(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)
A conversation with Robert Pondiscio convinced me that it would be a good idea to balance progress with overall scores. Growth is dandy after all, but it is not the end-all-be-all. So here goes with math- statewide scores for 8th graders in 2015 by overall cohort progress between 4th graders in 2011 and 8th graders in 2015. Bonus-more states labeled. It’s a slow process so if I missed a desired state just let me know in the comments.
So the high performing usual suspects do better in this chart clustered over on the right side of the horizon. The 2015 NAEP math swoon hit some states very hard- yes I’m looking at you Florida, Maryland and North Carolina. Between 2013 and 2015 these states experienced a 6 point, 4 point and 5 point drops in 8th math respectively. Florida’s case was very odd as statewide charters and Miami Dade escaped the swoon. We will see what happens when the new data is released for in 2017 in January.
Jay P. Greene's Blog 
No question that AZ is impressive. I was also cheered by the fact that Nebraska did very well, particularly since it is a state that did not adopt Common Core, and even Texas did well. VA would be of interest for the same reason. Alaska less so, because, while officially not adopting Common Core, de-facto they adopted it word for word even though (and presciently) they did not acknowledge their effective adoption (sad smile).
But could you do the same since 2003 rather than 2011? 2011 was already the beginning of Common Core, and 2013 more than a beginning.
The reason these are from 2011 to 2015 is because they are cohort gains- i.e. the same age cohort of students as 4th graders in 2011 and then 8th graders in 2015.
I could do over time gains between 2003 and 2015 but it would be a different type of gain.
So I ran it- the pattern looks fairly similar to this chart. MA has the highest 2015 8th grade math score and a good gain (10 points). So they again land in the upper right. Hawaii and Arizona show up in the high middle with scores near the national average but strong growth.
Yeah, you’re right. I wasn’t thinking. Thanks.
So where is New Mexico?
My guess is between AL and LA.
To the immediate right of the Louisiana label.
Appreciating the smaller blue marbles!