(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)
Football analysts tend to narrow explanations for why one team prevails to a handful of plays whereas in reality every play is of equal importance-it just doesn’t seem that way. Likewise elections are incredibly complex and we focus on a single factor only at our peril.
First let’s note that the Obama campaign worked their math problem with masterful precision. Needing blue-collar White votes in Ohio, they found a way to get them, for example. The narrow national popular vote majority plus the lopsided electoral college result is a testament to the effectiveness of the Obama campaign. George W. Bush’s team pulled off a similar victory in 2004- incumbent Presidents are tough to beat.
Having said that, the Republican ticket pulling in 27% of the Latino vote is nothing short of a dumpster fire. Moreover, note that Romney only won Texas by a little over 8 percent.
Every day between now at 2016 will involve older and predominantly Whiter Texans going off to the Rodeo in the Sky, and more and more Hispanics coming of voting age in the Lone Star State. You don’t need to spend hours fiddling around with the Real Clear Politics “Build Your Own Electoral College Map” to imagine what even a Purple Texas would do to national politics, much less a Blue one.
This of course is hardly set in stone. Republicans do have dynamic young Hispanic leaders in the Senate from Florida and Texas. Republicans however are in for a spell of finger-pointing and self-reflection. Rethinking the position of immigration deserves a spot near the top of the to-do list…
…but it doesn’t end there. Republicans should be developing an opportunity agenda that appeals not only to Hispanics, but also to others.
Congratulations to President Obama and his team. I will be very curious to see what happens next.