(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)
Fascinating analysis from Stratfor.com (you can sign up for free content) makes the case that it is almost showtime on the issue of Iranian nuclear weapons.
The Israelis have presented evidence to the Russians of Russian scientists being deeply involved in the Iranian bomb development program. It looks like what is being set up here is a red pill/blue pill scenario where the Russians will either have to support crippling sanctions or Israel and/or USA will take action on their own. You take the red pill, and we try sanctions. You take the blue pill, and we’ll see how much bombing the Iranians can take.
Given that much of the Iranian people already hate their regime with a well-deserved purple passion, why not try an intermediate approach? The U.S. Navy could blockade the Persian Gulf for Iranian oil shipments, and announce that the Iranian people have a set amount of time to accept U.N. weapons inspectors before a catastrophic bombing campaign begins aimed at not only destroying any nuclear capacity but also the Iranian military.
The President could tap the Strategic Oil Reserve here in the United States to ease the pain. The Iranian economy and body politic would be thrown into chaos, and there would be a chance that the Iranian military would make a rational decision regarding self-preservation.
If we had to bomb anyway, no one could say that President Obama failed to go the extra mile to avoid war.
For those of you who are instinctive multilateralists, don’t forget that Iran signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. If such treaties are to have any meaning, they must be enforced.