The Greene-Polikoff Wager

Morgan Polikoff thought my posts last week on the Paradoxical Logic of Ed Reform Politics were “a tad premature for the ‘CCSS are dead’ hysterics.”  I had written:

The unraveling of Common Core makes this flop the most obviously ill-conceived and doomed-to-fail reform effort since the Annenberg Foundation threw $500 million away in the 1990s.  I assure you that while the money was flowing from Annenberg that effort had plenty of defenders, just as Common Core does today.  After Common Core fails, everyone will say how they knew it was flawed, just as they currently do with Annenberg.  Victory has a thousand fathers while defeat is an orphan.

Morgan noted that “At last count, 1 state out of 45 has repealed the standards.”  I responded: “I’m sure gay marriage opponents felt similarly triumphant in 2004. How many states have effectively implemented Common Core?”

So, we have agreed upon a wager.  In ten years, on April 14, 2024, I bet Morgan that fewer than half the states will be in Common Core.  We defined being in Common Core as “shared standards with shared high stakes tests-even if split between 2 tsts.”  Given 51 states and DC, Morgan wins if 26 or more states have shared standards and high stakes tests and I win if the number is 25 or less.  The loser has to buy the winner a beer (or other beverage).

According to Heritage’s count, 15 states have already refused to join Common Core, paused implementation, or downgraded or withdrawn from participation in national tests.  I just need all of these states to continue toward withdrawal from Common Core and 11 more to join them over the next ten years.  I like my chances.

 

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9 Responses to The Greene-Polikoff Wager

  1. Dick Schutz says:

    Hey, by 2024 we’ll be 4 years past the end of the Race to the Top in 2020, and all students will be graduating from high school college and/or career ready. We’ll owe this accomplishment to “shared standards with shared high stakes tests” and the other three Assurances that defined the Race. Morgan has a sure bet.

    More Kool-Aid, anyone?

  2. Greg Forster says:

    If it’s premature to declare that the standards are doomed now, what was it when you first started saying they were doomed a few years ago?

  3. Mindy Kornhaber says:

    With $100 million down the tubes for InBloom, I think it’s possible BMGF may come to recognize the problems with its approach and stop the CC spigot within 5 years…. and the CC would then fold in <10 years. Much to my shock and surprise, I agree with JPG's wager and the blogpost that spurred it. Sorry Morgan!

  4. ewearne says:

    He must really, really want to buy you a beer. It won’t take 10 years.

  5. […] standards and the exams supposed to enable the assessment of the new standards (see Rick Hess and Jay Greene, as well as Education Week), and other states are putting delays on implementing teacher evaluation […]

  6. […] standards and the exams supposed to enable the assessment of the new standards (see Rick Hess and Jay Greene, as well as Education Week), and other states are putting delays on implementing teacher evaluation […]

  7. Mindy Kornhaber says:

    Have you gotten your beer yet, Jay?

    • I have to wait until the end of the 10 year period to collect. By then we will almost have completely forgotten what Common Core was. But the wait will make the beer taste all the better.

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