

One thing they don’t point out is that “stimulus” spending, like all pork, is notorious for going to politically useful projects rather than to projects that serve the public interest. Just because you spend more money building bridges doesn’t mean you get the bridges that you actually need. Never mind the “bridge to nowhere” – remember that big bridge collapse in Minneapolis a while back? In the immediate aftermath, some liberals rushed to blame the deaths on hard-hearted budget cutters. But it later came out that plenty of money was being spent on road and bridge repair, but it didn’t go to the bridge that needed it, despite the bridge having been rated “structurally deficient” for two whole years.

PFH then go on to ask:

Is there a way to make the impending bailout actually help those kids as well as the nation? Team Obama and its Congressional allies could take a page out of the Troubled Assets Relief Program playbook and require the various education interest groups to “take a haircut,” just like auto workers, investors, and shareholders have had to do. As the auto bailout required the U.A.W. to forfeit its beloved “jobs bank,” states taking federal dollars could be required to overhaul their tenure laws, ban “last hired, first fired” rules, experiment with pay-for-performance, make life easier for charter schools, and curb unrealistic pension promises.

I’m not in a position to throw stones since I’ve advocated the same thing, but I’m not holding my breath.

Next on their wish list, inexplicably, is a big pile of money for summer programs. If there’s any research showing that summer programs are a good investment, they don’t cite it. To their credit, they insist that solid empirical evaluation should be a condition of the money. But if we want to set up big new federally funded pilot programs for educational innovations, why not do it for an innovation that is solidly proven to work in many limited trials but has never been tried on a larger scale?

They also wish for better data systems (who doesn’t?) and, as always, whether it’s relevant to the topic or not, “national standards.” About the latter, our own Matt Ladner has already given us what I think is really the last word.

(link added)


Eformray Ealismray

December 18, 2008

drevil3

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Well, a few days after I begged my friend Mike Petrilli to ixnay on the averickmay alktay now he has labeled the Fordham position on federal education policy making as “Reform Realism.” Get it- it’s a lot like “smart growth!”

Don’t get me wrong, even a crusty “Local Controller” like me finds things to admire about the Fordham position. But easplay, no more inguisticlay inspay!

In addition, I thought the Senate voted down national standards 98 to nothing in the late 1990s. Perhaps this is a new fantastic version of realism- but who knows what will happen next?


Team Maverick?

December 15, 2008

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Tina Fey as Sarah Palin: “John McCain and I, we’re a couple of mavericks, and gosh darn it, we’re gonna take that maverick energy right to Washington and we are gonna use it to fix this financial crisis and everything else that is plaugin’ this great country of ours.

Queen Latifah as Gwen Ifill: How will being a maverick solve the financial crisis? What will you do?

Tina Fey as Sarah Palin: You know, we’re gonna take every aspect of this crisis, and look at it, and ask ‘What would a maverick do with this situation?’ and then, you know, do that.”

Mike, pally, careful with the maverick talk! You’ve got to at least give us all some space from the election so that just hearing the word doesn’t sound like fingernails scratching a chalkboard.


Great Minds Think Alike

December 10, 2008

I’m not the only one to compare the auto bailout to K-12 educationAndrew Coulson has a great piece with that theme over at Cato.

Also, I’m not the only one to see Rorschach (or is it Horshack) inkblots in the TIMSS results spin-festRob Pondiscio over at Core Knowledge also references Horshack — er, I mean, Rorschach.  And in the forthcoming Gadfly a little birdie named Mike Petrilli told me that he also has a Rorschack/Horshack piece forthcoming.

If this continues I’m going to have to re-position my lead helmet that keeps others from reading my thoughts with their Alpha rays.


The TIMSS Rorschach Test

December 9, 2008

The Rorschach inkblot test is a psychology test that was used to assess personality and emotions.  The way in which people saw ambiguous images, like the one above, was supposed to say something about who they really were.

The same is true for the interpretations being applied to the results of the 2007 TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) released today.

Over at Flypaper, Mike Petrilli interprets the gains the US has made in math but not science as suggesting that accountability testing is shifting resources toward math and away from science: “The lesson is that what gets tested gets taught. Under the No Child Left Behind act, and state accountability systems before that, elementary schools have been held accountable for boosting performance in math and reading. There is evidence that American elementary schools are spending less time teaching science, and this is showing up in the international testing data.”

And Mike interprets the relatively good results that Minnesota had (yes, MN took the test as if it were a country) as supporting rigorous standards: “There’s also good news out of Minnesota today, which has made dramatic gains since adopting new, more rigorous math standards.”

But also at Flypaper, Diane Ravtich offers different interpretations.  She sees the gains even in math results as “actually small, only four points.”  She also declines to credit NCLB for any of those gains, even as a perverse result of resource shifting away from science.  She notes that gains were at least as large in the US during the period prior to implementation of NCLB.  And on the topic of Minnesota she takes issue with Mikes explanation for success: “Minnesota showed dramatic gains on TIMSS not because of ‘new, more rigorous standards,’ but because of that state’s decision to implement a coherent grade-by-grade curriculum in mathematics.”  Umm, I would explain the difference but I got so bored trying to distinguish standards from curriculum that I dozed off for a bit.

Rather than focusing on the gains (or lack of gains) made by the US relative to itself in the past, Mark Schneider at Education Week focuses on the comparison between the US and other countries.  He notes that while the US looks relatively strong on the TIMSS, that is distorted by the large number of  “low-performing countries in the calculation of the international average [including Jordan, Romania, Morocco, and South Africa that] drives down that average, improving the relative performance of our students.”

He further notes that we fare worse on the PISA, which reports results from the 30 OECD countries who are our major trading partners and economic competitors: “We do better in TIMSS than we do on PISA, but this is a function of the countries that participate in each, and we should not let the relatively good TIMSS results lull us into a false sense of complacency. Even in the relatively easier playing field of TIMSS, we are lagging far too many countries in overall math performance and in the performance of our best students.”

And at Huffington Post Gerald Bracey was able to offer his reaction to the results last week, before they were released.  He wrote: “It might be good to keep a few things in mind when considering the data:

1. The Institute for Management Development rates the U. S. #1 in global competitiveness.

2. The World Economic Forum ranks the U. S. #1 in global competitiveness.

3. The U. S. has the most productive workforce in the world.

4. “The fact is that test-score comparisons tell us little about the quality of education in any country.” (Iris Rotberg, Education Week June 11, 2008).

5. ‘That the U. S., the world’s top economic performing country, was found to have schooling attainments that are only middling casts fundamental doubts on the value, and approach, of these surveys…'”

Bracey also said that our students could beat up the students in other countries with higher TIMSS scores.  (Actually, I made that last bit up.)

To summarize, Mike Petrilli sees evidence supporting his past concerns about the narrowing of the curriculum and the need for rigorous standards.  Diane Ravitch sees no evidence to alter her negative view of NCLB.  Mark Schneider, the former head of the National Center for Education Statistics, sees the need to review more testing.  And Gerald Bracey doesn’t even have to see the results to know that our education system is doing a great job.  And when I look at the inkblot I see a pudgy guy with a beard and male-patterned baldness laughing.

(edited for clarity)


Education Next Ranks the Blogs

November 21, 2008

Mike Petrilli has a piece in the new issue of Education Next that ranks some of the most prominent education policy blogs.  The JPGB (that’s Jay P. Greene’s Blog) was ranked 10th according to Technorati’s authority measure, which counts the number of links to a web site in the last 180 days.  JPGB came in just behind Flypaper, to which Petrilli contributes and which was started at about the same time as JPGB.

But Education Nextis part of the dead wood media and the numbers are out of date.  They’re like so two months ago.  Rob Pondiscio over at Core Knowledge has more current numbers and added some other blogs to his list based on what was in his bookmarks.  Here is what he found:

Blog                Technorati Rank       Google Rank

Joanne Jacobs              217                    6
Eduwonkette               167                    6
Eduwonk                     146                    7
Campaign K-12           125                    6
The Education Wonks  119                    6
Flypaper                       95                     5
Jay P. Greene          93                 6
The Quick and the Ed  87                      6
Matthew K. Tabor         85                     6
Core Knowledge     84                  5
This Week in Education  79                   5
Edwize                         74                     6
Intercepts                   69                      4
Schools Matter           68                       5
Bridging Differences   66                      6
D-Ed Reckoning        56                        5
Edspresso                  46                        5
NCLB Act II                40                        5
Sherman Dorn           39                        5
Eduflack                    29                        5
Swift and Change Able 27                     5
Thoughts on Education Policy 25          4

UPDATE:  I’ve added the Google Page Rankings, which you can identify for any web site here.  Unlike Technorati, which just counts links to a site, Google Page Rank weights links by how many links the other sites receive.  This seems like a better approach but unfortunately the Google Page Ranks are only provided on a 1 to 10 scale.  Using it, Eduwonk is the king of the education policy blogs, not Eduwonkette.


The Stupidity of “Smart”

November 17, 2008

The next time I hear someone call for “smart” regulation, “smart” growth, “smart” boards, or “smart” anything I’m going to have to pull a Dr. Evil and get them to zip it — zip it good. 

Appending “smart” before something for which you are advocating is not only a very worn and tired tactic, it is also — for lack of a better word — stupid.  It’s stupid because simply labeling something as smart does not make it so.  Even worse, adding the label “smart” is intentionally ambiguous, allowing the audience to imagine that the “smart” adjective includes whatever people prefer and excludes whatever they oppose, even though everyone is imagining a different set of what is included or excluded by “smart.” 

A lot of normally smart and good people have fallen into the “smart” rhetorical ditch.  Mike Petrilli over at Flypaper was rightly opposing efforts to re-regulate education when he urged: “But the answer is not a return to old-fashioned regulation, but a move to smart regulation.”  That’s like fingernails scratching a smart board.

And sometimes the addition of “smart” negates the  noun it is modifying in an Orwellian fashion.  So, “smart” growth really seems to mean no growth or at least highly restricted growth.  That’s a fine position to take, but it is just bullying to imply that all other positions are not “smart.”  Rather than bullying others and disguising what one is really advocating with the “smart” trick, people should just come out and say what they prefer. 

Mike Petrilli prefers less regulation in education.  The proper term for that view is de-regulation, not smart regulation.  Saying de-regulation at least specifies the direction in which he thinks policy should go, while advocating for “smart” regulation reveals nothing about the preferred direction.  That doesn’t mean he favors the elimination of all regulation.  It’s just that in general he prefers less.  And he makes some effort to tell us what kinds of regulations he would like to eliminate and which should remain.

I agree with him.  But I have one regulation to propose.  Let’s stop talking about “smart” regulation. Or, if we have to develop vapid and deceptive marketing slogans for our proposals, I suggested that we follow the spirit of DJ Super-Awesome and let’s replace “smart” with “super-awesome.”  If we start talking about “super-awesome regulation” the stupidity of “smart” will be more obvious.


The Proficiency Illusion

November 13, 2008

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

I had a chance to see John Cronin from the Northwest Evaluation Association present on the Fordham Foundation’s study The Proficiency Illusion at the Arizona Education Research Organization conference last week. It was more than interesting enough to have me check out the study. From the forward by Checker and Mike:

Standards-based education reform is in deeper trouble than we knew, both the Washington-driven, No Child Left Behind version and the older versions that most states undertook for themselves in the years since A Nation at Risk (1983) and the Charlottesville education summit (1989). It’s in trouble for multiple reasons. Foremost among these: on the whole, states do a bad job of setting (and maintaining) the standards that
matter most—those that define student proficiency for purposes of NCLB and states’ own results-based accountability systems.

In short, the accountability and standards reform strategy has morphed into a pig’s breakfast. We’ve all known for some time that most states have failed to set globally competitive standards, and have monkeyed about with their cut scores. One of the revelations of the Proficiency Illusion (to me) is that many states have proficiency standards lacking internal consistency. For example, some states have incredibly low cut scores in the elementary grades, only to amp them way up in 8th grade. Parents will receive multiple notices saying that their child is “at grade level” only to shocked to learn later that they are well short.

Other types of problems exist as well. Two years ago at the same AERO conference, I saw a presentation showing that Arizona writing AIMS test had bell curves that stacked on top of each other rather than being horizontally linked across grades. In short, it was impossible to tell whether 4th graders were writing any better than 7th graders with the state exam.

Cronin’s presentation contained other insights- including just how arbitrary AYP can be. It depends hugely on the N requirement for subgroups state by state- some schools wind up with lots of subgroups and some don’t. This means that some relatively high performing schools miss AYP. In fact, Cronin demonstrated what I take to be a fairly common scenario where middle schools miss AYP but in which they perform at a higher level than all of the public school transfer options in the vicinity.

Checker and Mike go on to argue for national standards as a solution to these problems, but concede that it doesn’t seem likely. My modest suggestion on this front would be to adopt the A-Plus plan, and as states sought alternatives to AYP, to have the US Department require the creation of internally consistent standards as a starting point for negotiations. Given that the states would be able to determine their own set of sanctions (or lack thereof) I can’t see why an increase in rigor would be outside the realm of these discussions for states with absurdly easy to pass tests.

Deeply wedded to inconsistent standards? Fine- have fun with AYP and the 2014 train wreck.

In other words, if the feds would abandon Utopian nonsense like 2014 and the high quality teacher provision, they might be able to play a productive role in providing technical guidance and nudging states into better directions with their testing programs.

I am not a fan of NCLB, but even I will concede that it has to date had a net positive impact increasing transparency in public schooling. This will be lost, however, if the 2014 problem isn’t addressed, or if we go down the absurd road of portfolio assessments, and I do view transparency as vitally important.

The Proficiency Illusion shows us that much of the data we’ve been getting from state testing programs isn’t nearly as useful or reliable as imagined. This is a problem, and it must be addressed.

 


The Federal Role In Education

October 21, 2008

Mike Petrilli has an excellent piece on Flypaper about lessons for the next administration on the limits of federal involvement in education policy.  He’s reacting to a report by Sara Mead and Andy Rotherham laying out an agenda for the federal government, which presumably they will be helping administer for an Obama administration.

Having learned these lessons the hard way, Mike warns that Sara and Andy are falling into old traps despite the best of intentions.  Mike argues that giving money to favored organizations, such as KIPP charters and Teach For America to “Grow What Works” will suffer from the same flaws as the Bush administration’s efforts to give money to favored organizations, such as Reading First.  Even if the favored groups are doing great work, giving money to them will be portrayed by opponents and the media as cronyism and pork. 

In addition, Mike notes that expanding Teach For America and KIPP requires cooperation from state and local agencies to lift caps on charters, equalize funding for charters and traditional public schools, and relax certification requirements.  The problem is that state and local agencies have perfected the art of subverting federal mandates.  At best unwilling state and local agencies will minimally comply with federal requirements while eviscerating their spirit.  At worst they will defy the requirements and dare the federal government to withhold funds.  The feds generally lack the political nerve to risk the political fallout from actually applying a sanction to a local or state education agency.

Let me expand Mike’s observations to draw lessons for the future of No Child Left Behind.  Like Mike, I once believed that the federal government could use the carrots and sticks (mostly sticks) in NCLB to motivate local and state education agencies to improve.  Since I was convinced by evidence that incentive systems worked, why shouldn’t the federal government do what works? 

My mistake and the mistake of NCLB was in not considering how much implementation of those incentive systems matters.  The federal education bureaucracy lacks the familiarity with local circumstances, the nimbleness to respond to changing circumstances, and the political will to apply sanctions to properly implement an incentive system.  Incentive systems are good for education reform but the federal government is too big, slow, far-away, stupid, and cowardly to do it right. 

The same is likely to be the case when the federal government tries to expand Teacher For America and KIPP under an Obama administration.  As Andy and Sara will soon discover and as Mike has warned them, the federal government will be obstructed by unwilling local and state actors.  And the mandates the Feds issue to overcome that resistance will trample upon or fail to anticipate local circumstances.

So what can the federal government do right?  First, they can continue to improve the availability of information about the school system.  NCLB deepened and entrenched the testing requirements that 37 states had already adopted before NCLB was adopted.  Improving transparency facilitates better policy evaluation and the development of effective state and local accountability systems.

Second, the federal government can facilitate “redistributive” efforts that localities cannot pursue without being punished by collective action issues.  For example, no locality can operate a substantial special education or English language learner program without attracting more students needing services, which then drives up the costs of the programs and drives away the local tax base that pays for those programs.  (See Paul Peterson’s The Price of Federalism for a great discussion of this).  To the extent that we want redistribution, we need the federal government to mandate it.  And I fully confess that I depart from my Cato colleagues in that I think we need some (but very limited) redistribution.

Third, the federal government can fund pilot programs to experiment with new ideas and approaches.  But I should emphasize that I think the federal government has no business evaluating or paying for evaluations of those efforts.  The evaluation process in the US Department of Education and the small number of contract-research firms is far too politicized to be reliable.  Instead, the federal government should play its role of improving transparency by making data on the pilot programs it sponsors available to any qualified researcher rather than to a favored research firm.  The Feds should heavily be in the data collection and distribution business, much as the Department of Commerce makes economic data available, but they should leave analyses of those data to the market of ideas.

The failures of the Bush administration have been a humbling experience.  But we are doomed to repeat their mistakes if we do not learn from them and limit the federal role in education to what the Feds can actually do well.

(edited for typos)


McCain and Obama Agree: Competition Good for Education

October 16, 2008

Education finally came up in a presidential debate and I heard something that I never heard before — the standard-bearers for both parties agreed that competition was good for public schools.  Sure, past Democratic candidates have endorsed school choice with charters, as Obama did.  But Obama did something new.  He specifically said that competition from charter schools was important for improving traditional public schools. 

Clinton, Gore, and Kerry embraced school choice with charters as an escape hatch for students condemned to failing public schools, sounding very much like Sol Stern, Mike Petrilli, and Rick Hess.  But Obama left previous Democratic candidates and these fellows at market-oriented (?!) think tanks in the dust by saying that choice was desirable because of competition. 

Here are Obama’s exact words: “Charter schools, I doubled the number of charter schools in Illinois despite some reservations from teachers unions. I think it’s important to foster competition inside the public schools.”

Of course, Obama wants to limit choice and competition to public schools (which include charters), while McCain wants to include private schools in the mix.  But they agree on the big idea:  public schools are improved when they have to compete to earn students and the revenue those students generate.

Just think.  Only twenty years ago school choice and competition was hardly a glimmer in Ronald Reagan’s eye.  Now the idea is so widely accepted as reasonable that the leaders of both parties differ only on the mechanism for producing choice and competition.  We’ve come a long way, baby.

Correction — Rick Hess emailed to say that he did not want to be counted among those who are unpersuaded by competitive effects from choice.  He does think that almost no current choice program is designed properly to produce competitive effects, but he thinks such effects are possible and desirable.