Some Initial Thoughts…

(Guest Post by Matthew Ladner)

Football analysts tend to narrow explanations for why one team prevails to a handful of plays whereas in reality every play is of equal importance-it just doesn’t seem that way. Likewise elections are incredibly complex and we focus on a single factor only at our peril.


First let’s note that the Obama campaign worked their math problem with masterful precision. Needing blue-collar White votes in Ohio, they found a way to get them, for example. The narrow national popular vote majority plus the lopsided electoral college result is a testament to the effectiveness of the Obama campaign. George W. Bush’s team pulled off a similar victory in 2004- incumbent Presidents are tough to beat.

Having said that, the Republican ticket pulling in 27% of the Latino vote is nothing short of a dumpster fire. Moreover, note that Romney only won Texas by a little over 8 percent.

Every day between now at 2016 will involve older and predominantly Whiter Texans going off to the Rodeo in the Sky, and more and more Hispanics coming of voting age in the Lone Star State. You don’t need to spend hours fiddling around with the Real Clear Politics “Build Your Own Electoral College Map” to imagine what even a Purple Texas would do to national politics, much less a Blue one.

This of course is hardly set in stone. Republicans do have dynamic young Hispanic leaders in the Senate from Florida and Texas. Republicans however are in for a spell of finger-pointing and self-reflection. Rethinking the position of immigration deserves a spot near the top of the to-do list…

…but it doesn’t end there. Republicans should be developing an opportunity agenda that appeals not only to Hispanics, but also to others.

Congratulations to President Obama and his team. I will be very curious to see what happens next.



4 Responses to Some Initial Thoughts…

  1. Greg Forster says:

    Henry Olsen’s annual election prediction memo, published Monday, is must reading. As always, Henry’s right about everything that matters:

    Key takeaway: Romney was the last hurrah of the Reagan coalition. He not only lost nonwhite voters but also working class whites who have been defecting from the coalition. (See Mark Steyn’s Corner post about the GOP’s disastrous showing in lily-white New Hampshire.)

    Today’s inheritors of the Reagan coalition made it seem like capitalism empowers management at the expense of labor. Now we need a new vision that doesn’t appeal simply to “the naked free market” (love that phrase – clearly a Neuhaus reference) but identifies ways in which government can act constructively by expanding opportunity.

  2. matthewladner says:

    He nailed it.

  3. […] or do voters vote pretty much the way they would even if there were no campaigns? As Matt Ladner puts it: “The Obama campaign worked their math problem with masterful precision…The narrow […]

  4. Teacher Joe in LA says:

    BUT WE MISSED IT! Newt Gingrch gave us an opportunity to win that vote THIS week when he said what is true, Americans don’t have the heart to send home illegals who have been here a long time and have established themselves. BUT instead we rallied around the narrow-minded Backmans! AAAhhhhhh! All we had to do was agree with Newt instead of making that the beginning of the end of his candidacy. Why do Republicans have to shoot ourselves in the foot.

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