The SAT and College Grades

June 18, 2008

(Guest post by Larry Bernstein)

Yesterday, the College Board released a study of the predicative power of the SAT to estimate a student’s college freshman year grade point average. A Bloomberg article condemned the results because of the relative ineffectiveness of the new SAT to predict college grades. The predictive power of the SAT is trivially improved by the addition of the new essay exam which adds test time and is costly to grade.

I think this should come as no surprise, and it shows the general limitations of using standardized tests to predict college grades. One of the key points made in the study is that high school grades are a better predictor versus the SAT. High school grades need to be included with the SAT to best estimate GPA. 

In my 1985 Wharton undergraduate statistics class, each student was required to create a regression research project. By chance, I chose to research predicting my classmate’s college GPA. I used 20 variables, including the SAT score, and I found only 5 variables with statistical significance: SAT score, number of hours studied, Jewish or Gentile, Wharton or other school such as the college of arts and sciences, and raised in the Northeast or elsewhere.

Similar to the national studies, in my survey of 100 fraternity brothers the SAT score did a mediocre job of predicting college GPA as a single variable. The key variable in my study was the number of hours studied. You would be surprised by the variance in Ivy Leaguers’ study habits. My survey asked students to estimate the number of hours as 1-10, 10-20, 20-30, or 30-40.  My favorite response was: “Is this per semester?” I assumed the student would realize it was per week! Work habits and effort played a critical role in estimating college GPA. Obviously, the college placement office will have difficulty estimating this variable, though difficulty of course load and number of AP classes might help.

The rest of the variables seem obvious. It is much more difficult to get into Wharton than the other programs at Penn. So it is no surprise that Wharton students were running circles around the non-Wharton students, even adjusting for SAT scores and hours studied. In addition, it is much more difficult to get into Penn from the NE than from other areas of the country.

Very few of the Jews were jocks. Needless to say my college fraternity had plenty of sample problems.

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Posted by Greg Forster

WSJ and Bloomberg Notice the Student Loan Crisis

April 24, 2008

(Guest post by Larry Bernstein)

The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg have stories on the student loan crisis.  I presume the articles were in response to my post a couple of days ago.

This is typical. I think the WSJ editorial page gets the issue wrong.  The editors blame the current crisis on new Fed limits on the allowable credit spreads.  In addition, there is a mention of an idea to allow the Federal Reserve to accept student loans as collateral at the discount window. 

I don’t think either of these issues is critical.  The key point is that students are defaulting on their loans at a rate much higher than expected.  With higher default rates and worse than expected recoveries, the loans are worth less than par.  State Street, who had bought billions of securitized private student loans in the secondary market, admitted last week that they may need to take reserves equal to as much as 10% of par.

The current crisis is not a funding crisis, or an ability to use the loans as collateral for secured financing by banks.  The problem is a basic financial problem.  The borrowers are unwilling to pay the lenders back.  There are two typical responses to this sort of problem.  The first is to stop lending until we figure out what the likely default rates are going to be and if the business makes economic sense.  This is the current lender response to the increasing rates of default in the subprime residential market.  The second response is to lend, but at much higher interest rates to cover for the additional expected losses from defaults and to cover additional risks of even greater defaults.  The market is seeing both responses from lenders.

What should public policy be for student lending?  This is clearly complicated and depends on your view of the role of government.  Do you think that the federal government should lend directly to students at a below-market rate?  The answer depends on the public’s willingness to accept substantial losses on the loans.  The market price embodies the market’s view of defaults.  Today, the market is saying that the government will lose more than 10% of the loan size.  There are $70 billion of new federally guaranteed loans each year, and both Democratic presidential candidates want to expand the program.

What is the market failure that requires government action?  Why shouldn’t the interest rates on student loans reflect the risk of the loans?  If we let the market work, banks will demand additional collateral (from the parents) at various interest rates to reflect the individual risk of the borrower.  It cannot be that whenever credit spreads go up to reflect greater risk of defaults that the government needs to step in and lend money at a below-market rate.

(As an aside, the current plan to use the FHA to solve the nation’s residential mortgage crisis will most likely result in government losses in excess of the 1980s thrift crisis.  Sadly, many years from now, Congress will investigate how this could have happened.)

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Posted by Greg Forster

The Student Loan Crisis

April 21, 2008

(Guest post by Larry Bernstein)

 

When you hear about the current financial crisis, most of the focus is on foreclosed subprime loans.  But, the financial crisis has spread to all financial products as delinquencies have increased for credit cards, auto loans, and other secured and unsecured borrowings.  Direct lenders and securitization lenders are now demanding more spread to compensate for the perceived increased risk of default. 

 

Student loans are no different from any other form of debt.  Defaults have surged in the past few months.  Despite the fact that most loans are guaranteed by parents of the students with terrific FICOs (credit ratings), many more loans are delinquent.  How bad is it?  One of the largest insurance companies that guarantee private student loans filed for bankruptcy last week.  First Marblehead, which securitizes private student loans, stock price is down more than 90% from its highs of last year as investors rightly perceive that First Marblehead’s residual claims on student loan securitizations may not be very valuable.  Bank of America which is one of the largest direct lenders in private student loans announced last week that they will discontinue making private student loans, and Bank of America will only make Federally Guaranteed student loans.

 

Based on these three events described above, the number of private student loans will decline dramatically in the week’s ahead.  There are financial and social consequences to this problem.  Students with limited access to financial means will not be able to attend their school of choice next semester.  For most students, if you cannot pay, you cannot attend.  I suppose, some students will go to school part-time, or will work part-time to make ends meet.  But for many students, they will either choose a less costly collegiate experience, defer, or will discontinue their college education. 

 

I expect for-profit colleges’ earnings to suffer with fewer students.  I have not yet shorted these company’s shares, but I will be looking into it in the days ahead.   We should expect not-for-profit college institutions to suffer as well.  Clearly Harvard will be fine.  Harvard’s endowment and student body can afford the education.  It is the poorer schools with a limited endowment and a student body that depends on private school loans to be truly hurt during this financial crisis.

 

Whenever the financial markets curtail borrowers, there will be those that cry out for additional government assistance.  We are seeing this particularly in the residential home loan market.  The government cannot make the defaults disappear.  The government will be making loans to those citizens who the market believes are not creditworthy or at a rate of interest that is insufficient for private actors to lend.  I fully suspect that if the government increases the loan sizes that it is guarantees, then we should expect substantial losses on the government’s loans.  There is no free lunch. 

 

The time of reckoning for private and public actors is next semester.

2 Comments | student loans | Tagged: , | Permalink
Posted by larrybernstein

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